Contents
The UK has seen the greatest number of cases of monkey pox in recent days. Local specialists believe that the increase in the incidence is a result of the end of vaccination against smallpox over 40 years ago. The smallpox vaccine also provides great protection against monkey pox.
- Monkey pox has already appeared – apart from Africa – in more than 20 countries around the world. The largest number of cases was recorded in Great Britain – over 70
- The Guardian collected the opinions of specialists on the causes of the increase in the disease and the possible scenario of events
- In their opinion, the latest cases were caused by the cessation of the smallpox vaccination in 1980.
- Our level of immunity is almost zero, says researcher and epidemiologist Dr. Romulus Breban
- More current information can be found on the Onet homepage.
Monkey pox – most cases in the UK
The UK Health Safety Agency said Tuesday of a further 14 cases of monkey pox in England. This makes a total of 70 cases, plus one in Scotland. No cases of the disease have yet been reported in Wales or Northern Ireland.
In most countries, routine vaccinations against smallpox ended around 1980. It was then that the World Health Organization announced that the disease was eliminated. Since this preparation also protects against monkey pox, vaccination has also kept the disease in check, especially in central and western Africa, regions where the virus is endemic.
In the decades since the end of the smallpox vaccination, the percentage of people protected against smallpox has dropped significantly. This allowed the virus to spread more easily from animals to humans and from person to person, increasing the risk of a serious epidemic.
We have zero immunity
“This epidemic was just waiting to emerge,” says Dr. Romulus Breban, a scientist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris. Mathematical modeling by Breban and his team in 2020 showed that in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, herd immunity to monkey pox decreased from 85%. in the early 80s up to 60 percent. in 2012, “This is a serious threat to health security,” wrote Breban at the time. In 2020, over 4 jobs were found in the DRC. suspected disease and at least 171 deaths.
– Our level of immunity is almost nil Says Breban. “People aged 50 and over are likely to be immune, but the rest of us are not, so we’re very vulnerable,” he adds. However, he believes that the epidemic can be stopped. The key to this should be a vaccination campaign in countries where the virus is endemic.
Until this year, there were only a few cases of monkey pox in the UK, all of which were the result of a trip to Nigeria. And since the first case was announced in the country on May 7, the number has jumped to 70. A total of 300 cases or suspected cases have been reported in at least 16 countries.
Has the monkey pox virus mutated?
The question is whether the increase in cases means that the monkey pox virus has evolved into a more contagious form. So far, however, no evidence of this has been found, but DNA testing of the virus is still ongoing to see if any mutations have changed its properties. Genetic research to date has shown that this year’s virus matches the strains that arrived in the UK, Singapore and Israel in 2018-2019.
Graham Medley, prof. modeling infectious diseases from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, believes it is unlikely that there will be the same surge in infections worldwide as with the coronavirus. However, he added that the epidemic could last for several months as contact tracing might slow but won’t stop broadcasts.
“ As was the case with the coronavirus, we can expect twists and turns as the monkey pox epidemic unfolds, ” he said. “At the moment, transmission chains are mainly found among sexually active young males, but there are other environments where one contact is enough for monkey pox to spread.” The longer the epidemic lasts and the higher the prevalence, the greater the likelihood that monkey pox will find new niches, he added.
Recently, the Lancet Infectious Diseases published promising, albeit based on a very small sample, research results showing that antiviral drugs can alleviate the course of monkey pox. Four of the seven patients diagnosed with the disease in the UK between 2018 and 2021 were given brincidofovir or tecovirimat, medicines used to treat smallpox.
Three patients who received brincidofovir had modest clinical benefit and the duration of the disease was not shortened. On the other hand, in the case of a person treated with tecovirimat, the stay in hospital was shorter, as was the period during which, thanks to PCR tests, active virus was detected in the body.
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Dr. Hugh Adler, co-author of a study at Liverpool University Hospitals, said the effect of tecovirimate treatment was a “promising signal”, although it only involved one patient.
Great Britain has already purchased a batch of tecovirimat. It also provides vaccinations against smallpox to people who have had close contact with the infected, so that the disease is milder in their case. According to the local media, an additional 20 were ordered. doses of the vaccine, previous supplies were 5 thousand. pieces.
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