The COVID-19 pandemic could be as dire as the 1918 Spanish epidemic

American scientists want to make the world aware of how dangerous the coronavirus pandemic is. To this end, they decided to compare it with the Spanish pandemic. They chose New York for the comparison, and then set about the methodical analysis of death statistics. The result turned out to be quite surprising. According to them, the COVID-19 pandemic could claim more deaths than the Spanish in 1918.

1. At least 50 million people have died because of the Spanish woman, and COVID-19 has claimed over 800 to date. victims
2. The 1918 Spanish pandemic and this year’s coronavirus look similar in statistical terms
3. Social distancing, quarantine, and wearing masks will buy us the time we need to invent a vaccine

What do we already know about Spain and COVID-19?

Until now, we believed that the Spanish pandemic was the greatest epidemiological disaster to befall humanity. One-third of the world’s population was infected with influenza, and at least 50 million died. According to the data of the American government agency CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) in the USA, there were 675. Spanish victims.

At that time, we had neither vaccines nor antibiotics to treat secondary infections that inevitably arise in the course of flu. However, countermeasures similar to those in use today were applied. In order to limit the transmission of the virus, quarantine was imposed on citizens and the use of personal care products was promoted.

A hundred years later, another pandemic came, this time triggered by a novel coronavirus – SARS-CoV-2. It is not known yet how dangerous it is and how many victims it will entail. At the moment, we have data on 25 million infected and over 800 thousand. victims all over the world.

COVID-19 and the Spanish – the truth about both pandemics is in numbers

New York is a city hit hard by both pandemics. According to the data of the local Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, over 19 people died from COVID-19 in the spring. people. There are also 4600 probable victims, whose disease has not been confirmed by tests.

To make the comparison as accurate as possible, the researchers looked at data collected by the CDC, the New York City Department of Mental Health and Hygiene, and the US Census Bureau. They were interested in the mortality rates in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and at the peak of the Spanish pandemic in 1918.

1. The editorial board recommends: Spanish woman – what do you not know about the biggest epidemic in history?

First, they analyzed the total number of deaths (from any cause) in New York in October and November 1918, the height of the Spanish pandemic in the city, in detail, and then compared it with the number of deaths from any cause in the same months from 1914 to 1917.

They later counted all the deaths that occurred in the city from March 11 to May 11 this year, when the coronavirus pandemic reached its peak. Time periods of 61 days were used to compare the two pandemics.

“ Our choice fell on the early stage of this year’s pandemic and the peak of 1918, ” said one of the authors of the study, Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston and a lecturer at Harvard Medical School, “ to make people aware of how serious it is. the contemporary one.

It found that a total of 1918 deaths were recorded in New York during the 31 pandemic peak. 589 deaths (from any cause) per 5,5 million inhabitants. The total number of deaths was 2,8 times higher than in the same months in previous years.

However, in the case of COVID-19, between March 11 and May 11, 2020, 33 were found in New York. 465 deaths (from any cause) per 8,28 million inhabitants. The total number of deaths was 4,15 times higher than in the same months in 2017-2019.

This means that during the peak of the flu pandemic of 1918 in New York City, about 287 people out of 100 died per month. inhabitants, while at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, about 202 people per 100 thousand per month died. Thus, the overall number of deaths in the spring of 2020 was at the level of 70%. the total number of deaths in the fall of 1918

— When we compare these figures, we can see that COVID-19 is really dangerous and has already caused a death rate similar to the Spanish pandemic, Dr Jeremy Faust told Live Science.

There is another way to estimate the magnitude of deaths during a pandemic. This is a comparison with a baseline that can be expected over a period of time. The Spaniard has a higher estimated increase in deaths than COVID-19. However, in relative terms, the COVID-19 pandemic looks worse, as the number of deaths has quadrupled compared to previous years – from a baseline level of around 50 deaths per 100. people per month. Meanwhile, at the height of the Spanish pandemic, the number had less than tripled – from a baseline of around 100 deaths per 100. people per month.

– This is a shock for us, because in the case of the coronavirus we started with a lower mortality than in 1918 – says Dr. Faust. – And this is due to the higher level of hygiene, public health and the development of medicine. We don’t really know yet which pandemic is more dangerous. Maybe what happened in New York this spring will not happen again, because there are recommendations for wearing masks or social isolation, or maybe until an effective vaccine is invented, the number of deaths will slowly rise to reach 1918 levels.

1. See also: What do we know about the victims of the coronavirus in Poland?

The COVID-19 pandemic cannot be underestimated

The authors of the study, the results of which were published in the journal JAMA, are aware of its limitations. After all, you cannot directly compare how contagious and dangerous the two viruses are. It is also not known how many deaths from SARS-CoV-2 were avoided thanks to modern medicine and therapies that were not available a century ago.

“It is certain, however, that we have shown so many similarities that they cannot be simply ignored,” remarks Dr. Faust. – We asked ourselves how the coronavirus pandemic compares with the worst pandemic that has happened to humanity today and we have answers. I think we haven’t said the last word yet, and further research will reveal more about whether the current pandemic is lighter, similar, or maybe more severe than that of 1918.

So far, the conclusions are that isolation, social distancing, quarantine, and the wearing of masks are having the desired effect. Dr. Jeremy Faust adds:

“Unlike any other pandemic, this time flattening the curve can not only reduce mortality … it can first and foremost buy us time to invent a vaccine.” If we do not take care of it, there will be unprecedented chaos. This situation is not guaranteed but possible.

This may interest you:

1. During the Spanish epidemic, the children returned to school. What happened?
2. Dr. John Snow – the man who saved the people of London
3. Plague, black pox, cholera, the greatest pandemics in the history of the world

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