Richard van Hooydonk: “We are already in a mixed material-digital reality”

The trend analyst spoke about how the pandemic will accelerate the change in business structures, what skills leaders need in an environment of uncertainty, and why science fiction should become a compulsory school subject

— At the international conference Beyond Tomorrow, which was held online at the end of 2020, you made a presentation on crisis management in business processes. Please clarify whether it is possible to effectively restructure the processes in the company during periods of turbulence comparable to the current crisis?

— One of the consequences of the current crisis will be the bankruptcy of many enterprises. One of the reasons is outdated structures. Today’s corporations are still structured much like the enterprises of the 60s of the last century: boards of directors secretly make decisions that are secret from employees and middle management, which then have profound consequences for the entire company. But such a business organization cannot be prepared for crises like the current one. After the pandemic, we will see changes in business structures: decisions will be made more openly, bosses will be taken by executives accountable to employees, who can lose these places if their decisions harm the interests of the company.

It must be understood that turbulent times require the development of soft skills and the ability to manage under conditions of uncertainty, and these are exactly the skills that the management of many companies lack today. Just a significant part of these firms and suffers losses today.

Large businesses such as General Electric, Coca-Cola, Time Warner and other multinational corporations are also not in the win so far. But we can observe a multiple increase in the assets of companies related to online sales and rental of real estate: for example, the net asset value of Airbnb for 2020 increased immediately to $35 billion, Amazon – up to $500 billion, Uber – up to $68 billion. with the “figure”, only benefit from the current situation.

“States are good at detecting crises, but they are bad at predicting them”

Why did only a few visionaries, like Gates, predict the danger of a pandemic and so few investors sponsor research that could prevent this situation? What needs to be done in the future so that investors invest more in science and medicine?

– I agree, earlier there were not enough investments in such scientific research. But the point is not only and not so much in the unwillingness of entrepreneurs to invest in medical developments – it is precisely thanks to sponsored research that we are already living longer today and can count on more effective treatments. Another problem is the slowness of the state bureaucracy. And now we are talking not only about control and supervisory bodies, but also about the police and medicine. Now states are generally good at detecting crises, but they are bad at predicting them.

Futurologists talk a lot about how robotics or the fight against crime will develop, but very little about one of the most pressing problems – global warming. Meanwhile, climate change could threaten catastrophe in the coming decades. What needs to be done to prevent the threat?

– Here it is worth deciding who is responsible for global warming and who exactly takes measures to stop this process. As statistics show, most of the harmful industries that contribute to the increase in global temperatures are concentrated in India and China. On the contrary, decisions taken at the EU level will significantly reduce the contribution of the countries of the Old World to global warming in the near future: by 2030, carbon dioxide emissions in Europe will be reduced by about 55%.

In short: we need to think like Tesla, that is, not to focus on ready-made solutions, but to think about innovative ways of developing technologies. For example, it is quite realistic to make renewable energy sources the main ones in the next 20 years, including, by the way, using the capacities of space energy. our country is now also actively engaged in this issue.

– Previously, you talked about new forms of control and terrorists using drones for their own purposes. But governments have also long and actively used drones and control many aspects of our lives, which was especially evident when the world was in lockdown. What needs to be done to prevent the Orwellian scenario in the future?

– Indeed, the future of technology may threaten with truly Orwellian prospects. That is, we will most likely be able to pay for goods and services simply by bringing our face to the reading camera, but in the same way, with the help of CCTV cameras and our metadata, governments will be able to monitor our every move. How to prevent it? Here we can draw an analogy with robotics. In the next 40 years, artificial intelligence can potentially replace humans in 75% of jobs. But just because it’s possible doesn’t mean it will. In the end, it is up to us to decide whether robots will replace us or not. It is the same with drones patrolling the streets and other technologies in the arsenal of the authorities: do we, citizens, want to be followed in this way?

