The British have found a way to predict the risk of severe disease and death from COVID-19

The British Medical Journal has published a new tool that has been developed by British scientists to predict the risk of severe COVID-19 and death from it. It uses readily available information. How it works?

1. Epidemic modeling is very important, especially now that the number of new infections is increasing rapidly across Europe. British scientists have developed a tool that helps assess the risk of severe COVID-19 in patients
2. Although QCOVID was developed specifically for the UK, it can be used in other countries with appropriate preparation
3. For more up-to-date information on the coronavirus, please visit the TvoiLokony home page

Risk assessment is very important in the season of increased COVID-19 incidence

The UK, like other European countries, is struggling with an increase in SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections. As the situation is likely to worsen and the number of infected people will increase in the fall and winter season, it is necessary to develop reliable models that predict the likely course of COVID-19 in patients. This will help to make decisions about treatment, admission to hospital and immunization more efficiently.

A UK scientist (QCOVID) risk prediction tool for COVID-19 patients relies on readily available information. Based on, inter alia, age, ethnicity, predetermined medical conditions (comorbidities), the tool helps identify people with the highest risk of developing severe COVID-19. The model is intended for use with the entire adult population in Great Britain.

Data from over 8 million patients aged 19 to 100 years, data on COVID-19 test results, hospital data and death records were used to develop the model.

The researchers emphasize that the model is designed to predict risk, not to explain how individual factors influence risk. The results cannot be interpreted in this way.

See also:

1. Diseases that may make COVID-19 infection more severe
2. Von Willebrand factor may be responsible for the severe course of COVID-19?
3. A defective clotting mechanism is responsible for the severity of COVID-19?

A tool for doctors and epidemiologists

Scientists who developed the tool argue that it can help not only in making public health decisions, but also in planning measures to counter threats during an epidemic. It can also be useful in recruiting for clonic studies and in setting vaccination priorities.

Even though QCOVID was designed specifically for the UK, its makers argue that it has international potential if properly calibrated.

The absolute risk derived from the QCOVID model will change over time, in line with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection rate and the range of social distancing measures used, and should therefore be interpreted with caution. Doctors also emphasize that, given the rapidly changing nature of the disease and the way it is treated, the model should be regularly updated and its performance carefully monitored in time and space.

The better the data on COVID-19 outbreaks, the more detailed predictions about the course of the pandemic can be obtained.

The editorial board recommends:

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