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The lack of a ban on assemblies and the freedom of movement have caused the Poles to travel in large numbers to their loved ones in recent days. However, the consequences can be painful. – The increase in the number of infections as a result of Christmas meetings will be sure. You can bet on it as a lottery jackpot, knowing the lucky numbers beforehand – confirms prof. Andrzej Fal, head of the Department of Allergology, Lung Diseases and Internal Diseases at the hospital of the Ministry of Interior and Administration, president of the Polish Society of Public Health.
- According to our interlocutor, the first effects of Christmas meetings with loved ones – in the form of a greater number of COVID-19 infections – can be expected already after the New Year
- More infections also mean more hospitalizations and deaths, although here the numbers will not increase until about three weeks
- Prof. Fal also forecasts when a wave of Omikron infections will accelerate in Poland
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
New year, new records?
The second Christmas with the coronavirus in the background was marked by free meetings with loved ones. Long meetings, held in closed, usually poorly ventilated rooms, without the possibility, but also the desire to keep a distance. In addition, a large group of the family, including vaccinated and unvaccinated people, healthy and sick, often asymptomatic. These are ideal conditions for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus, both in the form of the still dominant Delta, and in the form of a new variant – Omicron.
- See also: Do masks protect against Omicrons? Experts advise how to increase their effectiveness
Experts are convinced that the coronavirus has not been idle during the holidays. The question is, when will he show the results of his “work”.
As explained by prof. In waves, the question of when infection rates will rise as a consequence of holiday meetings with loved ones depends on the incubation period of the virus.
– We know that in the case of the Delta variant, it takes about five days from the moment of infection to the appearance of symptoms. However, from what we know about the Omicron, incubation is shorter, from one to three days from exposure to the virus. If we came back from Christmas, say Monday, let’s give the virus that longer time, three to five days, because we have a mixture of Delta and Omicron around us. We can shoot that between the New Year and Epiphany we will see the first increases related to holidays. I am not saying that it will be the fifth wave right away, but the increase will certainly be noticeable.
- Also read: There are cases of simultaneous infection with Delta and Omicron
More infections = more hospitalizations and deaths
As the number of infections increases, the number of hospitalizations and deaths will change, which – especially in the latter case – are already alarmingly high (today a record number of deaths has been recorded – 19 people have left because of COVID-794). Currently, hospitalizations account for about 20 percent. the number of cases.
It is not known whether in the case of Omikron, which according to reports from the world so far, gives a milder course of infection and does not always require the patient to be hospitalized, this percentage will be the same. Nevertheless, it is certain that if the underlying base (infection) grows, the number of hospitalizations will also be higher.
– The pandemic death curve lags, at least to date, the disease curve by 10-14 days. Someone got sick today, then it turns out to be severe, so the mortality rate is highest around the 14th day after the onset of symptoms. So here the increase will certainly also occur, but it will be more delayed – says prof. Halyard.
- See also: A doctor from a covid hospital talks about the most difficult cases. “Young, unvaccinated are dying”
The appearance of a new variant of the coronavirus, Omikron, will also affect the projected increase in the number of infections. In Poland, Delta is still the dominant strain. According to the data that goes to the international GISAID database, it is responsible for 99,3 percent. COVID-19 infections in our country. However, this may soon change due to a new mutation of the virus that already appears in samples tested in Polish laboratories.
The omicron was first detected on November 11 in Botswana. The World Health Organization (WHO) has classified it to the VoC group, i.e. variants that raise concern (ang. variant of concern). The number of mutations in it (over 50) and the predicted high transmissivity caused the concern mainly.
This fact was quickly confirmed – the strain spread around the world at an express pace. Today it is officially in 89 countries (this is how many reported cases have been reported to GISAID), but as WHO director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus recently said, it is probably already everywhere in the world, but has yet to be detected.
Currently, the greatest number of infections with the new variant was recorded in Great Britain (over 40 thousand) and in the USA (over 13 thousand). Omikron is successively replacing other variants in these countries, including Delta. In some countries it has already done so – in South Africa, where it is infected nearly 1,8 thousand, it already accounts for 98,4 percent. all cases.
In Poland, the first case of an Omikron infection was detected on December 16. According to GISAID, this variant has so far been identified in 25 samples in our country.
- See also: Why did the detection of Omikron in Poland take so long? How are the various variants of the coronavirus studied?
The Omicron will come out soon
Looking at the dynamics of the growth of infections with the new mutation in other European countries, it should be expected that Omikron will also start to effectively displace Delta in Poland. According to prof. The wave is a matter of three or four weeks.
– I would not like to be a fortune teller, because it is not a matter of looking at a glass ball or coffee grounds, but rationalizing it, it seems that if nothing new happens in the context of restrictions, the end of January is a very likely date for the wave of Omikron infections in Poland – he says expert.
Should this wave be feared? Preliminary scientific reports show that Omikron is three to five times more infectious than Delta and even several dozen times more than the original Wuhan virus. At the same time, however, the infection is milder, with other symptoms appearing, mainly from the upper respiratory tract. Primary lung infection is rare.
- See also: Omicron can be as mild as a cold. But on a condition
– But if he infects three times as many, even if only half of these people have to go to the hospital, the burden can still be quite heavy. I think the health care system will be difficult for weeks and months. Undoubtedly, it will be worse or more difficult where the percentage of vaccinated people is lower, there will simply be more infections there. Not everyone wants to hear it and we have been seeing the consequences for a month and a half. Unfortunately, everything indicates that we will be watching them for a long time – forecasts prof. Halyard.
Do you want to test your COVID-19 immunity after vaccination? Have you been infected and want to check your antibody levels? See the COVID-19 immunity test package, which you will perform at Diagnostics network points.
The editorial board recommends:
- The FDA warns: Antigen tests are less likely to detect the Omikron variant
- How many children died in the US after being infected with Omicron? Hospitals are filling up, doctors are sounding the alarm
- Research: Omicron resistant to known antibodies. It can run away from vaccines
- Highest number of infections in the world since the start of the pandemic. Guilty Omikron?
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