Omikron is spreading all over Poland. Expert: We have a hard six weeks ahead

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Health Minister Adam Niedzielski confirmed that the fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is already passing through Poland. What can we expect from it? According to forecasts, infections at the level of 100-150 thousand. daily. According to experts, statistics that in no way will reflect such a disastrous epidemic situation. – In Great Britain, to capture 200-300 thousand. infections per day, more than 1 million tests were performed each day. There is no such technical possibility in Poland. We will simply not see this wave – believes prof. dr hab. med. Krzysztof J. Filipiak, cardiologist, clinical pharmacologist, rector of the Medical University of MSC in Warsaw, co-editor of the first Polish textbook on COVID-19.

1. Statystyki nowych zakażeń koronawirusem w Polsce oscylują na poziomie kilkunastu tysięcy dziennie
2. Soon, however, this will change drastically – the Ministry of Health anticipates reporting up to 70. sickness every day. In fact, there may be up to twice as many of them
3. The fifth wave will be different from the previous ones, but the risk remains the same: the health care system may not be able to cope with such a large number of patients
4. – The problem is that even if [Omikron] causes the need for hospitalization twice less often, if, for example, four times more people are infected than during the Delta mutant wave, twice as many patients will go to the hospital – believes prof. Filipiak
5. Could the reality turn out to be more optimistic? According to the expert, there is light at the end of the tunnel
6. More information can be found on the Onet homepage

Omikronowa fala już nadeszła

– The fifth coronavirus wave becomes a reality – powiedział minister zdrowia Adam Niedzielski na poniedziałkowej konferencji prasowej. Jak dodał, «musimy spodziewać się wzrostów zakażeń, a nie spadków, jakie widzieliśmy niedawno».

Szef resortu zdrowia potwierdził tym samym prognozy ekspertów, którzy, obserwując tempo rozprzestrzeniania się na świecie nowego wariantu koronawirusa, od kilku tygodni mówili, że czeka nas nowa fala pandemii, a jej «bohaterem» będzie właśnie Omikron. Szczep ten został wykryty zaledwie dwa miesiące temu i w ekspresowym tempie dotarł na wszystkie kontynenty. Według bazy GISAID, jest już obecny w przynajmniej 118 krajach świata. W wielu wyparł lub wypiera inne warianty, w tym dominującą do tej pory Deltę.

1. Zobacz też: Nie boimy się Omikronu, a… powinniśmy. Wariant nie jest tak łagodny, jak myślimy

W Polsce pierwszy przypadek zakażenia Omikronem wykryto miesiąc temu, dokładnie 16 grudnia 2021 r. Od tamtej pory wariant zidentyfikowano już w ponad 700 próbkach, co sprawia, że zachorowania na COVID-19 spowodowane kontaktem z nowym szczepem stanowią już ponad 18 proc. wszystkich zakażeń.

A tych będzie więcej. Crossing the limit of 20 thousand. falling ill in one day is nothing compared to the forecasts presented by research units observing the development of the pandemic. According to their calculations, in Poland it may actually be up to 150. infections daily, and such a state is expected to last up to several weeks.

The rest of the text is below the video.

Omikron in Poland. Statistics are one thing, reality is another

Słowo «realnie» ma kluczowe znaczenie, bo takich liczb w oficjalnych statystykach prawdopodobnie nie zobaczymy nigdy. Dlaczego? Ponieważ poziom testowania w Polsce wciąż jest bardzo niski.

– Modele mówią nawet o 100-150 tys. zakażeń dziennie, ale skoro w ciągu jednego dnia wykonuje się zaledwie 70 tys. testów, my tej fali po prostu nie zobaczymy – claims prof. dr hab. med. Krzysztof J. Filipiak, adding that in Great Britain, to capture 200-300 thousand. infections per day, more than 1 million tests were performed each day. – There is no such technical possibility in Poland – he says.

Zdaniem profesora początek fali widać już od kilku dni. – To, co pan minister nazywał «anomalią poświąteczną», było już zapewne początkiem pochodu Omikronu w Polsce. The fifth wave is already rising, and various mathematical models indicate that it will peak either in January / February or February, although there are also models that say it will last until March. So we have a hard six weeks ahead of us, with significant spikes in infections.

1. Check: Coronavirus in Poland – statistics for voivodeships [CURRENT DATA]

The fifth wave of the coronavirus – how will it differ from the previous ones?

Omikron “found” us in the fight against another variant of the coronavirus, which caused the outbreak of the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. Delta is still the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 in many countries, including ours, and is responsible for record numbers of cases and deaths.

1. Also read: How is the Omicron infection compared to previous mutations?

Although both variants share a common “ancestor” in the form of the original Wuhan virus, the strains differ significantly. And it’s not just what the symptoms of the infection cause or how infectious and deadly they are. The difference is also in the direction from which they come in Poland. The Delta wave came from the eastern part of the country, from the least vaccinated provinces. The Omicron Wave, według rektora warszawskiej UM MSC, it comes from the south of Poland, and this is clearly indicated by covid reports from the last days.

