In September or early October, we will face a sharp increase in coronavirus infections among people up to 24 years of age – predicts prof. Ernest Kuchar from the Medical University of Warsaw. In his opinion, this group is the least exposed to severe disease, but they can infect their relatives, e.g. grandparents.
Coronavirus in Poland. What will be the fourth wave?
On Wednesday, the Ministry of Health said research confirmed 208 new coronavirus infections, one person with COVID-19 has died. The number of new COVID-19 infections has increased from last Wednesday. According to many experts, one should take into account a greater increase in the incidence in the following weeks.
– The experiences of those countries that already had the fourth wave show that it is developing faster than the previous ones, which is a derivative of greater contagiousness of the virus, because the disease is mainly caused by the Delta variant – Prof. Ernest Kuchar from the Medical University of Warsaw.
Last week, the head of the Ministry of Health, Adam Niedzielski, wrote on Twitter that the level of infections with the Delta variant in the last 4 weeks is already over 86 percent. «So far in Poland we have confirmed 404 cases of the Delta variant. The Alpha variant, which is at the level of less than 8 percent. of all infections, is a thing of the past in Poland »- wrote Niedzielski.
According to prof. The Kuchara Delta variant is approximately twice as contagious as the third wave.
– Therefore, one should expect faster increases in the incidence. Pandemics are increasing exponentially, not linearly. Our mind is used to the fact that this number will increase linearly, but the exponential growth is only slow at first, then it resembles a snowball effect and becomes very violent, said Kuchar.
According to an expert, many people in Poland are still susceptible to infection. – Vaccinated persons and convalescents have at least partial immunity to the Delta variant. However, this immunity probably diminishes over time – he noticed.
Prof. Kuchar believes that in September or early October we will see a sharp increase in the disease. And as in other countries where the fourth wave is taking place, it will mainly fall among people up to 24 years of age, i.e. adolescents and young adults. – They are the most active and connected people, convinced that they are not in danger of coronavirus – he said.
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In his opinion, a large number of infections will not translate into a significant number of hospitalizations and deaths, because this group is generally healthy. – However, younger people do not live in isolation from society – they can infect parents and grandparents, and this is already dangerous. It is also worth remembering that many young people in Poland are obese. For them, passing COVID-19 may be a challenge, he added.
Prof. Kuchar also commented on the announcement by the head of the Ministry of Health, Adam Niedzielski, regarding possible restrictions. Niedzielski said that if there are two regions with a similar number of infections per 100. residents, more restrictions will be introduced where vaccination rates are lower, and therefore the risk of spreading infection is greater. – It must be a kind of motivation for immunization. I have doubts whether it will be effective. The question is whether patients have access to and follow vaccination level data, said Prof. Cook.
Government data shows that approx. 60 percent. Poles have so far taken at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. However, the percentage of vaccinated people can vary greatly from region to region.
In recent weeks, a lot has been said in the media about the possible obligation to vaccinate in professional groups – white personnel or uniformed services. According to prof. Kuchar, such an obligation has already been introduced, for example, in the USA or some countries of Western Europe. – It is a necessity, because this virus spreads by droplets, and it is difficult to keep a distance, e.g. in barracks, so compulsory vaccination is justified by the real risk of falling ill – he stressed.
Author: Szymon Zdziebijowski / PAP
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