Prof. Fal: Don’t get too attached to the concept of herd immunity in the context of the coronavirus

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The level of vaccination in Poland is still low, so achieving herd immunity to coronavirus remains an unrealistic scenario. Some people – especially those who do not want to vaccinate – hope to acquire immunity as a result of COVID-19, which is very likely in the case of Omikron. Will we be more resilient and safer in the face of the next variants after the fifth wave? Prof. Andrzej Fal, head of the Department of Allergology, Lung Diseases and Internal Diseases at the hospital of the Ministry of Interior and Administration in Warsaw and president of the Polish Society of Public Health.

1. Herd immunity — necessary to protect people with lower immunity — we obtain thanks to vaccination or disease
2. Disease mainly supports humoral immunity. It is this immunity that fades out relatively quickly — explains prof. Andrzej Fal
3. We should not become attached to the concept of herd immunity in the context of the coronavirus if we do not create it through vaccination — adds the president of the Polish Society of Public Health
4. More information can be found on the Onet homepage

Herd immunity – what is it?

Herd immunity (also known as community, collective or environmental immunity) is the protection of non-immune people obtained after most of the population has developed antibodies, either by vaccinating as many people as possible, or by having a large group of people contracted the disease.

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The amount of the herd immunity threshold depends on the degree of contagiousness of a given pathogen. The immunity threshold for measles is, for example, 95%, and for mumps only 75-86%. population. With regard to the original coronavirus, the resistance was said to be at the level of 60-70%, with the Delta variant this threshold was calculated at 86%, for the current Omikron it is well above 90%.

Herd immunity thanks to Omikron?

Currently in Poland less than 57 percent are fully vaccinated. all residents. The COVID-19 infection is officially behind around 4,5 million people, which is another 11-12 percent. In total, about 70 percent. Still not enough to feel safe in the face of the Omikron variant, but paradoxically, perhaps the latest variant will provide this protection. It is very contagious, infecting both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated, it is estimated that up to half of the population in many countries will get Omikron, and as a result, antibodies will be produced by a significant proportion of the population. Paradoxically, it is thanks to the Omikron that we will obtain herd immunity?

— A little bit like that, but it’s not that rosy. Undoubtedly, if we get sick a lot, and Omikron causes huge increases in the disease, indeed those who get it will have antibodies right after – says Prof. Andrzej Fal.

— However, please remember what we said on the occasion of the second and third waves: disease mainly supports humoral immunity. It is this immunity that fades out relatively quickly. On the other hand, cellular immunity, the longer one, is stimulated less by disease and more by vaccination. Therefore, it is not entirely the case that being a healer will replace vaccination – adds the president of the Polish Society of Public Health.

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Prof. Fal draws attention to the way vaccinations are organized. He emphasizes that getting sick is not treated as full immunization and that will not change.

– In the short term, of course, after the Omicron wave, healers will certainly have some resistance, but this is not yet the target solution – he says.

Omikron in Poland does not have to be gentle

Prof. Fal cautions not to underestimate the Omikron variant. It is considered much milder than the Delta variant, but so far we have data from countries with better vaccination than Poland.

– We observe that in the countries through which the fifth wave related to Omicron passes, the course of infection, despite the great mass, is milder than in the case of the Delta or Alpha variants. However, let us bear in mind that we are looking at countries where the degree of vaccination is very high – he points out.

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The doctor emphasizes that breakthrough infections, i.e. those affecting vaccinated people, most often occur in Western European countries, therefore these infections are milder.

– Meanwhile, in Poland, but also in Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia, the vaccination level is much lower. We will see if this course will also be similar for us. May, but unfortunately it is not certain and guaranteed by the machine. We must be prepared that Omicron may not treat us as gently as other populations. Says a public health specialist.

Will we be immune to the next variants?

The pandemic will either go on for a while in its current form, or it will become endemic (i.e., it will continue to occur, just like the flu). More variants are unlikely to be avoided. Will we be even more resistant and protected against further mutations after we pass the Omicron infection during the fifth wave?

— This is completely unpredictable. So far, all variants have been at least partially coated with the same antibodies. Of course, the best thing was with the Wuhan virus, but in the case of other variants, we could also count on some protection against infection, and certainly against a hard course – says prof. Halyard.

According to the expert, it is not possible to predict what mutations will appear in the formation of the next mutant and whether the next variants will arise.

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– A virus must infect in order to mutate. In African countries, where vaccination rates are only a few percent, we have natural reservoirs of the virus. He can wait in them, mutate and create a new variant. Probably that’s what happened with the Omikron – says prof. Fal, adding that “the danger of a new mutant emerging is possible as long as the virus is circulating”.

He mentions the flu as an example of a disease with a rich history. – We have it all the time, but in the XNUMXth century we already had a dozen or so variants of it, which turned out to be completely different in terms of infectivity and morbidity than the primary flu, if it still exists. After all, we had swine flu, bird flu – he is enumerating.

— We should not become too attached to the concept of herd immunity in the context of the coronavirus, unless we produce it in a controlled and complete manner, i.e. through vaccination – summarizes prof. Andrzej Fal.

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