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The number of coronavirus infections is decreasing, we can again use restaurants, gyms and swimming pools. Does this mean that COVID-19 in Poland is releasing? What stage of the epidemic are we at? We will be told about this by the latest data on the R index, which has been made available to us by the Ministry of Health. Let’s also see how R shapes in our neighbors and how we fare against them.
- The R (RO) indicator tells you at what stage the epidemic is. If it is greater than 1, the epidemic is still developing
- According to data from the Ministry of Health, as of May 29, RO for Poland was 0,654
- In none of the voivodships the RO was 1. The only voivodship where it exceeded 0,7 is Podlaskie
- When comparing the RO of our neighbors, we come across very well – we present the details in the article
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage.
Recall that the R indicator, also known as the virus reproduction rate (RO), tells us at what stage the epidemic is. In simple terms, it can be said that it shows what is contagious – that is, how many people can be infected by one person infected with SARS-CoV-2 and diagnosed with COVID-19.
If the R index is greater than 1, it means that one patient infects more than one person. In this case, it can be said that the epidemic is still developing. If the RO value is less than 1, we can believe that the epidemic is dying out and fewer and fewer people become infected from each other.
According to data that Medonet received from the Ministry of Health, the reproduction rate of the virus as of May 29 for the entire country was 0,654. It means that one sick person infects less than one healthy person (on average it is 0,65 people). To use another comparison, 100 COVID-19 patients infect about 65 healthy people.
Moreover, a month ago the RO indicator was at the level of 0,72 and, as Minister Niedzielski emphasized, it was “the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic”. Today, as you can see, the situation is even better. The current R index is the lowest among all those reported since the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic in Poland.
R indicator for voivodships – where is the worst, where is the best?
The Ministry of Health also provided us with information on the shape of the R index in individual provinces. It is not equal to 1 in any of them, and none has come close to that value. The only voivodeship where RO exceeded 0,7 is Podlaskie – here the R index is at the level of 0,717. The Zachodniopomorskie voivodship was in second place – RO at the level of 0,699. The third place is in Warmia and Mazury – RO was 0,685 there.
The situation in all voivodships is presented in the table below.
| Province | Rt |
|---|---|
| province. Lower Silesia | 0,632 |
| voiv. Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship | 0,596 |
| voiv. Lublin | 0,679 |
| voiv. lubuskie | 0,601 |
| voiv. Lodzkie | 0,661 |
| voiv. Lesser Poland | 0,656 |
| voiv. Masovian Voivodeship | 0,655 |
| voiv. Opole Province | 0,661 |
| voiv. Podkarpackie Province | 0,636 |
| voiv. Podlasie | 0,717 |
| province. Pomeranian | 0,591 |
| voiv. Silesian | 0,645 |
| voiv. Świętokrzyskie Province | 0,669 |
| voiv. Warmia-Masuria Province | 0,685 |
| voiv. Greater Poland | 0,679 |
| voiv. West Pomeranian | 0,699 |
| POLAND | 0,654 |
Source: Ministry of Health
COVID-19 in Europe. R indicator for Poland’s neighbors. How do we fall out?
The number of infections in Europe is falling (week to week situation is shown in the graphic below). Like Poland, other European countries are also loosening sanitary restrictions. Most of the food gardens and cultural establishments operate – although there are places limits and other precautions are taken.
Source: covid19.who.int
Let’s see how our neighbors’ R index is currently doing and how we compare with them. Let us only add that according to globalrt.live data, RO for Poland as of May 29 differs slightly from the data of the Ministry of Health and is estimated at approx. 0,45 – this value is included in the chart presented below (it is worth noting that globalrt.live estimates the value of RO based on the growth rate of the number of infected individuals; the website uses data collected by the John Hopkins CSSE team).
RO for Germany. As of May 29, RO was at the level of 0,67. So far, over 19 million people have fallen ill with COVID-3,6 in Germany, and over 89 have died.
RO for the Czech Republic. As of May 29, RO there was 0,60. So far, over 1,6 million Czechs have been infected with the coronavirus, more than 30 have died.
RO for Slovakia. As of May 29, RO was at the level of 0,57. In Slovakia, inhabited by less than 5,5 million people, almost 19 fell ill with COVID-390. people, over 12 thousand died.
RO for Ukraine as of May 29, the R ratio was 0,67. In Ukraine, inhabited by over 44 million people, more than 2 million people became infected with SARS-CoV-2,2, about 50,7 thousand died.
RO for Our Country as of May 28 (latest data) it was 1,02. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, more than 19 million people have fallen ill with COVID-5 – this puts Our Country in second place in Europe (after France) in terms of the overall number of infections. The number of deaths due to and with the participation of SARS-CoV-2 was over 121,5 – according to worldometers.info data it is the third place among European countries.
RO for Belarus. On May 11, Belarus’s Minister of Health, Dzmitry Piniewicz, admitted that the country was experiencing the peak of the third wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. On that day, the R index was 1,07. Currently, it is less than one, 0,93 to be exact (data for May 29). According to official data, over 9,4 people fell ill with COVID-19 in Belarus (inhabited by over 394 million people). people, more than 2,8 thousand died.
RO for Lithuania. In Lithuania, inhabited by less than 3 million people, the RO as of May 29 was 0,96. To date, over 19 have fallen ill with COVID-274 in this country. people, more than 4,2 thousand died.
How do we compare with our neighbors in terms of R? Details are shown in the chart below.
Source: globalrt.live
As you can see, according to globalrt.live estimates, we have the best R indicator among the countries listed. At this point, it is worth recalling the recent words of the president of Warsaw Family Physicians, Dr. Michał Sutkowski, who commented on the next stage of easing the restrictions related to the pandemic, said: – The pandemic situation in Poland is good, the number of new coronavirus infections is falling, but unfortunately it is easy to spoil it. Remember that a lot depends on our behavior.
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