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The issue of building natural population immunity as a tool in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic is coming back like a boomerang, still arousing a lot of excitement. Scientists from the COVID-19 Team at the Polish Academy of Sciences joined the discussion. In their opinion, considering such a strategy is a “dangerous mistake” and trying to implement it will be “dire costs”. Why? We explain.
- The strategy of building natural herd immunity assumes an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infections in a larger group of people at low risk, while protecting people at high risk.
- Team for COVID-19 at the Polish Academy of Sciences: implementing the strategy of building natural herd immunity is scientifically unjustified and dangerous
- Scientists: getting COVID-19 will not give us herd immunity – “people who catch the infection will continue to transmit the virus, all sacrifices and victims will be wasted”
- More information can be found on the TvoiLokony home page
What is herd immunity and what is the herd immunity threshold?
To begin with, let’s explain the basic concepts: what exactly is natural herd immunity and what we mean by “herd immunity threshold”.
Group immunity, also known as population immunity, group immunity, is a state in which non-immune people are protected because the majority of society has already produced antibodies. This is possible thanks to the vaccination of as many people as possible or – and this is crucial in the concept of natural herd immunity – due to the fact that a large group of people underwent a given disease, in this case COVID-19. In other words, thanks to the presence of immunized people in a given population, the risk of developing a given disease is significantly reduced among non-immunized people.
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The strategy of building natural herd immunity assumes an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infections in a larger group of people at low risk, while protecting people at high risk.
How many people must be infected and acquire immunity to be able to speak of natural population immunity? This question is answered by the herd immunity threshold – it is the percentage of immunized people in the entire population, which causes the number of new cases to decline. The amount of the herd immunity threshold depends on the disease in question. Most often, however, a minimum of 90-95 percent is needed. resilient people in society.
“Over 22 million people in Poland would be infected in a few months”
Experts have emphasized for a long time that waiting for the development of natural herd immunity is not an acceptable solution – it takes too long and involves too many victims. Nevertheless, the topic keeps coming back.
“Fatigue from the fight against the COVID-19 epidemic, both on an individual and social level, is already enormous, and undoubtedly, achieving herd immunity quickly seems to be an attractive goal” – noted scientists from the COVID-19 Team at the Polish Academy of Sciences.
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However, as they emphasize it is scientifically unjustified and dangerous to implement the strategy of building natural herd immunity. «At the moment, considering the strategy of natural herd resilience» it is a dangerous logical fallacy without scientific evidence, «- they emphasize. Could the implementation of this idea be finished?
For the extinction of an epidemic to become a reality, the threshold of herd immunity must be 50-70%. However, scientists from the Polish Academy of Sciences are asking a fundamental question: can the virus be allowed to spread freely, and after reaching the immunity threshold of about 60 percent? population, happily return to normal life?
The answer is provided by the figures quoted by scientists. “In such a scenario, over 22 million people in Poland would become infected within a few months” – they write.
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Many older people will not survive this
If the virus spreads freely in the elderly population, many will not survive – warn scientists from the COVID-19 Team at the Polish Academy of Sciences.
As proof, they cite data on the clinical course of COVID-19 in Poland. It turns out that even among people under 40, from 0,4 to 4,7 percent. required hospitalization for at least 10 days, and this percentage increased to 6,1 – 36,4 percent. among seniors aged 80 and more. Among people under 40, deaths due to COVID-19 are sporadic, but in the 60-80 age group up to 2.1%, and over 80 up to 8%. infected.
Separating people over the age of 60 would theoretically allow them to achieve herd immunity without enormous health consequences. The matter is not that simple, however, for several reasons.
Even if only young people become infected, that means up to a million hospitalized within a few months. As scientists emphasize, this significantly exceeds the current capabilities of the health care system. Moreover, in such a situation, not only the life and health of COVID-19 patients will be at risk. There will be more victims of the epidemic, such as people with chronic diseases or those requiring urgent medical intervention, who will have problems obtaining appropriate care.
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Another point. For the strategy of achieving herd resilience to be successful, the pace of epidemic development among younger people should be slowed down anyway (through distance, wearing masks, possible closing schools or workplaces). It is estimated that the period of balancing between increasing and decreasing the restrictions would last from 7 to 12 months. All this time, the elderly would have to remain isolated, not see their children and grandchildren, Polish scientists note.
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However, the costs will be much higher. Isolation also means no medical care, no help with daily duties, cutting off the world of people excluded from the world of digital messaging. It is also a very large number of deaths due to the neglect of chronic diseases or simply the lack of access to treatment and drugs, warn scientists of the Polish Academy of Sciences.
Natural herd immunity to win against COVID-19? Not necessarily
Even if (hypothetically assuming) we decide to incur such severe social costs, achieve the required resistance threshold and win the fight against the epidemic, it will probably not be the result we all would like.
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The durability of the naturally acquired resistance to SARS-CoV-2 is still unclear. It is known that the level of protective antibodies drops over time. “So it cannot be ruled out that some of the people who underwent the disease in spring may now become infected again” – emphasize the researchers. And this hypothesis seems to be confirmed by reports of re-infections with coronavirus. Although subsequent infections are likely to be milder, COVID-19 disease will not provide us with herd immunity – “people who contract the infection will continue to transmit the virus, all sacrifices and sacrifices will be wasted” – write scholars.
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Another unknown is the long-term effects of COVID-19. “Recent reports indicate that some people, including young people, develop a post-covid syndrome that can significantly affect their social and professional functioning and leave a permanent scar on our society” – they emphasize.
The conclusion of scientists from the COVID-19 Team at the Polish Academy of Sciences is one: at the moment considering the strategy of natural herd immunity “it is a dangerous logical error not supported by scientific evidence”.
So why is using a vaccine to build herd immunity changing the situation? “When vaccinating, we can give booster doses without risk to the vaccinated person, we can train our immune system to retain the SARS-CoV-2 pattern for a long time,” the researchers explain.
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«Therefore, we would like to strongly emphasize that the current discussions should abandon the idea of natural immunization and look to the future, focusing on the principles of vaccination against COVID-19, prioritization and logistics to carry out this action on a massive scale, including taking into account the comprehensive international demographic situation »- we read in the document published on the website of the Polish Academy of Sciences.
At the moment, the best we can do is strictly keep social distance (at least 1,5 m), wear masks correctly, take care of hygiene (especially wash your hands with warm soapy water), avoid crowds and being with strangers in closed rooms.
The position of scientists from the Polish Academy of Sciences presented above coincides with the opinion of other scientists. In mid-October, the Lancet published an open letter signed by 80 researchers (as at the date of publication) from Great Britain, USA, Australia, France, Germany and Switzerland. In the document, they warn that building natural herd immunity has no scientific basis and may have very dangerous consequences.
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