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The fifth wave of the coronavirus in Poland is just accelerating, but looking at the disturbing forecasts about record numbers of new infections, it should come as no surprise that the increasing number of questions about its end should come as no surprise. The problem is that estimating how long the current wave of COVID-19 cases will last is at least a breakneck task. Poland is hard to compare to any country where Omikron is losing strength, and the biggest problem is the very low percentage of vaccinated people. One thing is certain: in the face of the announced infection records, we have to take into account enormous problems in the functioning of the state.
- The fifth wave has become a fact – for several days we have been observing a significant increase in the number of coronavirus infections
- The worst, however, is yet to come. According to forecasts, in mid-February there may be as many as 120 new cases. per day
- According to experts, what we should worry about is not only the duration of the wave, but the damage it can cause. The fact that Omikron seems to be milder than the previous variants does not mean that such a large number of cases will not translate into an increase in hospitalizations and deaths.
- Another problem will be the functioning of the state in the face of such a large absenteeism of employees of many companies who will be in isolation or quarantine
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
On January 22, we crossed the barrier of 40 thousand. new coronavirus infections. Even during the fourth wave, caused by the Delta variant, there were not so many cases. And yet according to the forecasts of research units dealing with the analysis of the course of the pandemic this is just the beginning of the wave that is to be the largest and most violent of all that has already passed through Poland.
Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said on Monday that we will most likely see 50 in the statistics this week. new infections, and at the peak of the wave, expected in mid-February, this number may at least double. Even more disturbing are the forecasts of the MOCOS Group, to which the estimates are at the level of 120 thousand. illnesses a day.
The problem is that this data is greatly underestimated. Undetected infections, i.e. cases not entered into the system, from patients who test themselves privately and / or at home, and those who do not do it at all, are not included in them.despite the fact that they have developed symptoms of COVID-19 or have had close contact with an infected person and there is a high probability that they have become infected, and the infection passes asymptomatically. Given this fact, it is impossible to estimate how many cases are active or how many new cases are ahead of us.
- How can the fifth wave go? Experts about possible scenarios. “It’s the only light in the tunnel”
Experts have a similar problem with estimating how much the increase in covid statistics may take. Observing the epidemic situation in the countries where Omikron reached faster than Poland (the variant was detected on November 9, 2021 in Africa, within two weeks it was identified in several European countries, and in Poland the first case was announced on December 16), one could be tempted to say that the fifth wave, although violent, will be short, shorter than the wave of infections with Delta or previous SARS-CoV-2 variants.
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Omikron in Poland. Poland like Great Britain?
This is the fifth wave, for example, in Great Britain, where the number of infections has increased significantly since the beginning of December, when about 50 were recorded. cases per day, until the beginning of January, when infection records were observed at the level of 200 thousand. cases (the worst was on January 4, when over 218 infections were reported). Since then, the numbers have been dropping successively, since the middle of the month they have fluctuated between 70. and 90 thousand new cases.
The big question is: Can we compare with the country where the vaccination rate is currently 76 percent, while in Poland it is still only 56,8 percent? (and only 24,3% for a booster dose)?
According to prof. dr. hab. Krzysztof Pyrć, head of the Virology Laboratory at the Małopolska Center of Biotechnology of the Jagiellonian University, the answer to this question is very difficult, because apart from the vaccinated, we have many convalescents who have acquired some form of immunity. – Unfortunately, we do not know exactly how numerous this group is – he adds.
- Why should survivors be vaccinated against COVID-19? Important discovery
When is the end of the fifth wave?
So what scenario in the case of the fifth wave should be expected in Poland?
We are entering a period when there will be a lot of new infections. In countries where vaccination coverage has been very high, there has been a split in the lines of infection and death in the current wave – the high number of infections has not translated into as many deaths as might have been expected from earlier waves. We are just entering the fifth wave and with a relatively low level of vaccination, we do not know what the situation will look like in our country. Of course, I personally hope that the death toll will be as low as possible, but we cannot hope for a strategy. There is a great risk that healthcare will suffer greatly and we will see a large number of deaths again. However, it is far too early to talk about when the fifth wave will end – we are just entering it.
We must also take into account the problems that will arise as a result of so many new infections. – A lot of people will get sick, which will make them unable to function professionally. This, in turn, will create a huge threat to the operation of most industries, not only health, but also transport and defense – adds the expert.
Let’s remind that Currently, almost 1 million Poles are in quarantine alone. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, 36 were added in one day. 995 infected. 252 people have died, 14 are hospitalized. 152 patients, 1 thousand people use the help of a ventilator. 164 of them. Quarantine covers 946 thousand. 658 people.
- Also read: The government cut quarantine to seven days. How does the doctor judge it?
Do you want to test your COVID-19 immunity after vaccination? Have you been infected and want to check your antibody levels? See the COVID-19 immunity test package, which you will perform at Diagnostics network points.
The editorial board recommends:
- Prof. Fal: Don’t get too attached to the concept of herd immunity in the context of the coronavirus
- Free COVID-19 tests in pharmacies. “I have concerns about the implementation of the government idea”
- How effective is the fourth dose? Israel announces further arrangements
- An “invisible” version of the Omicron has been discovered. He could have caused a huge wave of infections in Europe
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