President Duda on the decline in infections. Expert: I am amazed there is no good advisor

“If the number of cases in Poland has dropped to the level we recorded a year ago, can we really be happy that it is an effect of vaccination, or that this is the time of the year” – President Duda’s recent words aroused controversy. “I am amazed that the head of state does not have a good advisor on the current epidemiological situation” – commented Dr. Aneta Afelt from the COVID-19 Team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences for MedTvoiLokony. The expert explained why such a low number of cases comes from and what really is the role of the season here.

1. Andrzej Duda wondered if the current number of COVID-19 patients is the result of vaccines or summer weather
2. “We didn’t have a vaccine last year and there were the same cases,” said the president
3. Dr. Aneta Afelt explains that by adding up the number of people who are in contact with the virus and vaccinations, the virus does not have much opportunity to explore new contacts
4. The expert notes that the virus is not entirely seasonal – our behavior is seasonal and results from the current weather conditions
5. Dr. Afelt emphasizes that interpersonal behavior is a decisive factor in the spread of the virus
6. More information can be found on the Onet homepage.

President Duda on the number of infections in Poland: the effect of vaccination or that this is the time of the year?

President Andrzej Duda’s words uttered on June 15 during his speech at the GLOBSEC conference in Bratislava caused controversy. Let us recall that the subject of the debate this year is the “Central European road to post-pandemic recovery”. It is not surprising then that in his speech the Polish president said, inter alia, on fighting the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the statement in which President Duda wonders whether the current number of COVID-19 patients is the result of vaccines against the coronavirus or summer weather caused surprise.

– Today we live in the hope that humanity has entered the path of returning to normalcy, that with the advent of vaccines, we are effectively managing this crisis. Although, of course, there is always an open question as to whether it really is – said Duda, adding that the issue was the subject of backstage talks.

– Can we talk about the fact that if the number of cases in Poland has now fallen to the same level as we recorded exactly a year ago, i.e. between 200 and 400 cases each day, can we really be happy that this is the effect of vaccination? or the effect of the fact that we have such and no other weather conditions, this is the time of the year. Last year we did not have a vaccine, and there were the same number of cases – said Andrzej Duda.

1. More on this topic in the service news.TvoiLokony

The expert comments: I am amazed that the president does not have a good advisor on the current epidemiological situation

President Andrzej Duda’s statement was commented for MedTvoiLokona by Dr. Bartosz Fiałek, a specialist in the field of rheumatology, promoter of medical knowledge. – Mr. President is a lawyer, he has no specialist epidemiological knowledge and has the right not to have it – it is understandable to me. In my opinion, his opinion was simply due to a wrong interpretation – says the doctor and emphasizes: – As a citizen of the world, however, I would like people who do not have this knowledge, but hold high positions and influence the opinion of others, to be more restrained in expressing such theses. What President Duda said can now be used by anti-vaccination groups.

1. The entire comment of dr. Bartosz Fiałek for MedTvoiLokona

We also asked Dr. Aneta Afelt from the COVID-19 Team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences for their opinion. – In my opinion, statements that reach public space and are opinion-forming should by necessity be balanced opinions. They should also be based as much as possible on current scientific knowledge – emphasizes the expert and adds: – In the system of many countries in the world, advisory teams are created for the most important people in the country. They consist of people of very different professions – they are made up of representatives of many scientific institutes that follow the latest news from the world of science and present reports on current problems. There is no such institution in Poland.

– If the most important people in the country make public statements, it is good that these statements are documented with the latest, most up-to-date scientific knowledge. In case of an uncertain situation, it is good to underline this, Dr Afelt notes. – I am really amazed that the head of state does not have a good advisor on the current epidemiological situation, who would support the president in this regard in public statements – he admits.

Why the low number of infections in Poland? Dr. Afelt on two main factors

Experts agree that the current infection statistics in Poland are a consequence of many factors and the season also plays a role here. What exactly, Dr. Aneta Afelt explained.

In her opinion, two factors have influenced the current situation to the greatest extent. – First of all, we are after a very large wave of cases, which took place in the fall of last year and in the recent spring. A very large part of the population is therefore exposed to the virus. My colleagues from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling at the University of Warsaw suggest that it may be as much as 55 percent. – explains the scientist. – Adding up the number of people who come into contact with the virus and vaccinations, which include everyone, regardless of whether they were ill or not, it turns out that the virus currently does not have a great opportunity to explore new contacts.

– On the other hand, we are in the spring and summer period. Higher temperature means that our outdoor activity increases, and this naturally translates into greater distance between people. We open windows more often, naturally we keep a greater distance between ourselves, which in turn helps to reduce the risk of infection. So it is not entirely the case that the virus is seasonal in nature, but our behavior is seasonal (and results from the current weather conditions).

The first and most important thing in spreading a virus

In her speech for MedTvoiLokony, Dr. Aneta Afelt reminds of “the first and most important factor in the spread of the virus”. It’s the distance between people. – Therefore, it is impossible not to mention the role of population density in the development of the pandemic. Let’s see what is happening in India or Brazil – places where the population is mainly concentrated in cities and where the population density is one of the highest in the world. This situation translates into a short distance between residents and a large number of contacts that favor the transmission of the virus. Inevitably, in such conditions, the likelihood of meeting a person infected with SARS-CoV-2 increases.

– The conditions we have in Poland are of course not the same as in India or Brazil. Indian cities have even tens of millions of inhabitants, Rio is one of the largest cities in the world, and the capital of Brasilia – also. For comparison – Warsaw has over 2 million, Upper Silesia – around 5 million. These are completely different scales – notes the specialist, adding: – We live relatively comfortably in Europe without being aware of it. Communities living in developing countries have a much lower quality of life and worse health conditions.

– When summing up the social, demographic and economic conditions in Europe and India or Brazil, simple phrases such as “climate matters” in the spread of the virus should be strictly avoided. The decisive factor is interpersonal behavior – emphasizes Dr. Afelt and recalls: – These developing country communities do not in fact bear XNUMX% responsibility for their epidemic situation, one should always take into account sociological and historical conditions.

It is worth noting that the words of Andrzej Duda were referred to at yesterday’s press conference. The president was asked if he personally fully believed in the effectiveness of vaccines. – Of course, I believe one hundred percent in the effectiveness of vaccines because the effects of their action are visible – He said. The president also noted that when talking to experts, “everyone says that this is a mix of certain factors that we are dealing with” in the current epidemic situation.

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3. Warning for recoveries and those vaccinated against COVID-19. Important in summer!

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