Niedzielski: Poland has 50 percent. population resistance. Is it possible? [WE CHECK]

Last week, Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said that Poland is around 50 percent. population resistance to the coronavirus. However, optimistic words raise some doubts. First of all, because there are no specific data to confirm them.

1. In Poland, the fight against the coronavirus has been ongoing for over a year. The national vaccination program has been running since December 2020
2. We currently have 3 million 671 thousand. 671 people fully vaccinated and 2. 576 convalescents
3. It is 6 million 247 thousand. 705 people out of over 38 million inhabitants of Poland (GUS data for 2020)
4. More current information can be found on the Onet homepage.

Minister of Health on Population Resistance. «About 50%»

Last week, Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said on TVP Bydgoszcz that herd immunity in Poland is currently at the level of approximately 50 percent.

– We are around 50% population immunity and I think that within two months we will achieve the goal set by Prime Minister Morawiecki, i.e. 20 million vaccinated people – said Adam Niedzielski on the station’s air.

The data seem very optimistic, especially as the topic of herd immunity, which is supposed to be a natural barrier against the coronavirus, is coming back like a boomerang. If it had actually been achieved, we would probably have overcome the pandemic.

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The problem is that the information presented by Minister Niedzielski may raise some justified doubts. 50 percent 38 million people out of the 19 million population of Poland. So why the suggestion that these 19 million could be resistant to COVID-19?

During the Monday press conference of Minister Michał Dworczyk, the editors of MedTvoiLokony asked about the process of acquiring herd immunity in Poland and how many Poles are already immune to COVID-19.

Min. Dworczyk did not provide a specific number, nor did he indicate the estimated date when Polish society will manage to exceed the threshold of 50 or 70 percent. resistant people.

– We emphasize from the beginning of the implementation of the National Immunization Program that we do not set ourselves the goal of vaccinating 60 or 70 percent. Poles, because vaccinations in Poland are voluntary. Our goal is to vaccinate as many Poles as possible. However, it is difficult to set such precise goals, taking into account so many influencing variables – explained the government plenipotentiary for the National Vaccination Program.

Anna Goławska, Undersecretary of State in the Ministry of Health, also commented on the level of population immunity during the same conference. At the same time, however, we also heard that the National Institute of Hygiene does not test every convalescent, so it does not know exactly how many people are immune. It was also announced that when the research is completed, it will be made public.

– Such research is carried out, among others, by the National Institute of Hygiene and carried out on an ongoing basis. Since we do not test every survivor for antibodies, these tests are done on a sample basis. As soon as we know the final results and analyzes, we will publish them to the public – explained Goławska.

Population resistance and research that does not exist yet

The Ministry of Health confirmed the information provided by Minister Dworczyk.

– Data based on partial results from the Obser-Co study. Research is still ongoing. After the end of the 1st round, they will be published – we read in the answer given to Medonet.

The aim of the National Seroepidemiological Study COVID-19: OBSER-CO is to determine the percentage of the population that has been infected with SARS-COV-2 and what percentage of cases is diagnosed and registered. «Proper assessment of the actual number of people immunized against SARS-CoV-2 will help to more accurately predict the spikes in the disease (so-called epidemic waves) after periods of temporary reduction of restrictions. Thanks to this, it will be possible to correctly assess the epidemiological situation, and thus take appropriate anti-epidemic measures necessary to control the epidemic »- we read on the PZH website. The first phase of the study was to be carried out in March 2021, but so far no data has been made available. The entire process is not expected to end until 2022.

– We are constantly conducting research on the so-called seroprevalence, i.e. how many people in our society already have antibodies and have simply developed natural immunity – explained Minister Niedzielski in an interview with TVP Bydgoszcz. – We are conducting this research on larger and larger samples and they are slowly becoming representative. At the moment, the parameters as we know them are nearly half of people who have antibodies. Of course, this group includes the vaccinated and sick people.

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There are still more questions than answers regarding population resilience in Poland. First: how is it determined that “nearly half of the people” have antibodies when not all samples are tested? Secondly, if there are approx. 38 million people in Poland, and there are only slightly more than 6 million vaccinated and convalescent people, where does the data about 50 percent come from?

The durability of the antibodies themselves is a separate issue. Research shows that convalescents are only protected against COVID-19 for a limited time. Moreover, the vaccines themselves also do not guarantee 100%. resistance to coronavirus infection. In addition, almost 20 percent. of Polish society are people under 18 years of age who cannot be vaccinated. This means that they can be carriers of the virus – also asymptomatic.

In order to fully verify the words of Minister Niedzielski, we must first of all wait for the results of the PZH research. These, however, may still not be decisive, because they will only apply to the here and now. Over time, immunity among recovering and vaccinated individuals will decline. Pfizer is already suggesting that vaccinations with their preparation will have to be repeated to remain protected against COVID-19. Some experts say outright that there is no point in putting any hope in natural herd immunity.

– I have said many times that it is between 70 and 85%, but we do not know for sure. So, rather than fixate on it, we should rather say: vaccinate as many people as possible as soon as possible. People are being given more than 2 million doses every day, so we’re getting closer to controlling this pandemic, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, Joe Biden’s health adviser.

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