Omikron in Poland. What could happen? Dr. Afelt: The script is dramatic

– We have an overburdened health service, the fourth wave is still going on, and the number of deaths is still high. At this point, there is Omikron, Christmas and Christmas and New Year’s travels, including those from the very high-risk zone, says Dr. Aneta Afelt. What can we expect? When will Omikron dominate Poland? And how long can it all go on? – The script is dramatic – the expert assesses. What does this mean exactly?

1. There is no doubt that at the festive table we will “exchange” the Omikron mutation – predicts Dr. Afelt referring to the ongoing Christmas arrivals of Poles to the country
2. We are likely to face another wave of the epidemic. What could it look like? – It’s too early to talk about details. It is clear, however, that since we have not introduced sanitary restrictions on passenger transport to the country, there is no doubt that we will be colonized by this option – says Aneta Afelt
3. – The best solution at this point is to take the third dose – emphasizes the specialist. – In fact, vaccination is the only protection against the coronavirus available at the moment. We should all line up at the vaccination point
4. He says about the behavior in the current epidemic situation: – We need a very responsible personal lockdown. This will actually enable all of us to survive
5. What else is worrying about the new super variant? How long will the pandemic go on? Dr. Afelt spoke in an interview with Medonet
6. More information can be found on the Onet homepage

Monika Mikołajska / Medonet: Omikron is probably already in most countries, we also have it in Poland. We know that it is spreading rapidly around the world, there is talk of an expected “tsunami of infections”. Is the situation really so dangerous?

Dr. Aneta Afelt, COVID-19 Team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences: The world-wide news related to Omicron is frightening. For several reasons. Let’s take a look at what is happening in Great Britain or Denmark – countries where a lot of virus genetic testing and analysis is carried out – where the number of people infected with the coronavirus is growing very quickly. The WHO warns that no current variant of SARS-CoV-2 has spread as fast as Omikron.

So, if the virus spreads faster in the population, if two doses of vaccination prevent infection even less than for Delta, the best solution at this point is to take a third dose. In fact, vaccination is the only protection against the coronavirus available at the moment. We should all line up at the vaccination point: us, our children from five, teenagers, our parents.

All this happens at a time when Poles come to the country for Christmas and the New Year. In large part from Great Britain, where the current number of infections is the highest since the beginning of the pandemic, and the number of detected Omicron cases reaches several thousand. What effect can this have?

Great Britain is the country where the largest percentage of Polish migrants departed and they will traditionally come to their relatives for the Christmas and New Year. Many Poles are also in France, Germany and the Scandinavian countries. All these countries already have Omikron.

1. Will people returning from Great Britain bring Omikron to Poland? Prof. Fal: he will dominate Europe anyway, why help him?

There is therefore no doubt that at the festive table we will “exchange” this mutation. The recent situation in Hong Kong shows how effective this pathogen is. In one of the hotels, people (vaccinated) who did not have direct contact with each other got infected (it was enough to open the door to the rooms at the time of transferring meals – more on this – editor’s note). This means that traveling by plane, train and other public transport is risky.

At the moment, we have several confirmed cases of Omikron in Poland. However, we can only apply them to the test persons. How many people can actually be infected with this mutation. Can it be estimated?

It would be possible if we had a sensible system of genetic analysis of the virus, if we did it multicenter. Meanwhile, our monitoring in this regard is very limited. As a result, we do not supervise the development of the epidemic situation, we can only observe it.

1. Omikron is not impressive? Poles do not want to vaccinate and are not afraid of the virus

Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a specialist in internal medicine, cardiovascular disease and interventional cardiology in the US, says there is a “tsunami” coming for unvaccinated Americans. Meanwhile, we have an even worse vaccinated population (about 57 percent, the USA – over 70 percent). For those who are not vaccinated, not so much an alarm light should turn on, but a loud siren, while the percentage of Poles who are not afraid of getting infected (more about the study).

Unfortunately, that’s the way it is. We researchers who have experience with epidemics continue to call for the same – to trust the scientific facts. Under the present circumstances, we have no tools other than vaccines (and the principles of DDM).

The situation is that we have an overburdened health service, the fourth wave is still going on, albeit a bit lighter, and people who have recently become infected will continue to be admitted to hospitals. Moreover, the number of deaths still remains high. At this point, there is Omikron, Christmas and Christmas / New Year’s travels, including from the very high-risk zone.

Maybe what I say will be perceived as inappropriate, but I think that in such a situation the responsibility for the other person, for the relatives should keep us in our place. The ideal solution would be to self-isolate and wait for the third dose of vaccination under safe conditions, and then continue this self-isolation for the minimum 12 days – when immunity is built up.

