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Dr David Nabarro, who deals with COVID-19 within the WHO, announced at the end of November that Europe would be hit by a third wave of the pandemic in early 2021. The expert reminded us to maintain the existing rigors, because the next virus attack will take place before mass vaccination begins. There is also talk of the third wave in Poland. Not only representatives of the government and the Ministry of Health, but also doctors and analysts present their forecasts. What awaits us? Here is a possible scenario.
- Deputy Minister of Health Waldemar Kraska believes that the decision to accumulate the date of the winter holidays may discourage Poles from going to the mountains, and thus the transmission of the virus will not intensify
- “Until March it will not be possible to decide to withdraw from the construction or operation of temporary hospitals” – informs Minister Niedzielski
- Prof. Włodzimierz Gut: “The fewer people die, the more they will become ill later due to complications. It is already known that people who have had COVID-19 mildly have had a greater risk of complications than those who have been severely ill “
- However, experts agree that the third wave of the epidemic in Poland is rather inevitable
- You can find more up-to-date information on the TvoiLokony home page
The prime minister and ministers call for responsible behavior
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that if we fail with the vaccine, it is highly likely that we will experience not only the third, but also subsequent waves of the pandemic. However, according to his predictions, vaccines produced by Pfizer will reach Poland by January 18 next year. In this situation, we could avoid the spring increase in the number of infections. At the same time, although the prime minister encourages vaccinations (vaccines are to be free and easily available), he still declares that they will be voluntary.
Minister Adam Niedzielski quotes the forecasts of his advisors and says that the third wave will take place at the turn of February and March. So, most likely, it will overlap with the peak of the flu season. Therefore, until then, we must behave responsibly and comply with the applicable restrictions. Hence the idea to spend Christmas Eve and Christmas in an intimate setting. Apart from the family, only 5 additional people could participate.
– I cannot imagine a situation that due to a false sense of security, we cancel all this effort and lead to an escalation of the epidemic – said the minister during the press conference.
- Niedzielski about the end of the epidemic: we will start to function normally around summer holidays
A logical continuation of this approach is the decision on the 2021 winter break.
– The winter holidays should be held under the slogan “stay at home” – said Niedzielski. – Staying at home during the epidemic should save us from the third wave, which is why it was decided to accumulate the holidays in one date – he added.
The Ministry does not agree with the alleged, inter alia, by Zakopane and industries related to tourism and leisure with arguments to break the holidays into several dates.
The statements of Minister Niedzielski were supplemented in Polsat News by Deputy Minister Waldemar Kraska.
– Unfortunately, we are preparing for this wave, which is why there is the construction of temporary hospitals, which will certainly not be launched now, because there are not so many infections at the moment, but we must be prepared for the eventuality of the third wave.
When asked about New Year’s Eve, the deputy minister said that “it all depends on the epidemiological situation”.
– There is still a month until New Year’s Eve, it will certainly not be possible to spend it as before, but perhaps the situation that day will be more joyful than what we have at the moment – he said.
Waldemar Kraska believes that the decision to accumulate the date of the winter holidays will discourage Poles from traveling and thus the spread of the virus will slow down.
– It was a difficult decision for us, but the reasons behind it are epidemiological and health-related – emphasized the deputy head of the Ministry of Health.
On the other hand, the ministry has one strong message about the legitimacy of creating new temporary hospitals. This is our last line of defense and will be used in the event of a third wave of disease.
– Certainly, until March it will not be possible to decide to withdraw from the construction or operation of temporary hospitals. They take place in the system – explained Minister Niedzielski.
While the next waves of the epidemic should be weaker, other cases will increase
Scientists say that in Poland, the third wave may take the form of a not very strong but long-term increase in the incidence of other serious diseases caused by primary coronavirus infection. These will be, for example, cardiological, pulmonary or nephrological problems, as well as personality disorders and mental problems.
