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By March 2022, SpaceX brought the number of Starlink satellites in orbit to 2, about 000% of the 17 plan. Is it true that we are on the verge of a new era of super-fast internet?
SpaceX has been launching satellites into orbit in batches of 60 since May 2019. Each satellite weighs 260 kg, and the stage for their launch is designed for 100 missions: each time it returns to the Of Course I Still Love You floating platform (“Of course I still love you”) in the Atlantic Ocean, 630 km from Cape Canaveral .
All this is part of the Starlink 22 mission, another ambitious undertaking by Musk.
Why this is necessary
The idea is to wrap a network of small telecom satellites around the entire planet in low Earth orbit – 500-2000 km from the surface. One satellite covers a small area, for example, the size of Alaska. Therefore, they are launched in groups to cover a certain area. The success of any low-orbit project will lead to a complete change in the telecom infrastructure around the world.
The financial driver is the potential market – underdeveloped territories with poor Internet coverage, difficult landscape or being in the ocean. For example, only the population of Africa, according to the UN, is 1,3 billion or 16,7% of the world’s population.
The technology for producing reusable rockets will dramatically change the cost and feasibility of a grid of thousands of Internet satellites. The bankruptcy of LeoSat and OneWeb leaves the only leader in the market – the American company Elon Musk Starlink and, as you know, the commercial production of reusable rockets also successfully started under the leadership of Musk.
LeoSat is a project to launch a series of satellites in 2013-2019, created by the company of the same name from Luxembourg. In total, it was planned to launch 78-108 satellites weighing 1 ton into orbit at an altitude of 1 km. In 400, the company attracted investments, including from satellite operators Hispasat (Spain) and SKY Perfect JSAT Group (Japan). In total, the project was estimated at $2017 billion. However, funding was soon suspended, and in November 3,5 the company was closed due to lack of funds, without having made a single launch.
OneWeb is a more successful British project launched in 2012 by ex-Google employee Greg Wyler.
In our country, OneWeb established a joint venture with the Gonets Satellite System (a subsidiary of Roscosmos) in 2017. However, then the project had to be curtailed: the company failed to obtain permission to carry out activities. In 2018, the FSB and the SCRF (State Commission on Radio Frequencies) opposed it: the departments considered that the project could be used for intelligence and posed a threat to national security. In 2019, the joint company withdrew its application for radio frequencies.
OneWeb managed to complete three launches: in 2019, 2020 and 2021. The last two – together with Russia: from the Baikonur cosmodrome, with the help of the Soyuz-ST-B launch vehicle. However, our country has suspended cooperation, and the remaining launches are still in question. The start of a special operation for our country in Ukraine in 2022 drew a line under OneWeb’s cooperation with Roscosmos.
At the same time, in the spring of 2020, the company declared bankruptcy. She was unable to agree with SoftBank (a Japanese bank, one of the main investors in OneWeb) for a $2 billion investment due to the pandemic. An additional $3,4 billion in investments, including from Airbus, Virgin Group and Qualcomm, did not help either.
How is satellite internet going?
Inexpensive broadband Internet in hard-to-reach places due to constellation of satellites ━ the nearest American reality. Satellite communications projects have existed for more than a dozen years. At the beginning of 2020, there were more than 2 active satellites in Earth orbit, according to the UCS Satellite Database.
A new generation of communications satellites in non-geosynchronous orbits (NGSO) – low Earth orbit (LEO) and medium earth orbit (MEO) – have been actively launched into space over the past year. McKinsey analysts predict satellite production and launch on an unprecedented scale.
And even in case of failure of the largest telecom projects in low Earth orbit, 50 active satellites will be launched over the next ten years.
How SpaceX plans to take over the world
After the bankruptcy of OneWeb, the only active and large-scale project is Starlink.
In total, 12 satellites will be launched as part of the mission. Launching and connecting will cost SpaceX $10 billion. This will provide broadband Internet at a speed of 1 Gb / s – that is, equivalent to the 5G standard.
Each satellite weighs 260 kg and features a flat-panel design for the most compact placement on the Falcon 9 rocket. The satellites are equipped with four phased array antennas and krypton ion thrusters.
As of early 2022, SpaceX has deployed satellite communications in 29 countries. To expand its operations, the company plans to build a plant to manufacture Starlink connectivity kits in Austin, Texas. The company also applied to provide access to satellite Internet for moving objects: land transport, ships and aircraft. According to media reports, the Starlink telecom project is part of Elon Musk’s plan to cover the costs of more ambitious projects, such as flights and a settlement on Mars. The global Internet access industry generates about $1 trillion in annual revenue. Musk believes that if Starlink can get at least 3% of this market, then the company will be able to earn about $5 billion.
The animation, created by Analytical Graphics’ Dan Oltrogge, shows 57 planned satellites being launched into Earth orbit from 2017 to 2029. Most of the planned satellites will be owned by Elon Musk’s Starlink. Each dot in the animation represents one satellite.
