Scientists warn of the British COVID-19 mutation. «There may be a catastrophe»

Scientists at the Canadian Simon Fraser University have developed a model for the spread of the British strain of the virus in the country. It shows that the number of new infections will increase sharply by mid-March. – If we do not stop it now, it could lead to a catastrophe – write the authors of the forecast.

1. The UK variant of the coronavirus is responding to the recently increased number of infections, not only in the UK. Britain. This strain moves 40-80 percent faster. than basic
2. Variant B.1.1.7 is already present in 70 countries around the world, including Poland
3. Canadian scientists simulated its spread over the next few weeks. The results are not optimistic. – If we do not stop this mutation now, there will be a catastrophe in March – they warn.
4. You can find more up-to-date information on the coronavirus on the Onet homepage

British variant of the virus – very sharp increase in infections is predicted

According to estimates, the British variant of the coronavirus, also known as B.1.1.7, is characterized by about 40-80 percent higher infectivity.

Scientists from Simon Fraser University in Canada conducted a forecast of the spread of this variant in six Canadian provinces, assuming 40 percent. faster transfer speed. The results shown in the charts can be terrifying.

The forecast, i.e. the orange line, is accelerating sharply, from February to mid-March reaching the result from zero to 20 thousand. infections daily. This is a lot for Canadian conditions, where in January the daily number of cases is from 9 to 4, with a clear downward trend (blue line).

The SFU analysis was prepared taking into account the current limitations. ‘This prediction does not have to correspond to actual future figures, it is mainly used to show the impact strength of the higher-infectivity variant,’ commented the researchers.

In Canada, each of the provinces has different restrictions. In some of them they are very liberal, for example in Saskatchewan (SK) restaurants, cinemas or service establishments are open. There you can see a very clear increase in infections.

1. UK Coronavirus Variant – Five Things You Need to Know

The increase is much milder in provinces with much greater restrictions, such as Quebec (QC), where there is a curfew.

– In most areas of Canada, with the current restrictions, we are able to control the coronavirus. However, the current limitations of the British variant will not stop, the authors of the forecast estimate.

In their opinion, once infections with the British variant shoot up sharply, the number of infected people will double in one or two weeks, and not in 30-40 days as it is now.

How do I contain the UK variant of the virus? Scientists from SFU postulate tightening the rules of travel, including quarantine and isolation. They also suggest limiting travel, both to and between Canada, and between its provinces. In their opinion, it is also necessary to accelerate the tests towards variant B.1.1.7 and vaccinate truck drivers on the Canadian-American border.

Europe is also afraid of new mutations

New coronavirus mutations are also causing concern in Europe. Many countries have introduced travel restrictions, curfew, stricter quarantine rules, flight bans or – as in Germany – an order to wear masks of a higher standard than cloth masks in public places. Portugal and Norway closed their borders completely, some countries did so partially.

In France, they are preparing for the coming of the third wave of the coronavirus, caused by COVID-19 mutations. – New strains of the virus are spreading faster and faster in France. We estimate that we have gone from five hundred infections a day with new virus mutations in early January to two thousand infections today, said French Health Minister Olivier Véra. The new variant of the coronavirus in France is already responsible for approx. 10 percent. new infections, at the beginning of January it was 3,2 percent.

British strain of the virus in Poland

The first case of infection with the British variant of the coronavirus in Poland was discovered on January 21 – it was identified in a patient from Lesser Poland. On Thursday, January 28, at a press conference, Health Minister Adam Niedzielski informed about the second case. The second person with this virus mutation is a teacher and hasn’t traveled recently. According to Niedzielski, it is possible to judge that this mutation is already present in Poland.

– This virus is more contagious, it has a greater ease of spreading and this is a real risk – said the head of the health ministry.

Doctor Bartosz Fijałek referred to the Canadian forecasts on his FB profile. «A rough ride awaits us,» he wrote.

Vaccines and the British mutation

In early January, Pfizer announced that its vaccine was effective against the coronavirus with the N501Y mutation, found in the British variant of the coronavirus. However, this is not the only mutation in this strain, a total of 17 different changes were found in it.

Moderna has also assured that its vaccine is effective against the British variant. In turn, Novavax provided 89 percent. efficacy against COVID-19 based on clinical trials conducted in Great Britain, which suggests that this efficacy also applies to B.1.1.7.

This may interest you:

1. Cloth masks do not protect against the British mutant virus?
2. Mutation, variant, strain, variant of the coronavirus. Can these terms be used interchangeably? [WE EXPLAIN]
3. Nine arguments to convince skeptics to vaccinate

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