– These are and will be the consequences of COVID-19 for a large number of convalescents. In some they appear immediately, others fall ill even after a few years – says prof. Włodzimierz Gut in an interview with money.pl.
Where do these assumptions come from? Prof. Gut points to the experience of the first SARS-CoV-1 virus attack in 2003. Complications were observed in a significant number of patients up to 3 years after the disease resolved.
– Delayed syndromes occur more often, the lower the mortality rate is – explains prof. Gut. – So the fewer people die, the more they will get sick later due to complications. It is known today that people who have had COVID-19 mildly are more likely to develop complications than those who have been severely ill.
– Coronavirus can cause severe heart failure even in people who do not currently suffer from cardiovascular diseases – said prof. Adam Witkowski, head of the Polish Society of Cardiology.
- Disturbing research results: complications after COVID-19 in 70% of asymptomatic patients. What’s happening?
– The third wave of the coronavirus, and in our case the second, may occur in the spring of 2021 – Paweł Grzesiowski, an expert of the Supreme Medical Council on combating COVID-19 warned on Radio Zet.
The doctor predicts that it will come when the applicable restrictions are suspended.
– If any of you plans your life, wondering what will happen in 3, 5, 10 months, then 2021 must be noted in the calendar as an abnormal year. Even if we start vaccinations in February, they will last at least a year – emphasized Grzesiowski.
Although the expert admitted that at the moment the virus has receded slightly, it is absolutely impossible to defeat it.
Meanwhile, the virologist, prof. Agnieszka Szuster-Ciesielska, in an interview with WP abcZdrowie, gives the date of the third wave of the pandemic at the turn of January and February. It also indicates that the current decline in the incidence rate is associated more with a reduction in the number of tests performed than with the actual slowing down of the epidemic.
– Now there is relaxation, which after Christmas may bring another wave of infections – he says.
Some virologists believe that the effect of the current relaxation of restrictions – the decision to open shopping malls and ski slopes – will be the third wave of infections.
– The number of infections will depend on how much loosening occurs during the holiday season. It is about both opening a gallery before Christmas and the movement of people during the holiday season – explains prof. Szuster-Ciesielska. – I do not think that everyone would obey the prime minister’s request and spend Christmas in a narrow group.
Prof. Szuster-Ciesielska also does not rule out that after the third wave, more will come, but the closer to spring, the milder they will be. So there is hope for a normal vacation.
– By that time, the majority of the population will be symptomatic or asymptomatic and will have some level of protection. Hello will already be vaccinated. Let’s hope that by then 70 percent. society will gain immunity and the transmission of the virus will be interrupted – says prof. Agnieszka Szuster-Ciesielska.
Analysts are trying to calculate the costs of the third wave
Credit Agricole bank economists also predict that the third wave will take place at the beginning of next year. They suggest that loosening and tightening restrictions, not only related to the economy, will follow the number of new infections. We have to prepare that it will take several months.
Analysts even attempted to forecast the number of new cases. According to their scenario, lower incidence in the second wave means that fewer people have acquired immunity, so the third wave may be more severe.
The creeping lockdown is expected to last at least until the end of March. And if the epidemic improves, entrepreneurs will make up for the losses in the summer.
How much can the treatment of all ailments resulting from SARS-CoV-2 virus infection cost us? For example, increasing the number of heart attacks by 10 to 15 percent. it would mean very serious expenses. The treatment of one patient with a heart attack costs almost PLN 20. PLN, or 7 thousand. additional heart attacks means PLN 140 million spent on saving lives. In addition, rehabilitation after a heart attack, which lasts 5 – 6 weeks, costs up to PLN 5. PLN per person. And that’s just one of the possible diseases.
See also:
- Factors that Increase Your Risk of Severe COVID-19
- Niedzielski about the end of the epidemic: we will start to function normally around summer holidays
- Christmas and New Years Eve during the pandemic. What restrictions in Europe, what in Poland?
- COVID-19 and the common cold – differences that patients can pick up on their own [EXPLAINED]
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