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The new variant of the coronavirus, Omikron, has been shown to be very contagious, but is in most cases milder than its predecessors. This gives hope that we are getting closer to the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Are you sure? Here are four scenarios for the continuation of its story, about which more and more are being talked about in scientific circles.
- One scenario is that COVID-19 will follow the measles pathway – disease or vaccination will guarantee permanent immunity
- Among the more likely visions, SARS-CoV-2 is associated with viruses that cause the strains of influenza that are responsible for severe illness. The new variants then escape the immune response and may trigger seasonal epidemics
- However, scientists cool down emotions and recommend not to get attached to any scenarios, because the coronavirus is so unpredictable that it is difficult to guess what its evolution will look like.
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
Scenario 1: Promising but rather unreal
Among the scenarios considered is one that says that COVID-19 will “follow” the measles pathway. This means that the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection will no longer be a threat to people who have contracted COVID-19 or have been vaccinated against it. Moreover, an infection or vaccination would offer lifelong protection. Newborns and infants who have not yet been vaccinated and, of course, all those who have not had COVID-19 and have not taken the vaccine against the disease, would be primarily at risk of contracting coronavirus. This scenario gives hope, but it is believed that there is little chance of its implementation.
- See also: Prof. Fal: Don’t get too attached to the concept of herd immunity in the context of the coronavirus
Scenario 2: quite promising and more likely
The second scenario is related to the RSV virus ( respiratory syncytial virus – respiratory syncytial virus), which we associate with young children for a reason. This pathogen is one of the most common microbes that affect their respiratory tract. Most often it causes a mild or moderate course, but it is particularly dangerous for the youngest children, under 2 years of age, and is considered the main cause of hospitalization of newborns and infants. According to scientists, SARS-CoV-2 may become similar to RSV and be a real threat to this age group.
- Will this virus cause another pandemic? Chinese scientists are concerned
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Scenario 3: disturbing and possible
Another vision of how SARS-CoV-2 could evolve links it to the virus that causes influenza B. This type of influenza virus, like type A, can cause epidemics, but this is less common. This is due to the fact that influenza B virus it changes more slowly than type A – it is ruled by the antigenic shift mechanism, i.e. point mutations that occur during the replication of the virus. According to experts, if the coronavirus causing COVID-19 follows its path, the rate of genetic changes in the pathogen will be slightly slower, and transmission will be mainly the responsibility of childrenwhose immune systems are not yet as functional as adults.
- Check: What awaits us after Omicron? Scientists about possible “surprises”
Scenario 4: alarming and very likely
The fourth scenario of what awaits us after Omicron is that the coronavirus “chooses” the path of influenza A virus. It is a strain responsible for the severity of the flu, capable of causing an epidemic (and “using” this ability regularly) or even a pandemic. This is because this virus is subject to the so-called antigenic jumps, consisting in the replacement of the entire fragment or even several fragments of RNA, e.g. the structure of the protein envelope. As a result, the immune system is unable to recognize the virus, even though it has already been in contact with it from a previous infection or vaccination. The new variants will elude the immune response and trigger seasonal epidemics. The virus would then be spread mainly by adults, who would often be severely affected. Importantly, vaccination against COVID-19, as well as protecting against a new mutation in the flu virus, would reduce the risk.
- Also read: Will we be facing another pandemic?
Scientific glass ball
Despite numerous scientific theories about the end of the pandemic and the possible paths that the SARS-CoV-2 virus will “choose”, experts agree on one thing: it is impossible to determine with certainty and unequivocally what will happen next. Some people go even further, calling such predictions fortune-telling on coffee grounds or a glass ball.
So at this point we can only guess. I have tried several times to predict how the pandemic would turn out and in many cases I was wrong, as indeed many of my colleagues. We have more perfect historians in the world than prophets. It’s easier to look back than to the future. Over time, it will be easier, we will learn more about this virus, its dynamics of infection, and thus the modeling will be better, more accurate. This was the case with the fluwhich we have been monitoring since 1996, and yet sometimes we are not able to predict what the seasonal variety will look like in a given year. And yet, in the case of SARS-CoV-2, we only have two years of data
– said Dr. Emilia C. Skirmuntt, an evolutionary virologist from the University of Oxford, in an interview with Medonet.
According to the researcher, the scenario assuming that SARS-CoV-2 will become similar to the influenza virus is realistic. However, Dr. Skirmuntt cautions against labeling the coronavirus too quickly with the label “endemic”.
– Influenza is endemic, and people continue to get sick and die, and suffer from complications for years, because the flu virus can damage various organs, so you have to take medication for the rest of your life. COVID-19 may stay with us in a similar capacity. An endemic virus is not one that we just live with and we may not care about it. Endemic viruses are under constant surveillance and countless scientists around the world are constantly involved in monitoring, researching and protecting them against them. It’s not that when we label a virus “endemic”, we can forget about it, he explains.
- Also read: COVID-19 and the flu at the same time? It is possible. Doctor: disastrous consequences
Prof. dr hab. Krzysztof Pyrć, head of the Laboratory of Virology at the Małopolska Center of Biotechnology of the Jagiellonian University, drew attention to the fact that even if the pandemic is over, it does not mean that SARS-CoV-2 will go away.
The end of the pandemic does not absolutely mean that the virus will disappear. The virus will stay with us. It will cease to be a social problem, so the pandemic will de facto end, but that does not mean that people will stop dying. COVID-19 will remain a medical problem and vaccines and drugs will continue to be essential
– he pointed out, adding that one should be vigilant all the time, because the virus is mutating and new variants surprise even scientists.
Every big wave increases the risk of new virus variants emerging, and the current wave is gigantic. So let us not treat this announced ending as an absolute, because we have already counted once again that the end would come after the wave – this was the case with Delta. Unfortunately, a new variant has emerged that has delayed this turn of events. However, the recovery scenario is still on the table – assures the professor.
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