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On October 6, the Ministry of Health informed about 2 85 COVID-19 infections. That’s the most since May 20. The number is similar to last year’s. At the end of October 2020, there were already over 20 thousand. new cases. Will we have a repeat of the second wave? – The number of infections may be similar, but I hope that there will be no such pressure of patients on hospitals – says doctor Bartosz Fiałek.
- Record number of COVID-19 infections reported in fourth wave of coronavirus pandemic on Wednesday
- The number of new cases may increase at the same rate as last fall, but the deaths will be lower. It is thanks to the vaccinations
- All currently available vaccines reduce the risk of death by more than 90%. – says the doctor Bartosz Fiałek
- However, according to Fiałek, the problem lies elsewhere
- All healthcare professionals are ultra-tired – he says and points out that the current crisis in the healthcare sector may end in a catastrophe
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
The fourth wave of COVID-19. Will we have a repeat of the year before?
The Ministry of Health announced on Wednesday that the past day, tests confirmed 2 thousand. 85 new infections with SARS-CoV-2 virus. 43,6 thous. tests. 33 people died. There are over 2 in hospitals due to the coronavirus. patients. It happened what many specialists had predicted.
– Such an increase could be expected. This is not a surprise – Jerzy Friediger, MD, PhD, director of the Żeromski hospital in Kraków and former health care adviser to the President of Kraków, said in an interview with PAP.
2 thousand new infections are a number that has not been seen in over 4 months. And at the same time, the result is similar to the one from the first days of October last year. Then it was the beginning of a very dynamic growth. At the end of the month, more than 20 jobs were already mentioned. infections. Could there be a similar scenario now?
The rest of the text is below the video
– The scenario may be similar, but I hope, although this hope is not as great as in the case of Portugal or other countries in a large percentage of fully vaccinated against COVID-19, that despite the large number of cases, severe disease requiring hospitalization, admission deaths will occur less frequently than last year. For this purpose, preventive vaccinations are used. They are, of course, supposed to reduce the transmission of the pathogen, protect against the asymptomatic and symptomatic course of the disease, but from the medical point of view, they are primarily to protect against the severe course of the disease. In fact, in the context of severe complications of COVID-19, vaccinations do a great job, reducing their occurrence by over 90%. When we talk about deaths due to COVID-19, all currently available vaccines reduce the risk of its occurrence by over 90%. In the case of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine it is 92%, J&J 95%, and for mRNA vaccines it is between 96 and 98%. – says the doctor Bartosz Fiałek.
Vaccinations work in over 90 percent.
Bartosz Fiałek emphasizes that due to vaccinations the situation is different than it was last autumn or this spring.
– I hope that there will be fewer patients in hospitals than in the times before the introduction of vaccinations, during the so-called the second wave of the epidemic and the third, when the immunization program was just starting. We must remember that the immune response in the case of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19 takes about 5-6 weeks to build, says the rheumatologist.
– The mathematical models I have found indicate, as well as experience from previous epidemic waves and other countries, that by the end of the month we will have about 5. cases. However, I hope that there will be fewer cases requiring hospitalization. If hospitals are blocked again by the influx of a large number of COVID-19 patients, we will again record tens of thousands. excess deaths during the year. Deaths that could have been avoided if the healthcare system had not been paralyzed – adds the doctor.
Fiałek reminds that the percentage of fully vaccinated Poles is still low, but this should be enough to prevent the number of people admitted to the hospital from being too high.
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– We must be aware that less than 53 percent. of fully vaccinated Polish women and Poles is a highly insufficient percentage for my hopes for a low number of severe cases to be fulfilled in 100%. I can already see that the first patients come to us in a serious condition, some COVID-19 patients have already died due to late admission to the hospital. It does not look good, but if I were to compare the current situation to the one from a year ago, now I see a smaller number of patients going to the hospital – says the doctor.
– I remember that I had my first medical duty at the HED of the new hospital on October 31. That day, six ambulances were waiting in the driveway because we had so many patients that we had no room to receive new ones. It is possible that it may be similar now, but I hope that there will be no such pressure of patients on hospitals – he emphasizes.
It is high time to introduce restrictions
Over 2 infections mean it is probably time to introduce restrictions. Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said some time ago that the moment when the government starts thinking about it, it will exceed a thousand new cases. And we already have twice as many. However, unlike last year’s autumn, the restrictions are to be introduced not at the national, but at the poviat level.
– This is the moment, because waiting too long can lead to the fact that in those places where we already record many cases of COVID-19 that must use specialist help, they can lead to clogging of health care, to extreme inefficiency of the care system health. In the context of vaccination against COVID-19, we see the following situation – regions with a low vaccination rate have more COVID-19 cases than regions with a higher vaccination rate, says Fiałek.