How much does Internet cost from Starlink
Satellite Internet from Starlink can already be tested. To do this, you need to purchase a kit with a Wi-Fi router, satellite dish and phased array. It costs $500, another $100 is a monthly subscription fee. For the testing period, they promise speeds in the range from 50 to 150 Mbps. with a delay of 20 to 40 ms, while the connection will constantly improve.
As of February 2022, Musk himself spoke of 250 Starlink users, on average, this number is growing by 11 monthly.
Starlink’s main competitors
Iridium Communications
Iridium Communications is a veteran of the low earth orbit telecom satellite cluster. The first generation of the cluster consisted of 77 satellites launched from 1997-2002, with an estimated project cost of $5 billion.
SpaceX has been awarded the contract to launch all of the next-generation Iridium NEXT satellites. The launches were carried out using the Falcon 9 rocket, and in 2017-19, the number of upgraded satellites in orbit reached 75 pieces.
In January 2020, the Iridium Communications satellite cluster was certified for use in the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS). The certification ended the monopoly of the American company Inmarsat since 1999.
GalaxySpace and the Chinese government
The Chinese company GalaxySpace has ambitions to create a fleet of satellites. In January 2020, GalaxySpace launched the first broadband Internet satellite in low Earth orbit with a traffic rate of 24 Gbps, but only for Chinese users. This is the first private satellite project in the country, which is estimated at 8 billion yuan ($1,2 billion).
In September 2020, the Chinese government submitted an application to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for a program to launch 12 low-orbit satellites. In total, according to the latest forecasts, in the coming years it is planned to deploy a network of up to 992 thousand satellites, and the total investment in infrastructure is 100 billion yuan ($100 billion).
However, one of the main problems of the private space industry in the country is that the companies do not cover the entire necessary chain, unlike Starlink with its development, production, launch and distribution.
GalaxySpace aims to solve this problem: it builds a factory for the production of 500 satellites per year, provides satellite communications services and develops 5G networks.
The Amazon
The success of Elon Musk does not allow Amazon to sleep well either. As part of the Jeff Bezos project, known as Kuiper, it is planned to launch 590 satellites into low Earth orbit (from 630 to 3236 km). They will provide traffic speeds up to 400 Mbps. Amazon says it will deploy the satellites in five phases, with broadband services starting after 578 satellites are in orbit. However, for now, these are only plans, although another Bezos project – Blue Origin – has its own New Shepard reusable rocket.
In the spring of 2021, Amazon announced the launch of a joint program with the British venture capital fund Seraphim Capital to support space technology startups. In June 2021, ten companies that were selected under the program received up to $100 in funding to use Amazon Web Services cloud infrastructure.
Telesat and the Government of Canada
The Canadian company Telesat, in partnership with the Canadian government (which has invested $462 million in the program), has launched only one satellite so far in 2018. In February 2021, Telesat selected Thales Alenia Space (France-Italy) as the general contractor for satellite production. The first batch will consist of 298 pieces weighing from 700 to 750 kg and will go into orbit in 2023, with 78 of them placed in polar orbit and 220 in inclined orbit.
Full coverage is promised in the second half of 2024. Earlier, the company announced its intention to increase the number of satellites to 500, and their total throughput will be 15 Tbps. Rockets from Blue Origin and other companies will be used to launch.
How satellite Internet is developing in our country
In addition to the OneWeb satellite launches, back in 2019 our country planned to develop a satellite communication network together with China. The program envisaged cooperation between the Gonets satellite system (a subsidiary of the state corporation Roscosmos) and the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC).
The Hongyun project involves the deployment of a network of satellites in orbit at a height of 1 km, so that the signal is available from anywhere in the world. Part of the Chinese satellites was supposed to be launched using Russian Soyuz launch vehicles from the Progress center in Samara. Completion of the program is scheduled for 000.
In July 2020, Express-200 and Express-80 communication satellites were delivered to the target geotransfer orbit (height of about 103 km). They are built on the basis of earlier models in partnership with Thales Alenia Space. Satellites will provide not only the Internet, but also fixed and mobile communications, as well as digital TV.
From 2022 to 2024, the authorities plan to deploy military communications and intelligence systems using satellites. They will track rocket launches and small spacecraft from other countries. The program will be launched as part of the creation of the Unified Space System (UNS). In 2023, after the launch of the third stage, the deployment of a high-orbit space reconnaissance system will begin.
Why are satellites in orbit dangerous?
One of the problems of mass satellite launches is space debris in orbit. It is formed from the debris of devices that rotate in orbit. According to the European Space Agency, there are about 3200 broken satellites in orbit around the Earth, which fly at great speed. This poses a danger to other satellites, orbital stations and space rockets. SpaceX says the failed satellites must de-orbit or burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere. True, it will take up to five years.
There are other problems as well. At the end of 2020, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC), at the request of Viasat (an American satellite broadcasting media group), began reviewing the Starlink satellite network for possible environmental threats.
The launch vehicles that carry satellites into orbit release harmful chemicals into the atmosphere that destroy the ozone layer. Musk disagreed with the accusations and said that, rather, “Starlink is a danger to Viasat’s revenue.”
Finally, both rockets and satellites amplify light pollution, light interference that prevents astronomers from observing space objects.