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The pandemic of 2020 has brought an unprecedented number of deaths, not only from COVID-19 itself, but from other diseases as well. The latest estimates show that in the 29 OECD countries, the past year has resulted in nearly a million excess deaths. Worse still, Poland was in the lead of countries with the worst result. There is also a surprise – there is a country where the death rate has decreased despite the pandemic. Get to know the details.
- The pandemic year 2020 has brought almost one million additional deaths – exactly 979 thousand.
- The highest absolute number of excess deaths was recorded in the US. Poland closes the top five
- We have one of the highest death rates per 100. residents. It is worse only in Lithuania
- New Zealand is the only country in the analyzed group where the mortality rate fell below the expected level
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage.
2020 saw nearly a million excess deaths
Probably no one doubts that the past 2020 was a “death year”. The number of deaths from COVID-19 alone has exceeded 1,8 million. The indirect impact of the coronavirus pandemic on mortality during this critical period also needs to be considered. An international team of scientists working under the supervision of an epidemiologist from the University of Oxford, Dr. Nazrul Islam, decided to take a look at it and use statistics to try to answer the question, how much healthier the world would be if not for the shadow of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.
In a study published on May 19, they estimated the number of excessive deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 29 OECD countries. They are: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland , Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United States.
Why did scientists limit their analysis to just these places? According to the researchers, only these countries reported the complete data necessary to conduct the study.
This concept means the number of deaths during the crisis, which is above the level of previous years. Thus, they are not only people who died due to COVID-19, but also victims of complications in chronic diseases, insufficient health care or difficult access to specialists and a lack of diagnosis.
In other words, it is the difference between the number of all-cause deaths that occurred during a pandemic and the expected number of deaths based on recent results. In this study, the last five years (2016–2020) were analyzed.
In this limited but still huge subset of the world’s population, the COVID-19 pandemic has taken a bleak toll. According to estimates in the countries included in 2020, the pandemic resulted in a total of nearly one million additional deaths – exactly 979 thousand.
Excess deaths – most in the USA, Poland in the lead
Excessive deaths were found in 26 analyzed countries, except for New Zealand, Denmark and Norway. New Zealand in particular caught attention, but more about it later. The researchers point out that in many countries the estimated number of excessive deaths far exceeded the number of reported deaths from COVID-19.
The highest absolute number of excess deaths was recorded in the United States. There were 458 thousand of them. The second is Great Britain – 94,4 thousand. excess deaths, Italy – 89,1 thous. and Spain – 84,1 thous. Poland closes the sad top five. In our country, there were 60,1 thousand. excess deaths (details of the analysis regarding our country later in the text). Details are shown in the graphic below (Top Ten).
Source: bmj.com/content
Given the age difference, in almost all countries, the excessive death rates were significantly higher among men. The largest number of excess deaths among men per 100 inhabitants were recorded in Lithuania – 285 on average. Unfortunately, Poland is second – 191followed by Spain – 179, Hungary – 174 and Italy – 168.
As for female mortality (per 100) – the worst situation was again recorded in Lithuania – 210 deaths, Spain – 180, Hungary – 169, Slovenia – 158 and Belgium – 151.
The situation in individual countries, broken down by sex and months, is presented in the graphic below. Blue is for deceased women, and yellow is for deaths among men.
Source: bmj.com/content
Both among men and women, excessive mortality was associated with advanced age – it was especially visible in the case of people aged 75+. The excess deaths among young people aged 15 and less were more in line with expectations in most of the countries analyzed.
Excess deaths in Poland per 100 inhabitants – worse only in Lithuania
In terms of the number of deaths, last year was the darkest for Poland since the end of World War II. In 2020, over 485 people died in our country. people. Moreover, previous reports have already pointed to one of the highest excess death rates (more on this in the text: Poland with the highest excess mortality rate in Europe. British REPORT). This was also confirmed by the discussed analysis.
Since the beginning of 2021, over 191 have died in Poland. people. According to GUS data, by April 2021, the number of excess deaths in our country amounted to over 105 thousand.
As mentioned above, Poland was among the top five countries with the highest absolute number of excess deaths. Their number was estimated at 60,1 thousand. – including approx. 35,4 thous. men and 24,7 thous. women. Moreover, we have one of the highest death rates per 100. residents. It was only worse in Lithuania. The situation with us and our eastern neighbor is presented in the graphic below. They show deaths by gender – blue is for dead women and yellow is for dead women – deaths among men.
Source: bmj.com/content
When writing about excessive mortality in 2020, it is worth mentioning a recent report by Dr. Paweł Basiukiewicz, cardiologist, internal medicine specialist and head of the Observation and Infectious Department of the Western Hospital in Grodzisk Mazowiecki. A document entitled “Not a single tear. Healthcare in a pandemic »identifies possible causes of a large number of redundant deaths. Its author emphasizes, however, that this is a subjective view.
The doctor pointed out that these are partly covid deaths, but also cases caused by healthcare failure in the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the problems indicated by Basiukiewicz “overreaction to the appearance of the virus”. “(…) The extraordinary isolation and disinfection procedures used in health care, preventing the possibility of infection, lead to neglect in the field of diagnosis and treatment of both” COVID “and” nonCOVID “patients”, writes the report.
– At any cost, we inhibit the transmission of the coronavirus – admits the doctor. – As we can see, it doesn’t do anything. Meanwhile, the effect of the observed over-reaction to the appearance of the virus is an increasing health debt, i.e., as Basiukiewicz explains, a delay in the provision of services in all areas of medicine. “These excess deaths should be viewed as a very high interest rate on this debt”, admits Paweł Basiukiewicz in the report. Details of the report in the article: Over 90 thousand. excess deaths in Poland. A doctor with a collapse in health care.
The exceptional situation of New Zealand – less deaths than before the pandemic
However, it was not everywhere that the pandemic had so much impact on the overall mortality in 2020. It turns out that in Norway and Denmark the deaths recorded at that time were in fact in line with the trends predicted from previous years. “This suggests that the pandemic did not significantly affect the overall mortality during this period,” write the authors of the report.
The situation of New Zealand may seem unusual. It is the only country in the analyzed group where the mortality rate fell below the expected level – 2020 brought an average of approx. fewer deaths than indicated by the model estimates.
– New Zealand was the only country to have lower than expected mortality in all age groups, both for men and women. This could potentially be attributed to a strategy implemented early in the pandemic, the researchers explain. Let us recall that New Zealand is one of the countries best coping with the epidemic, from the beginning of the pandemic there were, among others, for hard lockdown and contact tracking.
Considering all the data presented, the findings are quite bleak. However, the researchers emphasize that such an assessment will help understand the overall impact of a pandemic on human life – a pandemic that is still ongoing. Commenting on the new study, researchers at Imperial College London note that the full impact of COVID-19 may not be visible for many years to come. Especially in lower-income countries, where factors such as poverty, lack of vaccines, poor health systems and high population density put people at increased risk of COVID-19 infection and related harm.
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