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Since the Minister of Health, Adam Niedzielski, suggested that we might have to deal with the end of the epidemic, a storm has broken out in the media. Experts comment on his words, the case arouses a lot of emotions. The fact remains, however, that official data indicate a slowdown in the fifth wave. Will this trend continue? The forecast of the Institute of Health Measurements and Assessment for Poland shows that it is quite probable.
- The Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment at the University of Washington (IHME) creates forecasts for the course of the coronavirus epidemic in individual countries from spring 2020.
- Poland is also on the list of analyzed countries. The models show how the numbers of infections or deaths will be presented in the coming months
- Models also take into account various variables. It turns out that in the case of Poland, there is a way to reduce the number of deaths from COVID-19. And it’s not about a booster
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The end of the epidemic in Poland? Everything else can change
On February 15, there were 22 thousand jobs in Poland. 267 new coronavirus infections. 19 thousand 166 patients were then in hospitals, and 1092 were under a ventilator. Since the beginning of the epidemic, 108 515 people have died due to COVID-19. While these numbers may be overwhelming, they are lower than a week ago. On their basis, it can be concluded that the fifth wave in Poland is slowing down, which was suggested by the Minister of Health Adam Niedzielski himself.
His words were met with often unfavorable comments from experts. First of all, because the epidemic is not something predictable, so it is difficult to predict what will happen in the coming months. For example, we can deal with a new variant of the virus, which will turn out to be much more dangerous than Omikron, causing another tragic wave.
- Check also: Prof. Krzysztof Simon: We cannot talk about the end of the epidemic yet
We can find out from the graphs presented by the Institute of Health Measurement and Assessment at the University of Washington (IHME) what the situation may look like in the coming months if there is no significant “turn”. Since spring 2020, local scientists have been modeling the course of the epidemic in individual countries, including Poland in their calculations.
The rest of the text is below the video.
IHME forecast for Poland. The charts look optimistic
Based on the models published by IHME, we can see that virtually all analyzed parameters may show a downward trend. This applies to the number of new infections, hospitalizations and deaths. When it comes to vaccinations against COVID-19, then analysts predict that Poles will practically no longer sign up for an injection. The number of new vaccinated children will be so small that the bars on the chart will practically not budge.
As the chart shows, the peak of the wave in terms of the number of daily infections is already behind us. The models showed a downward trend since the end of January. Now we are facing a flattening of the curve.
In the case of hospitalization, the models indicate that last week’s figures were the highest. Since then, we should already observe clear declines, to an almost complete flattening at the end of May.
According to analysts from IHME, the level of vaccination of Polish society against COVID-19 will no longer increase noticeably. It seems that in the coming weeks it may stop at just over 50%.
In the coming weeks, according to IHME forecasts, people infected with the coronavirus will still die. These will not be large numbers anymore, but unfortunately more Poles will lose their lives due to COVID-19.
However, IHME researchers point to several possible scenarios. In one of them all deaths are taken into account, in the second – taking into account people who took the booster, and in the third – a situation where at least 80% the public will wear face masks.
It turns out that we can record the fewest victims in connection with the coronavirus if we remember to wear masks. The difference is even more than 200.
Do you want to test your immunity to COVID-19 after vaccination? Have you been infected and want to check your antibody levels? See the COVID-19 immunity test package, which you will perform at Diagnostics network points.
Also read:
- COVID-19 increases the risk of heart attacks and other serious diseases. Shocking data from scientists
- How to get infected with the virus? The most common mistakes
- Two weeks from infection records. Will there be a jump in deaths?
- Prof. Krzysztof Simon: We cannot talk about the end of the epidemic yet