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What has become of the book market in our country in 2022? Will it be possible to replace Western non-fiction? What will happen to prices and the book industry as a whole? The expert answered these and other questions
About the expert: Ramil Faskhutdinov, editor-in-chief of the Bombora publishing house.
The main book trend of 2022
Fiction is becoming more and more in demand: the growth of the market for such literature is about 25-30%, while the growth of non-fiction is in the region of 2-4%. So it was in 2020, when the world faced the coronavirus and frightening uncertainty. In difficult conditions, readers do not know what to expect from the future, and simply stop planning for it. Instead, they go into the world of fiction, where there are no worries – the world of fiction.
What has changed since February 2022
The first and key change is the rupture of relations with the largest copyright holders from English-speaking countries. Most people have not yet noticed this blow, because the rights bought earlier are still in effect, but in a year, if the situation does not change, this gap will affect the Russian book market.
The second change is the blocking of Instagram (the social network belongs to Meta Platforms, the Tverskoy Court of Moscow recognized the company as extremist and banned its activities) and the unavailability of TikTok. Both of these platforms were the most important for the promotion of books both in our country and around the world.
The third point is uncertainty. The process of releasing a book is quite long, and when everything is constantly changing, it is difficult to plan something. In addition, some of the books that the publishing house published in 2021 are now hopelessly outdated and are no longer needed by the reader. For example, books about promotion on Instagram, guides to European countries, books on learning European languages are no longer so interesting. Due to the same uncertainty, the birth rate in our country has been falling for the last three years, which is reflected in the sales of books on parenting.
On the other hand, in response to uncertainty, books appear that help to live in such conditions. A surge of interest in entrepreneurial literature is also expected. People will still fill the vacated niches, and they will need books on how to grow their business. But they will already be focused on business in our country, and not on the Western market, as it was before.
Difficulties with foreign copyright holders
In the spring of 2022, publishers took a break. Someone completely stopped cooperation and closed the Russian direction, someone is still working as before, except that he checks whether the author is under sanctions and whether he cooperates with sanctioned objects. Someone “thawed out” after a few months of timeout and continued to cooperate.
Most of the Western copyright holders didn’t stop working with us, except for the big conglomerates who were the key copyright providers. So far, the depth of this problem cannot be assessed. But since the process of producing books is long, we are provided with rights for the next six months or a year.
In the book world, Harry Potter is the strongest franchise. Through the story of the boy who survived, young readers can be attracted. Today they read JK Rowling, and tomorrow adult literature. In addition, a whole universe of merchandise has been created around these books. The most popular cookbook of last year was The Harry Potter Cookbook. Therefore, the departure of Joan Rowling from our market, of course, should be regretted.
It is difficult to replace non-fiction literature, such as books on programming. Silicon Valley is located in the US, and most IT trends originate there. In the business category, no one can replace the memoirs of the heads of Google, Microsoft, Netflix.
The problem of import substitution in this direction is deeper than the lack of companies and experts. Rather, it is a matter of mentality. Unfortunately, in our country, most famous people do not write about themselves – they do not want to reveal the secrets of how they became successful and rich. We offered the owner of Magnit to write a book about his path, the history of the company, the rules of life, but he refused. Perhaps this is the imprint of our culture – not to stick out, not to show that you are better than the rest. For some reason, books by Barack Obama, Bill Gates and other famous people are published in the West – even Justin Bieber has an autobiography at the age of 28. We practically don’t have that.
Until 2020, there were practically no manuscripts from non-fiction authors in the editorial office. In 2020, the pandemic year, we have already published 1-2% of the materials sent. In 2022, we can already talk about a whole stream of manuscripts, of which we send 10% of high-quality works to print.
People understood who they can send their materials to, how to format them correctly and, most importantly, what is interesting for us. Such a correspondence dialogue has formed – at conferences and in the media, we tell what we need, and in return we get relevant work.
10% is a lot. Of course, not as much as in fiction, where the flow of manuscripts is about ten times greater. But, nevertheless, new authors appear – and with them new trends.
What will happen to book prices and the book industry
Most publishers are trying to keep the price tag and not shift the burden that has fallen on us onto the reader. Somewhere we live on old stocks, somewhere we slightly reduce the quality of the goods in order to maintain the price tag and circulation. On average, the price of book production increased by 30–50%, while the price of books only changed by 10–15%. But once stocks and old editions run out, and then prices will have to increase. Most likely, this will happen in the fall or winter of 2022.
Books themselves as a format will not disappear anywhere and will exist regardless of the problems in the world. Moreover, publishers are adjusting the program so that books meet the needs of the audience in times of crisis, help to survive difficulties. More Russian authors will appear, they will be closer and more relevant to the reader. And most importantly, somewhere there is probably a bestseller somewhere that we don’t know about yet. It appears every year and attracts a new stream of readers to bookstores. It will be the same this year.