In order for our children to have ready answers to the upcoming technological challenges, we must pay attention to the development of the humanities, discuss ethical issues. One of the effective tools would be the creation of ethics committees at state institutions and NGOs – in this way, decisions would be discussed in advance for their ethics.

“The evolution of technology is far ahead of their understanding by society”

— What modern scientific research impresses you the most?

— Nanotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence — they are developing so fast! It seems that we have let the genie out of the bottle: we can say that we already live in a mixed material-digital reality.

What developments or technologies scare you?

“Today, deepfakes, that is, technologies that allow you to mount fake videos and distribute these videos using the viral effect of social networks, are of the greatest concern.

Another problem at the moment is that governments and companies do not control the algorithms: they agree to use them based on insufficient data. Officials and employees are increasingly making decisions based on the results of algorithms, and the human factor is excluded.

Cybercrime threatens infrastructure instability: these days, entire cities can be cut off from electricity using cyberattacks. As I mentioned earlier, it is necessary to create ethical councils at large organizations – already now their lack is fully felt: the evolution of technologies is far ahead of their understanding by society, hence the new threats. It does not contribute to development that the bureaucracy in most countries is completely unprepared for new challenges and cannot quickly adapt, which we see in the current coronavirus pandemic.

– Apparently, the predictions popular back in the 1980s that humanity would soon create strong AI and begin to actively conquer space were premature. But even at the beginning of the last decade, no one could have foreseen Brexit or the election of a man like Donald Trump as president of the United States. In that case, can we predict anything with certainty at all?

— Yes, in the 1980s, we expected that in 10-15 years we would begin to colonize Mars, and robots would replace us in jobs that required repetitive hard work. But it turned out that there is a significant time lag between the development and implementation of ideas and technologies. Even so, we cannot say that the same space industry has fallen into a stupor: SpaceX and Virgin rockets are already successfully making repeated takeoffs and landings. Previously, only government agencies like NASA decided which technologies would be developed, but now such decisions are made by private companies.

The problem is that the Earth’s resources are not infinite. According to scientists, in 500 years the Earth will become practically uninhabited and we will have to look for a new shelter. So do not worry about investing in the development of space travel technologies: we cannot but develop them, our existence as a species depends on them.

– Our era can hardly be called peaceful: right now there are more than 40 wars in the world. How will the problem of armed conflicts be resolved in the future?

— I’m afraid not. Well, except that wars will be fought remotely: there will be fewer deaths, but material damage is higher (remember at least the same example with cyber threats). Let’s not forget about such a threat as space wars, which are terrible with the possibility of paralyzing the infrastructure of entire states by destroying satellites.

“We must make the future our constant concern”

Do you think we are really on the way to the transhumanist utopia that Yuval Noah Harari talks about in his book Homo Deus?

“Advances in technology open up interesting prospects for our species. Technologies for implanting hearing aids directly into the cerebral cortex are already becoming available. Samples of eye implants are being created, and about 200 people around the world have already implanted brain chips in themselves, with which they can control robotic prostheses.

That is, one should not think that a transhumanist utopia is a fantasy: technology is only a matter of time. Moreover, in 600 years or so we will be able to fully upload our consciousness to the cloud, and this is precisely the core of our personality: knowledge, experience, memories, emotions. If all this is digitized, material shells, that is, our bodies, will not be needed at all.

I myself already wear two subcutaneous implants and in two years I plan to implant a chip in my brain.

What needs to be done so that we can more effectively predict future changes?

We must make the future our constant concern. Changes in organizations take an average of seven years, which means that we no longer have time to gradually respond to the effects of a pandemic, rising global temperatures and so on. That means you need to act now.

In addition, futures studies and the study of science fiction should become compulsory school subjects, and visionaries should be an integral part of the team of any organization. Only in this way can we ensure sustainable technological development and anticipate unexpected threats.

Thanks to SAS Institute Inc. – organizer of the Beyond Tomorrow conference – for help in preparing the interview.

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