Our life would be impossible without predictions of the future. Leaving the house, we look at the weather forecast and, based on the opinions of weather forecasters, make a decision: how to dress, whether to take an umbrella with us, whether to go to work by transport or walk. Our mood, health and safety depend on the ability to predict the course of events. American statistician Nate Silver writes about how to separate important information (signal) from unimportant information (noise). Our ability to see risks is influenced by our prejudices, fears and passions. Nate Silver’s recipe is simple: trust science more than emotions. Studying the theory of probability can save you from many mistakes, whether it be sports betting, politics or financial decisions. To begin with, we only need to learn to be skeptical about our ideas about the world, constantly refining them with the help of new information.
KoLibri, 608 pp., 2015.