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The future is not as out of control as it seems. There are scientific approaches that allow you to lift the veil of secrecy and, without going into mysticism, to get an idea of what awaits us next.
Foresight based on scientific research turns into forecasting. We are accustomed to using this tool to assess large-scale events: we conduct market analytics, develop a vector for the development of science for ten years ahead … But at the same time, we rarely use it in the context of a particular person’s life.
But in vain! Much of what is effective for making long-term forecasts in business also works in everyday life. For example, foresight.
Fantasy? Futurology? Forsyth!
It’s funny, but for the first time the term foresight came from the lips of the science fiction writer HG Wells. Speaking at the BBC, he proposed a new profession – “professor of foresight.” And he described such a specialist as a historian, able to analyze new technologies and find their application in the future.
Over time, the definition of foresight has ceased to be limited only to the technological environment. Today it is a systematic peer review of the long-term perspective of science, technology, economics and public life.
The goal is to determine the optimal direction that will bring maximum benefit in the future.
Simply put, the method allows you to consider possible scenarios for the development of events and focus on the most preferable of them.
Well-read people will say that this is very similar to futurology (a field of sociology that aims to predict social processes). And they will be partly right. Futurology is also engaged in forecasting, but draws conclusions based on the past, history.
For example, the seasonal exacerbation of viral infections and even global pandemics do not come as such a surprise to futurologists, because it is possible to approximately calculate the frequency of their occurrence.
Foresight focuses primarily on the present. And it opens up more opportunities for finding creative solutions to achieve the desired.
Action plan
The key to foresight is an expert assessment of events. But who is the expert in our lives if not ourselves? Even those closest to us do not know everything that is happening to us and therefore are not able to create a plausible scenario for our future.
On the other hand, the method requires mastering, so it is better to conduct a foresight session together with a specialist who knows the technique “from” and “to”.
How is everything going?
You pose a question to which you want an answer. Let’s say: “Will I be able to become the manager of a large company and how long will it take?”
The next step is modeling the projection of the future and analyzing possible scenarios. From the “here and now” point, motion vectors are built, each of which leads to a certain result. And here the most interesting begins.
Like futurology, foresight sees the future as the natural outcome of our decisions and actions. It doesn’t exist until we create it ourselves. Therefore, the goal is not to “predict”, but to influence what will happen to us. Create a project. At this stage, you can involve an external expert. It should create favorable conditions in which you can maximize your creativity.
Conventional wisdom is being challenged. “Only after graduating from an MBA, you can become a director”, “Starting a career at 30, 40, 50 late” is no longer the ultimate truth. It not only inspires, but also clears the mind of limiting attitudes. Allows you to understand: the future is non-linear and does not follow only from current trends. By the way, this is proved by the latest events of 2020-2021.
The task of foresight is to break you out of the usual circle and, instead of answering a question, offer a goal. Then the uncontrollable future will be replaced by a forecast based on your choice and sequence of actions.
The probability of “misfire”
Even that which cannot be predicted is given a definition. For example, no one denies that from time to time unexpected events occur that have a powerful impact on our lives. Scientific breakthroughs, catastrophes, the disappearance of entire industries, if you think globally. “Coincidences” – if within the framework of the life of an individual.
It would seem that this completely refutes the possibility of making predictions. But no.
The point is what we take as a basis when considering a potential future: objective facts or opinions and interpretations. Are you ready to accept reality as it is?
And, if it is difficult to assess global events plausibly without being “at the pinnacle of power”, one’s own life lends itself to scientific observation.
Throw away emotions and excuses, and the essence becomes visible. For example, regular delays for “unforeseen” reasons (a broken heel, a stuck elevator, a traffic jam) can be the result of illiterate time management. A “successful” conversation with superiors (in a good mood, at the right moment) is the result of preparedness and activity.
The future really belongs to us, all we need is effort, confidence and thoughtful actions!
Oksana Nabok
Change management and organizational development expert, HR practitioner with 27 years of experience, business coach.
www.instagram.com/oxana.nabok/