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It is not difficult to identify the regions of Poland that are most at risk of introducing restrictions. These are the eastern provinces with the highest number of infections and the lowest percentage of fully vaccinated people.
– The areas currently under a state of emergency in Poland are vaccinated in the smallest percentage and this is where we have the most cases. I believe that restrictions should be introduced in that area now, which will protect the health care system from clogging, because when the system becomes inefficient, it will not be possible to treat not only COVID-19 patients, but also all other acute and chronic patients. diseases – says Fiałek.
The doctor notes that the restrictions must be introduced early enough, because their late implementation may lead to excess deaths.
– We cannot allow this to happen, we have to react in advance. In general, introducing a given activity means that we see its effects only after approx. 14 days, and some say that even after 21. So if today we introduce a red zone in a given poviat, then only in about two weeks will we see how this activity influenced the situation epidemic in a given area – explains the doctor.
All doctors are extremely exhausted
It is impossible not to notice that the increase in COVID-19 infections coincides with a huge crisis in the health care system, practically in every area. What could this mean in the coming months?
– All healthcare workers are ultra-tired. For two reasons. The first is the underfunding of the healthcare system, which means we have extreme staff shortages and we have to work in several places. Not because we want to, but because on the one hand, salaries are inadequate in many places and doctors have to earn extra money to live with dignity. The second aspect is that if we did not work in several places, our workplaces would have to be closed. Closing health care facilities is not a problem for us, doctors, because we can easily find work elsewhere. Here we come to a situation where, in the event of the closure of the poviat hospital in which, for example, I work every day, overnight 90 people living in the district lose a place where they can be treated. This is the main problem – says Fiałek.
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As the doctor emphasizes, tired employees are pulling the health care system with the last forces, they provide services in accordance with the current medical knowledge, but health protection operates at a level close to failure.
– This applies to all medical professions, the problem is visible everywhere. Paramedics, nurses, electroradiology technicians, laboratory diagnosticians and physiotherapists are protesting, because every industry has a staffing problem, says Fiałek.
We are in for a catastrophe
Bartosz Fiałek points out that the current condition of the health care system is influenced by two factors.
– We are tired of the bad organization of the system, on the one hand, and the COVID-19 pandemic on the other. Every now and then we have an increased number of people going to the hospital. Most of us haven’t had a vacation this year, I haven’t. Doctors dropped out of schedules because they were sick, if only because of COVID-19. Underfunding and staff shortages were further exacerbated by a new infectious disease. I really don’t know how it will continue, but many people are considering emigrating or migrating to the private sector. And another matter – according to research – about 15 percent. doctors will resign from practicing after the pandemic, he will simply retire – says the rheumatologist.
— In my opinion, we are facing a catastrophe. I am not talking about frightening, this is a real assessment. There are really very few of us. 2,4 physicians per 1000 inhabitants is the smallest percentage of the European Union countries, of which approx. He is now in retirement age. Some of them will say enough after the pandemic and take a well-deserved rest – he adds.
It could be even worse
Fiałek warns that it is bad, and it could be much worse. There are few doctors, and there may be less and less.
– The data show that there are to be approx. 2 million vacancies in the health care sector in EU countries by the end of 2025. The pandemic revealed staff shortages, not only in Poland. I myself get offers from Switzerland, Scandinavian countries, which are extremely interesting in terms of finances and ergonomics of work and life abroad. Other countries will attract Polish, highly educated doctors who will be provided with everything. Along with moving, a language course for the family, finding a business flat. We can go there to the ready and after meeting the formal requirements, we start working – emphasizes Fiałek.
– If nothing changes, we will have high values of preventable deaths in Poland. The protest that takes place in the so-called White Town 2.0 must bring positive solutions for the entire system. If the rulers do not bet on it, it will be dangerous to live here in the context of health security, due to the limits and regulations related to access to public health care – says the doctor.
As he points out, the private sector in the health care system is only an apparent rescue.
– Private care cuts the lines. Thanks to the fact that I work privately, someone will get to the rheumatology clinic after three months, not six in the public sector. But this does not change much, because there are no doctors, we will not duplicate ourselves – the doctor emphasizes.
– The future, also after COVID-19, is dark, concludes Fiałek.
Do you want to test your COVID-19 immunity after vaccination? Have you been infected and want to check your antibody levels? See the COVID-19 immunity test package, which you will perform at Diagnostics network points.
Also read:
- COVID-19 despite vaccination – who is most at risk? A risk calculator was created
- New rules for declaring deaths. Changes in the regulations are coming
- BioNTech chief: a new COVID-2022 vaccine will be needed in 19
- The fourth wave is accelerating, but Poles are not afraid of infection [SONDAŻ]
- Norwegians started treating COVID-19 like the flu? There is a reaction from the local authorities
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