School success can be predicted in a year and a half?

What grades will your child get? The simplest test that scientists have developed based on data obtained as a result of many years of research will help to understand this: it began in 1985 and is still ongoing.

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Researchers from the University of Warwick (UK) have found that simply testing 20-month-olds can predict their future academic performance, which depends on the ability to concentrate and self-control.

The scientists used data collected during the Bavarian Longitudinal Study, which began in Germany in 1985 and is still ongoing. In this study, 558 children (among whom were born at term and premature infants) were tested for self-monitoring at the age of 20 months. After 7 years, the children were re-examined by psychologists and pediatricians in order to assess their ability to concentrate, as well as to check their academic progress in various subjects: mathematics, reading and spelling. To do this, the researchers used standard tests.

The test, which the scientists gave to children at 20 months of age, was as follows: the child was shown a raisin and covered with an opaque plastic cup. After a briefing that was repeated three times, the toddler was asked to be patient and not eat the raisins until he received special permission (permission was given exactly 60 seconds later). It was found, in particular, that children who were born prematurely showed more impatience and more often took a treat without waiting for the experimenter’s permission.

When re-examined at the age of 8, it turned out that those children who, at the first test, showed weak self-control, studied worse and were more absent-minded. The results of premature babies were worse the earlier they were born.

“A simple five-minute test with a twist predicts a child’s ability to concentrate and learn successfully in the future. Perhaps these results will contribute to the creation of new methods of developmental therapy for children who were born prematurely, ”says one of the authors of the study, a professor in the Department of Psychology at the University of Warwick and the Warwick Medical School.

“The new results help to understand why preterm babies continue to experience problems as they grow older that prevent them from achieving their goals and success in general,” adds study lead author Julia Jaekel, Distinguished Research Fellow at the University of Warwick and Associate Professor of Children and family studies at the University of Tennessee at Knoxville (USA).

Scientists hope that early identification of problems with self-control and cognitive impairment will help create special correctional programs to mitigate or eliminate these defects.

Подробнее см. J. Jaekel et al. «Preterm Toddlers’ inhibitory control abilities predict attention regulation and academic achievement at age 8 years», The Journal of Pediatrics, Novermber 2015.

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