But is it real? We have Christmas and New Years time, the most social time of the year

It is good to continue the tradition of meeting on Christmas and other occasions important to us, but it must be done in a safe environment, without putting anyone at risk. In my opinion, giving up physical presence in favor of the electronic one is more than reasonable in the current situation. I am staying in France this Christmas, my family in Poland has also decided to self-isolate during this period. It’s not worth the risk.

1. Doctor’s call: everyone should take a test before going to their family for Christmas

I’m not just saying this in the context of Christmas. Let us remember that there are people among us who cannot switch to remote work or withdraw from the labor market for a while. In caring for these people, for their health and comfort of life, those who can, should withdraw their activity from public space. In a word, we need a very responsible personal lockdown. This will actually enable all of us to survive.

We must not forget that an infection with Omicron can have far-reaching consequences. And it is not only about the risk of our loved ones dying, it is also about ourselves, our children and their future. We are not yet able to say who is at greater risk of the long-term effects of COVID-19. We need more data for that. This takes time. At least three to five years of regular research. However, the findings so far say that a minimum of 30 percent. people who have had SARS-CoV-2 infections have the so-called long covid.

And when it comes to the number of infections in this next expected wave – do we already know how many there may be?

At the moment, it is very difficult to predict anything, although the first try-ons are already available – the team of Dr. Eng. Franciszek Rakowski. However, it is too early to talk about concrete results. We must closely monitor what is happening in Britain and elsewhere. It is clear, however, that since we have not introduced sanitary restrictions on passenger transport to the country, there is no doubt that we will be colonized by this variant.

However, I sincerely hope that the fact that the contact with Delta was so massive in the fourth wave will, to some extent, protect us from the Omicron. Unfortunately, the script is dramatic anyway. Even if this variant will cause less severe health effects, even if there will be fewer hospitalizations and less need for ventilators, a large number of infections in a short time will result in a huge accumulation of diseases and, as a result, an even greater burden on healthcare.

We have already said that Omikron is spreading the fastest of all variants to date. Is it possible to predict when it will dominate Delta in our country? ECDC estimates that this may happen in Europe in early 2022.

It may be a very similar time with us. And this is what the holidays, the New Year period and the accompanying increased trips to the country will contribute to. The more that the visits do not last several days, but usually several weeks. The period of Omicron’s spread may be shifted by about two weeks in relation to the country from which we come to Poland, but in general it will be almost synchronous. It all shows that we are really in a difficult moment.

1. How to protect yourself from Omicron? PAN expert councils

Last year, three weeks after Christmas, we had a small mountain of infections, now it could be a big mountain. Let’s also not forget that the spring wave was the aftermath of Christmas meetings at the table. This year it may be the same.

This is not the end of the fears. Scientists are concerned about possible local mutations of the coronavirus. How can all of this turn out?

We must be aware that new variants of this pathogen appear constantly. This is perfectly normal. Of course, not all of them are problematic for us, not all of them are more contagious. The question is, how many variants and their properties we do not know, because we have not come across them yet? There is a high probability that other variants appear in parallel somewhere in the world, and it is possible that one of them will be comparable to the Omicron’s success, or even more. It is all a matter of probability and chance at the same time.

Scientists are asking themselves what will happen if Omikron actually escapes the vaccines. Former executive director of the European Medicines Agency, Guido Rasi, says it will be a B pandemic.

The contagiousness of the Omicron is starting to reach dangerously close to levels typical of measles – the most contagious virus known. We also know that the third dose of the COVID-19 preparation protects against serious illness very well. The scenario in which we take the vaccine jointly and severally every six months, living normally, for me personally, is absolutely acceptable.

So the key question arises: how long will all this go on? How long will the pandemic continue to hold us back? Unfortunately, the end is still not in sight.

It is obvious that the coronavirus will stay with us and that it will change. The question is in which directions this change will take place at the local level – because it is here that the strains important for the pandemic appear, and then spread around the world.

So the question is, will the coronavirus go in the direction of bypassing the vaccines, will it try to bypass the drug, or maybe both at once? Or maybe its evolution will make it more recognizable for our immune system? Perhaps it will also evolve to death. Although the latter is unlikely, because the virus is already present everywhere, and this creates perfect conditions for its evolution. And even if it goes extinct in one region, it is likely that a more effective form will emerge in another.

You may be interested in:

1. Omicron also threatens healers. Dr. Szułdrzyński: the contagiousness is such that everyone will catch it
2. Omicron “goes crazy in the world”. What about Christmas? Experts tell you what to do
3. A doctor from a covid hospital talks about the most difficult cases. “Young, unvaccinated are dying”

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