Pulmonologist: we can expect more flu this season

The flu season is ahead of us. What it will look like in the era of a pandemic is unknown. It is known, however, that it is worth getting vaccinated. – I encourage everyone to get vaccinated against the flu, especially those who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19, because they will have some protection – says Prof. Adam Antczak from the General and Oncological Pulmonology Clinic of the Medical University of Lodz.

1. In the flu season 2020-2021, approximately 1,78 million cases were recorded in Poland. For comparison – 4,85 million people fell ill in the previous season
2. The decline is due to the coronavirus pandemic. The prevailing COVID-19 has reduced the amount of research on influenza, on the other hand, anti-covid masks have also reduced transmission of the influenza virus
3. What will the next flu season look like? Hard to predict. However, experts remind you that it is worth getting vaccinated against the flu
4. As emphasized by prof. Adam Antczak, people vaccinated against influenza more mildly also suffer from COVID-19
5. More information can be found on the Onet homepage

Flu season – what will it be like?

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) usually suggests getting the flu vaccine by the end of October. However, the coming flu season may be slightly different. The COVID-19 pandemic is still unstable, and experts say it could have ramifications for preventing and treating flu.

According to Dr. Claudia Hoyen, director of childhood infection control at UH Rainbow Babies and Children’s Hospital in Cleveland, when the restrictions were loosened and the mask no longer required to wear masks in open public spaces, the viruses began to spread again, causing symptoms of colds and flu. According to the CDC, there aren’t many cases of influenza in the US yet, but that could change soon.

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To predict what the flu season in the United States will be like, experts often look to the southern hemisphere, where the season usually starts in June and the flu peak in August.

“Australia, with its restrictive pandemic restrictions for travelers arriving in the country, has very low flu activity,” said Dr. William Schaffner, professor of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

«In contrast, China, which has more interaction with the outside world, has had a moderate flu season. So we think that we too will have at least a moderate season this year, starting with the start of the school year, ”added Schaffner.

Flu fell ill

According to the CDC, there are between 9 million and 45 million flu cases each year in the US during the average flu season. Last year was not one of those. Flu was practically non-existent in the United States. Only a few thousand cases were registered throughout the year, and one child died. For comparison, in the 2019-2020 season, 199 children died, and in the earlier season – 144.

The “twindemia” with the high number of influenza and COVID-19 cases that some experts predicted in 2020 has thankfully not happened.

1. Flu in Poland 2020/2021. How many sicknesses and deaths?

And how will it be in Poland? This question is answered by prof. Adam Antczak from the General and Oncological Pulmonology Clinic of the Medical University of Lodz.

How does the professor think the flu season will run, which may coincide with the fourth wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic?

Prof. Adam Antczak: The flu season traditionally begins in mid-September and ends around mid-April, with the highest severity of the disease occurring in January, February and March. Of course, the flu season is a phenomenon which we can presume, but it is quite erratic, i.e. often such seasons are very high and have a lot of sickness, contrary to what we would expect. At the moment, the situation is unique in that the pandemic overlaps with the coming flu season in the Northern Hemisphere. Last season, we experienced a sharp drop in the number of cases – there were no reported deaths from influenza in Poland. This is proof that pandemic protective measures such as distance, masks, disinfection were very effective. Lockdown when it comes to breaking the epidemiological chain is an extremely effective tool (aside from its psychological, political and social consequences).

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Now we are in for the fourth wave of COVID-19. And if we look at the published statistics, we can see that we are in a very similar situation today as we were last year. Children will go to school, and remember that they are vectors of COVID-19 and influenza infections, and a sharp increase in COVID-19 incidence is likely between September and the end of October. Then the kind of second wave from last fall will repeat itself. How big will she be? We do not know. But remember that there are areas in Poland where the percentage of vaccinated people is very high, so hopefully it will not look too bad. The flu comes on top of all of this. Human behavior is different today, e.g. the fear of COVID-19 a year ago was much greater and motivated people to behave safely, which resulted in the fact that there were few infections and flu. Is it like that now? Not. This is because a large part of the population has been vaccinated against COVID-19 and there are people who are less afraid and behave less safely, e.g. they do not wear a mask. In addition, there is fatigue with the pandemic situation, and therefore part of the society is naturally rebellious, bored and no longer afraid of the ongoing threat. The state’s effectiveness in executing these safe behaviors is also weaker.

