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The more infectious variant of the Delta coronavirus dominates in Poland, with more and more infected people each week. Where are we really at the point of the COVID-19 pandemic? This is evidenced by the data on the R indicator, which the editors of MedTvoiLokony received from the Ministry of Health.
- The R indicator tells how many more people can be infected by one sick person
- This is one of the elements of the assessment of the epidemiological situation in a given country
- According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, the R index for Poland is 1,13. This means the epidemic is growing
- Among the voivodships, the highest R index have: Podlaskie, Opolskie and Świętokrzyskie
- More current information can be found on the Onet homepage.
In June, one of the lowest R indicators for Poland. Today it is no longer optimistic
At the end of June, we had reasons to be optimistic. At that time, the R index was one of the lowest since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland and amounted to 0,73 (data as of June 25). Let’s recall what that meant.
The R index (or virus reproduction rate, RO) is one of the elements used to assess the epidemiological situation in a given country. Thanks to it, we know how many healthy people can be infected by one person infected with the coronavirus. If the R is above one, we know that the epidemic is growing. In the event that the RO is less than one, we can assume that the epidemic is dying out and fewer and fewer people become infected from each other.
While in June we might have thought that we had mastered the pathogen, the subsequent R data was not so optimistic. «Stabilization of infections is a thing of the past. Compared to the previous week, we already have 13 percent. increase in the average number of infections. In the following weeks we will observe further increases, as evidenced by the change in the virus reproduction rate (R), which again reached the value of 1 »- on July 19, Minister of Health Adam Niedzielski wrote on Twitter. Unfortunately, his predictions are correct.
The latest R index for Poland. Which provinces is the worst?
Infection statistics currently hover around 200 cases a day. It seems that it is not much, but when we compare the weekly number of new cases, it is clear that with each subsequent one there is about 20 percent. more.
It is known that over 90 percent. Coronavirus Delta variant corresponds to new cases – a mutation that spreads more easily, multiplies faster, infects more people (it is estimated that one person infected with Delta infects five to eight more, for the British / Alpha variant it was three to five people ).
This situation is reflected by the R indicator. According to the data provided by the Ministry Health, currently the reproduction rate of the virus in Poland is 1,13. The epidemic is gaining momentum again. In which provinces the most? Here are the latest data from the Ministry of Health:
| Province | R indicator |
|---|---|
| Podlaskie | 1,34 |
| Opole | 1,30 |
| swietokrzyskie | 1,28 |
| Lubusz | 1,27 |
| Greater Poland | 1,23 |
| West | 1,16 |
| Mazowieckie | 1,15 |
| Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship | 1,13 |
| Lodz | 1,12 |
| Lower Silesia | 1,12 |
| Pomeranian | 1,11 |
| Podkarpackie Province | 1,10 |
| Silesian | 1,07 |
| Lubelsky | 1,07 |
| Lesser | 1,04 |
| Warmia-Mazury | 1,02 |
| POLAND | 1,13 |
«It is very late and vaccinations must be hurriedly»
Experts and politicians continue to emphasize that the infection is favored by an insufficient percentage of people vaccinated against COVID-19 (currently 48 percent of Poles are after a full vaccination course – ourworldindata.org data is valid as of August 15). Increasing this value to 80 percent. would significantly improve the situation – the national consultant in the field of epidemiology, Prof. Iwona Paradowska-Stankiewicz.
One cannot fail to mention the still falling rate of vaccination. – Unfortunately, it is already very late and you have to hurry up with vaccinations. Therefore, it is necessary to appeal not only for the attendance, but also the rate of vaccinations. The pace should be much faster – said the president of Warsaw Family Physicians, Dr. Michał Sutkowski a few days ago, referring to the upcoming next wave of the epidemic.
– The fourth wave is already knocking on our borders – the deputy head of the Ministry of Health, Waldemar Kraska, recently warned at RMF FM. – It is a matter of the next few weeks, when there will be definitely more new cases.
In his opinion, while the number of infected will not increase rapidly in the next two weeks, when Poles return from holidays and children go to school, there may be much more of them.
Do you want to test your COVID-19 immunity after vaccination? Have you been infected and want to check your antibody levels? See the COVID-19 immunity test package, which you will perform at Diagnostics network points.
According to Dr. Sutkowski, the peak of the fourth wave will take place in October. – I expect from several to several thousand infections a day – he said directly.
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