– Proszę sprawdzić rekordowe wzrosty procentowe zakażeń w powiecie tatrzańskim, a potem w Krakowie i całej Małopolsce. Epidemiologom pozostawiam śledztwo epidemiczne, jakie w każdym normalnym kraju by przeprowadzono, które pokaże nam, dlaczego właśnie stamtąd wychodzi fala omikronowa i jaki ma to związek np. z kilkudziesięciotysięczną imprezą sylwestrową bez maseczek w ramach TVP-owskiego «Sylwestra Zakażeń» – mówi profesor.

1. Zobacz też: COVID-19 nie odpuszcza. W których powiatach jest najwięcej nowych zakażeń?

What, apart from the record-breaking infection statistics, will the fifth wave be different from those caused by other SARS-CoV-2 variants?

Prof. Filipiak does not hide that this is the most difficult question. The experiences of Western European countries, which are slowly “descending” from the Omicron wave, suggest that the variant is not as dangerous as Delta, despite its exceptional contagiousness.

– The problem is that even if it causes the need for hospitalization twice as often, if, for example, four times more people are infected than during the Delta mutant wave, twice as many patients will go to the hospital anyway – points out the expert, adding that the fifth wave begins “on the descending arm” of the previous wave, the victims of which are still hospitalized. This means that the health care system will suffer even greater losses.

1. Who dies most often from COVID-19 in Poland?

W pewnym sensie już ponosi, bo – jak zaznacza profesor – w chwili, gdy odpowiada na nasze pytanie, there are signal ambulances running all the time in the center of Warsaw. – Their sound signals can be heard much more often than a few days ago, which is probably related to reaching the maximum occupancy rate in many Warsaw hospitals and transporting patients to more distant places – explains.

Ale niewydolny system to niejedyny problem naszego kraju. Zdaniem eksperta there is one more element that should worry us and it is impossible to predict what will happen in Poland during the fifth wave.

– The point is that the experiences of other countries – Great Britain, France, Spain – have nothing to do with Polish conditions. Why? Because, unfortunately, jesteśmy krajem słabo wyszczepionym, krajem terroryzowanym przez antyszczepionkowców, krajem, który nie radzi sobie z wprowadzeniem paszportów covidowych, a country where the rulers meet in parliament with anti-vaccines and bless their ideas that derogate from science and reason – points out prof. Filipiak.

1. Also read: From February 1, covid certificates will be valid for a shorter period. How long is your immunization valid? [WE EXPLAIN]

Will the fifth wave be the last?

Is there any chance that the forecast will turn out to be worse than reality?

– The only light in the tunnel for me is, paradoxically, that the omicron wave arrives with a certain delay, just after the XNUMXth wave contamination. Perhaps, then, the cumulative immunity after the infection has just passed, plus a mediocre grafting, will help to slow down the momentum of this wave. – believes the expert.

The immunity we acquire after disease, combined with the protection offered by vaccines, is an increasingly considered scenario in the fight against the coronavirus. Today there are not many countries in the world that can afford to test it. Sweden, which decided on such a strategy at the beginning of the pandemic, paid a high price for it (a large number of deaths, especially among seniors). Israel is considering the introduction of the Swedish model, but this is a country where the COVID-19 vaccination program has been almost exemplary – so far, more than half of Israelis have taken the third dose.

1. Also read: Omicron wave in Israel. “There will be a storm in the days to come.” What’s going on there?

Być może umożliwienie jak największej liczbie osób przejście infekcji, pozwoli im w naturalny sposób wytworzyć przeciwciała. Innych chronić będą szczepienia. Uzyskanie odporności populacyjnej na koronawirusa nie sprawi, że wirus zostanie wyeliminowany, ale liczba nowych zakażeń, a przede wszystkim ciężkich przebiegów COVID-19 i zgonów z powodu infekcji zdecydowanie by spadła.

However, is it possible that the wave of Omicron, which was so abundant in so many infections, would be the last that the pandemic would soon become history?

– Tego nie wiemy. Wydaje się, że COVID-19, z powodu znakomitego wyszczepienia, w części krajów stanie się najpierw chorobą endemiczną, potem pewnie sezonową i zostanie z nami na zawsze. Nie wykluczam, że będzie wymagał sezonowych szczepień, tak jak dziś rekomendujemy szczepienia sezonowe przeciw grypie. Zresztą, część koncernów farmaceutycznych pracuje już nad szczepionką, która będzie jednocześnie szczepionką przeciwgrypową i przeciw COVID-19. Ale zobaczymy. Nadal uczymy się tej pandemii – mówi prof. dr hab. med. Krzysztof J. Filipiak.

1. Przeczytaj też: Kiedy koniec pandemii COVID-19? Eksperci podają konkretne daty

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