Scientists talk about new epidemics after COVID-19

The discovery of a vaccine against COVID-19 and the start of vaccination have given hope that the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 will subside. Despite the fact that a dangerous virus continues to mutate in some regions, such as India, the epidemic is still in full swing, but at the same time, in countries where mass vaccination has been carried out, the epidemiological situation has improved significantly. The world is slowly starting to return to normal. But for how long? Experts predict that after COVID-19, humanity may face equally serious epidemics.

Why the risk of new epidemics is high

Epidemiologists at Princeton University (USA), after analyzing how the usual life of mankind has changed during the pandemic, came to the conclusion that the world will soon face new epidemics. And paradoxically, the reason for many of them will be the mask regime and quarantine measures that helped to escape from COVID-19 ^[1].

Scientists analyzed historical data related to previous pandemics and compiled a computer model of the potential developments after COVID-19. According to researchers, the peak of new epidemic outbreaks will occur in the winter of 2021-2022.

Wearing a mask, regular use of antiseptics, social distancing, avoiding events with large crowds of people – all this is the impetus for the so-called delayed epidemics. In simple terms, compliance with quarantine measures during the pandemic served as protection not only against SARS-CoV-2, but also against the causative agents of many diseases that regularly attacked people before COVID-19. However, these bacteria and viruses have not gone away, and after the abolition of the mask regime, human organisms will again become a target for them. But now more vulnerable.

What epidemics can cover the world after COVID-19

The diseases that humanity is expected to have to fight in the wake of COVID-19 are both familiar and new. Moreover, some of them, which were previously perceived as quite harmless, can now pose a very serious threat.

Respiratory diseases

During the COVID-19 pandemic, cases of ordinary SARS and seasonal influenza were recorded much less frequently than in previous years. However, as scientists from Princeton University suggest, this fact should not be taken as a sign of victory over the “old” respiratory infections. Moreover, after the lifting of quarantine measures, serious epidemic outbreaks of “old” diseases that are spread by airborne droplets are quite possible. The greatest danger in this regard, according to researchers, is the human respiratory syncytial virus (HRV) and influenza.

Due to preventive measures related to COVID-19, respiratory pathogens have lost the ability to freely circulate between people. As a result, this led to a decrease in herd immunity to pathogens, which means that humanity has become more vulnerable to “old” diseases.

If we talk about RSVCH, then it can cause severe bronchitis in children, as well as the elderly. Princeton scientists analyzed historical data on the incidence of RSV in the United States and Mexico at different times and concluded that after anti-epidemic restrictions leading to a decrease in infections, a “delayed” outbreak of the epidemic always follows. The next one is expected to take place in the winter of 2022.

It is more difficult for scientists to predict how influenza viruses will behave. Firstly, several strains of the pathogen circulate in the world at the same time, and secondly, the causative agent of influenza has a high variability. During the period of quarantine measures, seasonal flu could unexpectedly mutate, which means that it can be difficult to predict the time of a future outbreak and develop a vaccine against a new strain in a timely manner in the post-COVID period.

Other diseases

The same scientists from Princeton University analyzed the features of the epidemic situation after the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. It turned out that after it, acute outbreaks of measles were observed in the world. The same is expected after the COVID-19 pandemic.

In addition to measles, Western ^[2] and Russian ^[3] experts warn of a growing TB epidemic. Due to quarantine restrictions, mass examinations of the population (preventive and control fluorography) were almost never carried out. During this time, many patients could develop the initial stage of tuberculosis, which can be detected only with the help of fluorography. In addition, COVID-19 survivors tend to have poor lung health and weakened immune systems, making them an easy target for the TB pathogen.

According to scientists from Imperial College London, Johns Hopkins University and the US Agency for International Development, due to delayed diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis during the COVID-19 pandemic, by 2025 the number of patients may reach 6,3 million people, of which approximately 1,4 XNUMX million will die during this period ^[2].

Diseases caused by pathogen resistance to antibiotics

For the treatment of patients with COVID-19, especially at the beginning of the pandemic, when there was no clear understanding of what protocols to carry out therapy, strong antibiotics were very actively used.

These methods have saved the lives of many patients. But such treatment has a downside – the emergence of antibiotic-resistant infections. It is they, according to David Aronoff, professor at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, that can cause another serious pandemic. ^[4].

The data released by the researchers is not a reason to abandon quarantine measures – wearing masks, lockdowns and maintaining social distance.

The forecasts of scientists are a warning for humanity, what should be prepared for in the near future, so that new epidemics are not taken by surprise. As the saying goes, forewarned is forearmed.

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