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The pandemic wave caused by the BA.5 mutation is kicking off in Europe. More than half of all new infections in the world occur on our continent. We also have record increases in Poland. What is happening in Europe is of concern to the WHO, which calls on states to urgently increase monitoring of the epidemic. MZ has no plans to return for mass testing so far. However, there is a way to find out the true extent of infection, even in the absence of symptoms. According to Dr. Aneta Afelt, it is one of the most important things that Poland should introduce.
- In 1,5 months, the number of new COVID-19 cases in the European region has tripled
- Last week brought a record 12 infections in this wave in Poland
- Dr. Afelt: in Poland, monitoring of coronavirus infections is only conventional, we have rather testing “on request” (if an infection is suspected) or testing on our own. So it is not known how many infections we are dealing with
- I would highly recommend wastewater monitoring throughout Poland. Thanks to this, we will know what the scale of the infection really is, says Dr. Afelt. Is there anything already going on? We have a GIS response
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
BA.5 covers Europe. A disturbing trend
Over the past six weeks, the number of new COVID-19 cases has tripled in the region, and close to 3 million new infections were confirmed last week, says WHO Regional Director for Europe. Dr. Hans Kluge notes that nearly half of all new cases in the world occur in Europe, and that hospital admissions for the virus have doubled. Although the number of admissions to intensive care units remains relatively low, with the increase in the number of infections in older populations, almost 3. people die each week from COVID-19. “These numbers paint a picture of the recent past,” said Hans Kluge.
Fot. covid19.who.int
Increases in coronavirus infections are also clearly visible in Poland. In the last week of June, we had 2422 cases, the second week of July brought them 7569. Last week was a record-breaking 12 infections in this wave. However, we don’t really know how many infections we are dealing with. «In Poland, monitoring of coronavirus infections is only conventional. Testing is actually gone, we have rather “on demand” testing when someone suspects an infection, or self-testing “- reminds Dr. Aneta Afelt.
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As infections increase, so does the number of hospitalizations. Two weeks ago, 449 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized, a week ago – 694. Data from July 19 indicates 1157 hospitalizations.
The growing R (RO) index for Poland is also worrying – thanks to it we know how many healthy people can be infected by one person infected with the coronavirus. If the R is greater than one, we know that the epidemic is growing stronger when it is less than one, we can think that the epidemic is dying out and fewer people are getting infected from each other. Unfortunately, at the end of June, RO was 1,36, currently it is 1,49.
WHO appeals: let’s not wait for autumn, it will be too late
The epidemic in the European region worries the World Health Organization, which, warning of a potentially difficult winter, called on European governments to urgently strengthen (not limit) COVID-19 monitoring.
“Preparing for the future is much more difficult, but it needs to be dealt with urgently,” recalled Dr. Hans Kluge, stressing that you cannot wait until autumn with it. Then it will be too late. Dr. Kluge stressed the need to increase the number of vaccinations in the general population, to give a second booster dose to all at-risk populations, and to promote the use of masks and better ventilation in rooms and public transport.
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Such measures “will be crucial to protecting people this fall and winter,” Kluge said. He also stressed the importance of European governments increasing testing, prioritizing contact tracing and quarantine, and increasing the detection of variants.
MZ spokesman on common testing
As mentioned above, currently in Poland there is no widespread testing for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Why the Ministry of Health gave it up, explained in “Onet Rano.” MZ spokesman Wojciech Andrusiewicz: – When the pandemic broke out, the most important thing in every country in the world was whether the health care system would handle it. At the beginning of the epidemic, we saw what was happening in Italy when everything was missing – hospital beds, ventilators, doctors. The most important data is then what the occupancy of the hospital system looks like.
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MZ spokesman said about the testing itself: – We test people who are most at risk and test symptomatic people. Nobody knows if a patient needs to be tested better than a GP. That is why tests are in primary care and it is up to the doctor to decide whether or not we refer you to the test. When we had the fifth wave, let’s assume that a large part of people did not even go to the doctor, did not want to test themselves, so re-introducing common tests with these behaviors will not show us all infections anyway – pointed out Wojciech Andrusiewicz.
However, there is a good way to show the actual extent of the infection, including people who have no symptoms and do not suspect they are infected with the coronavirus at all. Dr. Aneta Afelt told us about it when we asked her what the state should do in the current epidemic situation. – I would highly recommend wastewater monitoring throughout Poland – was the answer. – This is a good diagnostic method that allows you to predict the burden on health care and thus plan medical care.
What would such wastewater monitoring consist of? ‘It’s analyzing them in terms of how much virus remains human excreted,’ explains Dr Afelt. – On this basis, it is possible to detect how many potential people in a given place are currently infected (even asymptomatic). This solution is used, inter alia, in in Italy, Germany or France. Unfortunately, this is not a systemic solution in Poland. If it were done by the largest Polish cities, we could estimate the actual scale of infection, says the scientist, adding: – I know that this type of wastewater monitoring is carried out in Poznań.
Is such a diagnostic method likely to cover the entire territory of Poland? We asked the Chief Sanitary Inspectorate about it. This is the answer we received:
The Chief Sanitary Inspectorate together with the National Institute of Public Health PZH-PIB conducts intensive work to create a national monitoring system for SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater, in accordance with Commission Recommendation (EU) 2021/472 of March 17, 2021 on a common approach to establishing systematic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants in waste water in the EU.
In addition to monitoring the wastewater, Dr. Afelt advises: – Let’s also go back to genetic monitoring of the virus. This will give us knowledge of the dynamics of the different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Let’s not delude ourselves – its evolution will not end with the BA.4 or BA.5 variants. This virus will continue to evolve and this is perfectly normal. The only question is what direction it will take.
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