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19 people die from COVID-800 every day in an unvaccinated society. In the vaccinated British, with a comparable number of cases, deaths are seven times lower – told PAP virologist Prof. Włodzimierz Gut.
- How will the fourth wave spread? The virologist is of the opinion that everything will depend on whether the appropriate percentage of the population can be vaccinated.
- – At the moment, about 50 percent and over 10 percent have been vaccinated. acquired immunity after disease – estimated prof. Gut
- It is not enough to go the British way and let it all flow in the hope that the rest of society, especially young people, will gain immunity by passing COVID-19 in a gentle way – he explained
- More information can be found on the TvoiLokony home page
The professor, when asked about the issues of launching temporary hospitals and the threat to hospitality in Poland in connection with the announced fourth wave, replied that at a time when the daily number of SARS-CoV-2 cases was 27 cases, it was possible to speak of a threat, but at the moment, expecting a thousand cases a day, there is no question of it.
Prof. Fourth wave gut
He concluded that temporary hospitals are a good safeguard for the future, however at the moment there is no basis or necessity to start them up, as they would stand empty.
What’s next? How will the fourth wave spread? The virologist is of the opinion that everything will depend on whether the appropriate percentage of the population can be vaccinated. «At the moment, about 50% and over 10% of them have been vaccinated. acquired immunity after disease»- he estimated. He added that it is not enough to go the British way and let everything flow in the hope that the rest of society, especially young people, will gain immunity by passing COVID-19 in a gentle way.
How many deaths in fall?
«To feel safe, we need to reach 85%. Polish vaccine coverage” – He said. If this fails, “there will be deaths”.
How many? Prof. Gut replied that he proposed to use the imagination. «In a sufficiently unvaccinated society, 800 people die from COVID every day. The number of vaccinated Britons has seven times fewer deaths with a comparable number of cases ”.
The virologist, when asked about the possibility of being infected with two variants of the virus at the same time, explained that yes, such a co-infection is possible. However, he assured that it should not be particularly feared or attached to it. If only because the viruses in our body are constantly mutating and changing, so although it is possible to examine what we have become infected at the beginning, it is impossible to predict what will “come out” of us.
«New mutations arise all the time»
«The virus multiplies in such a way that it forms a certain matrix. And on this matrix, it is repeatedly rewritten by enzymes that are used for this »- explained the professor, adding that the scale of the combination of RNA virus recombination is enormous. «There will be roughly thirty different mutations in each recipe – most of them either unfavorable or not allowing any further process. For each active particle, roughly two hundred molecules are produced, which are useless »- he added.
Professor Gut concluded that during these “recipes”, about 1 million are created. different molecules, and it’s a mix of all kinds of mutations that arise all the time.
Prof. Gut: a mutation that does not produce symptoms will be dangerous
Sometimes, however, it happens that the virus changes in such a significant way that we are able to notice it – by examining it using any of the available methods, which – as noted by Prof. Gut – it’s around 100.
As he assured, none of the existing, permanent changes in the coronavirus is particularly important and does not change the epidemic situation. “There would be a significant change that would affect the dynamics of multiplication of the virus,” said the virologist. As he explained, it could happen that one of the versions of the virus, after infecting a person, would not cause symptoms for a long time, and yet such a person would already infect others. The second possibility that would be a threat is that the virus would change so that it would escape the pathogen’s sequencing methods used by scientists.
“This is what happened in the British Isles, where the new variant of the coronavirus was initially undetected in laboratories,” noted the professor. And he explained that this was due to the fact that, of all the methods available, the English used those that “avoided” this variant. Before they knew it, a variant called B.1.1.7, or British, dominated other variants in the UK and then spread around the world.
Prof. Gut added that in Poland such an oversight would be impossible. «They complained to us, Polish scientists, that they have been studying the samples too long, that others are doing it quickly. And we needed 48 hours because we were examining four areas of the virus genome not to miss anything. It was about certainty, »he said. In his opinion, there is a “virus research uncertainty theory” in virology, so you have to be very careful and thorough.
According to the virologist, the version of SARS-CoV-2 that has changed the most so far is Lambda, which “lost a big piece”, but this does not translate particularly into how it affects the human body or how it is transmitted.
Authors: Katarzyna Herbut, Mira Suchodolska
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