Scientists: The pandemic didn’t start at the Wuhan market. There are more surprises

A market in the Chinese city of Wuhan has gone down in history as the place where the coronavirus pandemic began. Did SARS-CoV-2 really appear in this place for the first time? Scientists from several American universities have a different theory on this subject. Moreover, in their opinion, the development of the pandemic was due to an unfortunate coincidence.

1. The first coronavirus infections were reported at the end of December 2019 in Wuhan
2. Scientists believe that the pathogen was present in humans a month or two earlier
3. An unfortunate coincidence and conditions at the Wuhan market gave the virus the edge needed for a global pandemic to break out
4. Do you want to live longer? Make a simple test and find out how! 
5. You can find more such stories on the TvoiLokony home page

“How long was SARS-CoV-2 allowed to circulate in China before it was discovered?” – this question was asked by scientists from the University of California, University of Arizona and San Diego School of Medicine. They looked for answers using models showing how the coronavirus spreads. It also takes into account the genetic diversity of the virus in China, reports of the earliest cases of COVID-19 in the country, and information on the development of earlier epidemics that hit mankind. The work was published on March 18, 2021 in the online edition of the prestigious scientific magazine “Science”. The results of the analyzes may surprise you for several reasons.

How long could the coronavirus have been circulating in China before it was discovered?

SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic coronavirus that has likely jumped from unknown animal to human. The first cases of COVID-19 – and at the same time the earliest sequenced genomes of SARS-CoV-2 – were related to the wholesale seafood market in the Chinese city of Wuhan (first coronavirus infections were reported in late December 2019). According to the researchers, this place is unlikely to mark the true zero point of the pandemic. Why?

By combining the information collected, the scientists determined when the first case of a SARS-CoV-2 infection in a human could have appeared. «Our findings show that the first case of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection must have occurred between mid-October and mid-November 2019.»- the researchers write. So it turns out that the pathogen was circulating among people a month or two before the outbreak appeared.

1. A doctor who participated in the WHO mission in Wuhan described what was discovered. Three important points

Michael Worobey, a professor of evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona, emphasizes that the study showed that between October and December, several people were infected. Given this, it is difficult to reconcile low levels of the virus in China with information about infections in Europe and the US at the same time, he emphasizes. – I am quite skeptical of claims regarding COVID-19 outside of China at the time.

Why the COVID-19 pandemic has broken out? An unfortunate coincidence

Scientists drew other conclusions from the analyzes they conducted. “Our approach has had surprising results,” said research associate Dr. Joel O. Wertheim, associate professor in the Department of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health at UC San Diego School of Medicine.

Simulations suggest that in most cases zoonotic viruses die out naturally before triggering a pandemic. Moreover, scientists confirm that people are constantly being bombarded with animal pathogens. As reported in Science, the US agency CDC regularly tracks and reports cases of new flu strains in people who, for example, attend animal fairs and interact with pigs. “So far, none of these infections has led to an epidemic or even an epidemic,” emphasize the researchers. Why was it different for SARS-CoV-2?

1. SARS-CoV-2 “jumped” from bats to humans unchanged

Only an unfortunate coincidence and conditions at the Wuhan market (crowds, poor ventilation) gave the virus the advantage needed for the outbreak of a global pandemic – according to scientists in “Science”. – If things had turned out a little differently, had the first infected person who introduced the pathogen to the Wuhan market decided not to go shopping that day or were too sick to go there and just stayed home, then this or that early spread SARS-CoV-2 may not have materialized. Then perhaps we would never have heard of its existence, notes Michael Worobey.

In other words, the original SARS-CoV-2 strain caused an epidemic and then a pandemic because there was significant transmission of it, and because it was developing in urban areas where it was easier to spread. Since then, the virus has mutated many times and many variants have become more transmissive.

Pandemic surveillance was not prepared for a virus like SARS-CoV-2, admits Wertheim. – We were looking for another SARS or MERS, something that kills people at a high rate, but in retrospect, we can see how a highly contagious virus with a low fatality rate can be dangerous to the world.

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