The coronavirus may have spread earlier than previously thought, according to a model created by researchers at the University of Kent (UK). COVID-19 has already infected 181 million people worldwide and killed over 3,9 million.
- Researchers believe COVID-19 may have attacked Chinese residents as early as October 2019.
- Officially, the first case was found on December 1
- The new test method calculates the probability of previous virus transmissions
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There is one interesting conclusion from the new model. COVID-19 could attack Chinese residents as early as October or November 2019. “Earlier transmission is the most likely scenario based on international data,” believes a team led by David Roberts of the University of Kent in the UK.
COVID-19 attacked earlier
Epidemiologists used the so-called model of optimal linear estimation. It is widely used in natural sciences, including to determine the time of extinction of plant and animal species. However, the same modeling techniques are used in other fields of science, such as archeology and physics.
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The team used the available data on the development of the coronavirus to determine the onset of the pandemic based on the number of cases. Modeling suggests COVID-19 appeared in China well before December 2019, with the first case most likely occurring 17 November. At the same time, the team suggests that it may have already happened 4 October.
According to research, after the outbreak of the pandemic, the coronavirus initially attacked Asian countries, gradually spreading around the globe. First, it went to Japan (January 3, 2020), then to Thailand (January 7), Spain (January 12), South Korea (January 14) and the United States (January 16). These dates are slightly earlier than the first officially confirmed cases.
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This kind of modeling not only gives an approximate starting date of the pandemic, but also other valuable conclusions. Discovering how we could find and track the first cases of new diseases is extremely important in preventing further potential epidemics, emphasize the authors of the study. And yet there are other variants – including the Delta variant. According to recent reports, it can lead to hearing loss or deterioration.
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Of course, this method of modeling also has its drawbacks and limitations. They are mainly related to the publication and transmission of reliable data. The model is based on official national infection data. This means that the quality of the analysis could have been influenced by the reporting methods or the quality of the SARS-CoV-2 tests that were used.
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