This means that we can expect more flu this season. What size will it be? It is not known. Everything will depend on how people behave, what measures will be taken in the context of a pandemic. The second issue is specific immunization or flu vaccines. The Polish experience from last year is that There were not enough flu vaccines. We don’t know if there will be a repeat from last year. Certainly, there will be more interest in them than in previous seasons. And the consequence of the greater interest in the flu vaccine in the 2020/2021 season will, I hope, be that more vaccines will soon be delivered to Poland. And as far as I know orders are larger for the 2021/2022 season.

Can COVID-19 and influenza vaccination be combined?

Were Poles willing to vaccinate against the flu last year?

Last year, we wanted to get vaccinated very much, intuitively thinking that if we get vaccinated against the flu, it might protect us from a pandemic. And here’s a curiosity – influenza vaccinated people had a 2,5 times lower chance of being hospitalized for COVID-19 and a 3,3 times lower chance of developing a form of COVID-19 that would require hospitalization. In the context of the pandemic, flu vaccination also paid off. So now I urge everyone to get the flu vaccine, especially those who haven’t got the COVID-19 vaccine, as they will have some protection. I admit that it is difficult for me to understand why people do not vaccinate against COVID-19 when it is available virtually on every corner and for free. It is a very profitable medical procedure that protects us from a severe form of disease, from death and hospitalization. And especially those who are unvaccinated fall ill and die. Flu is exactly a symmetrical picture of this.

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Can a flu vaccination be combined with a COVID-19 vaccination, i.e. be vaccinated with both vaccines in a short time?

Both vaccinations can be done in a short time, i.e. it is not recommended to do these vaccinations together for precautionary but not substantive reasons (probably nothing would happen if we vaccinated a person with both vaccines at the same time). As a precautionary measure, an interval of two weeks between vaccinations is recommended. Remember that we have plenty of time for the flu vaccine, but not that much for COVID-19. The flu vaccination gives us immunity after a week, and we have the most antibodies after a month. We can get vaccinated against influenza even in December or January, or whenever we have access to the vaccine. It will always benefit us.

We know that the Government’s Strategic Reserves Agency is to be the central distributor of flu vaccines. How will the professor comment on that?

This is a solution that can actually improve access to vaccines. I am not skeptical about this as long as the Agency does not keep these vaccines only for the so-called black hour. We don’t know how many vaccines the Agency will have. If institutions efficiently seek them, their flow will also be resilient. Will there be enough of them? We don’t know that. It is to be expected that, rather not, for a simple reason – vaccines in the world are a scarce commodity. It is not that there is an oversupply of flu vaccines in the world. It is exactly the opposite. The world is buying flu vaccines en masse. And the pandemic has made it demand in the world increased by 100 percent. In Poland, people vaccinate poorly. An example is the vaccination against COVID-19, where we are laboriously going up and people have to be persuaded to do so. Poland cannot afford to buy a gigantic amount of flu vaccines, because no one will sell such a quantity.

Do we know how many people were vaccinated against influenza before the COVID-19 pandemic and during the pandemic?

Before the COVID-19 era, influenza was vaccinated in Poland about 4 percent population, while in the 2020/2021 season it was vaccinated over 6% What does that mean in numbers? They are not so impressive anymore. About one and a half million Poles were vaccinated before the pandemic, and two million three hundred in the 2020/2021 season. So it is not a lot, because let’s remember that in order to achieve population resistance, we should have over 60 percent. vaccinated population (preferably 80%). However, it is also good, because we have an upward curve by as much as 50 percent. more Poles were vaccinated.

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