The COVID-19 pandemic probably does not have good associations with anyone. However, it undoubtedly accelerated the development of research into viruses and diseases caused by them. One of these studies indicates that the next epidemic in 2020 has not happened. It is a polio-like disease, and for this lucky twist of fate, we can thank the coronavirus.
- Outbreaks of acute relaxant myelitis occur every two years
- AFM cases are related in time and geography to enterovirus D68
- 2020 epidemic restrictions reduced spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus as well as enterovirus D68
- “Social distancing prevents the development of an epidemic, but also means that susceptibility to the virus may increase,” say the researchers
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What is acute myel relaxant?
The disease in question is acute flaccid myelitis, abbreviated as AFM. It is a polio-like neurological disease that mainly affects young children. It causes muscle weakness and, in some cases, permanent paralysis and even death.
AFM is not new, medicine has known it for a long time, but for decades, cases have been very rare. Only in recent years, mainly in the USA, there have been major epidemics, repeating equally every two years.
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Research indicates that outbreaks of AFM were related in time and geography to enterovirus D68 (EV-D68). Enterovirus D68 has occurred sporadically until recently, causing small outbreaks of mild infection. However, in recent years there has been an increase in the number of infections worldwide. Large EV-D68 outbreaks, with thousands of cases, occurred in the United States, Canada, and Europe in 2014. A link between the pathogen and acute muscle relaxant myelitis was discovered when it was observed that a large number of AFM cases in the United States coincided with an infection epidemic upper respiratory tract caused by this enterovirus. Whether EV-D68 is the cause of AFM has not yet been confirmed, but scientists are confident a link exists.
A team led by Dr Sang Woo Park of Princeton University tracked EV-D68 cases from 2014 to 2019. It turned out that the virus caused many more cases in even years – 2014, 2016 and 2018 – which is attributed to climatic factors. Statistics indicated that there will be another attack in 2020.
‘We predicted a serious EV-D68 epidemic, and thus the AFM epidemic, in 2020, explains Dr Park. – Of course, under normal epidemic conditions.
Meanwhile, the situation in 2020 was not normal and the expected EV-D68 and AFM attack on the American population did not take place.
Why didn’t enterovirus attack?
The solution is simple. In the United States, a country with over 30 million COVID-19 cases, a combination of several factors has worked. These were: observance of the principles of physical distance, quarantine, isolation and lockdown. We know that the above restrictions reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus, but now it turns out enterovirus D68 as well.
Our preliminary analysis indicates that policies to combat the COVID-19 pandemic likely influenced the dynamics of the EV-D68 epidemic in 2020, the study authors said.
Scientists have numbers to confirm their words. In 2016, there were 153 cases of AFM in the USA, in 2018 – 238, and in 2020 only 31.
However, the coronavirus has not finally closed the issue of the ATM epidemic. An unplanned gap year may have weakened immunity to enterovirus at the population level.
Scientists believe that “social distancing prevents an epidemic from spreading, but also means that susceptibility to the virus may increase, making it more likely that there will be another major epidemic.”
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