Contents
Such a scenario of the development of an epidemic that the United States is dealing with today (the most cases of illness and death in the world) could be avoided. If the isolation had been in place two weeks earlier, the death toll would now be 90 percent. smaller, say epidemiologists.
Epidemiologists: in the US, isolation was introduced too late
On March 16, 2020, the White House in Washington issued draft social distancing guidelines that focused on closing schools and avoiding clusters of more than 10 people. Epidemiologists Britta Jewell and Nicholas Jewell in The New York Times estimate that 90 percent Cumulative deaths from COVID-19 in the United States, at least in the first phase of the epidemic, could have been avoided thanks to the implementation of the social distancing policy two weeks earlier, on March 2, when only 11 people died in the whole country. Even if the restrictions had been ordered a week earlier, on March 9, the difference would have been very large, according to researchers. According to epidemiologists’ calculations, this would result in an approximately 60% reduction in deaths.
Today, the death toll in the US has already exceeded 30. The first case of coronavirus infection was detected there on January 22.
- Also read: Coronavirus in the US also attacks young people. They account for 38 percent. hospitalized cases
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, expressed the same opinion as the Jewells on CNN’s State of the Union. Whatever the death toll in the United States may be, the cost of late regulation will be enormous – experts say the tragic consequence of the exponential spread of the virus at the beginning of the epidemic.
In the US, the dynamic increase in deaths from COVID-19 was due to the spread of the virus in New York, where isolation was only introduced on March 22. Social distancing laws are even shorter in some states (Mississippi and Florida from April 3). A completely different development of the epidemic in the neighboring states of Kentucky and Tennessee shows that even a few days’ difference in action can have a big effect. Kentucky social distancing measures have been in place since March 26, and Tennessee since March 31. As of Friday (April 10), there were 1 confirmed cases in Kentucky and 693 in Tennessee.
It’s important to understand that blockages don’t solve the virus problem, but they give us time to better prepare for the next wave of infection and to develop treatments and vaccines. Decisions on when to introduce social distancing are now largely behind us. The next key decisions will focus on when we start relaxing the home policy. […] We cannot afford to repeat the same mistakes.
The editorial board recommends:
- Coronavirus outbreak. An experiment in an Italian town showed that isolation made sense
- This is how the coronavirus spreads in the supermarket and while jogging
- Why should everyone wear face masks? Scientists explain
Have a question about the coronavirus? Send them to the following address: [email protected]. You will find a daily updated list of answers HERE: Coronavirus – frequently asked questions and answers.