It is possible that we will all get infected with Omicron? Dr. Afelt: we play biological roulette

We can see that the fifth wave is already behind us – said the Minister of Health on February 9. Infection statistics and the number of orders for tests drop week by week. On the other hand, experts warn that there may be up to 12 times more infected Poles than the official data provide. If we add to this the greater infectivity of the Omicron, our poor vaccination and our frequent ignoring of the principles of DDM, the question arises: is it possible that we all get infected with Omicron? – Statistically, it is possible – says Dr. Aneta Afelt to Medonet. – We play biological roulette – says the expert and explains why.

1. Official infection statistics do not reflect the true scale of infection. The model of the Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of the University of Warsaw shows that there may be even 12 times more of them
2. The omicron has a transmissivity almost equal to the pox virus – one of the most infectious pathogens known. Meanwhile, Poles are still a poorly vaccinated society, and we often ignore the rules of the sanitary regime
3. – The effect may be such that the vast majority of us can become infected in a short time – says Dr. Aneta Afelt
4. The expert emphasizes that unvaccinated people play a kind of roulette with the virus. (…) This is a lottery, moreover – it is biological selection – he says
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The real number of cases is even 12 times higher

The statistics of coronavirus infections in Poland are still high. On January 9, we gained almost 47 thousand. new cases. However, when you look at the weekly levels of coronavirus infection, you can see that in the last week of January there were fewer than two weeks ago. – The apogee of the fifth wave is behind us – says Minister of Health Adam Niedzielski, emphasizing that it is confirmed both in terms of the number of new infections as well as examinations and orders for tests.

1. See also: «Beginning of the end of the epidemic». Is this the end of the fifth wave? A chart of infections in Poland

On the other hand, experts point out that official infection statistics do not reflect their true scale. A few days ago, Dr.-Ing. Franciszek Rakowski from the Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling at the University of Warsaw. – Our model shows that the numbers given by the ministry should be multiplied by 12 – he said in an interview with PAP. This would mean that about 500 people may now become infected. people a day. Why are these numbers not visible in official statistics? According to Dr. Rakowski, a lot of people do not want to test or do it outside the official system.

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In addition, the infectivity of the Omicron is very high. Moreover, our society is poorly vaccinated against COVID-19 (according to ECDC data, after two doses it is less than 58%, after a booster / additional dose over 28%). In addition, we are not very good at following the principles of DDM (distance, disinfection, masks).

1. Editors recommend: The number of people who definitely do not want to get vaccinated is growing

All this can lead to the fact that we all get infected with Omicron?

We asked the above question to Dr. Aneta Afelt from the COVID-19 Team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences. – Statistically, it is possible – he says bluntly. – What’s more Looking from the point of view of statistics, during the course of the coronavirus epidemic in Poland, it is highly probable that almost everyone has contracted it, at least once.

Dr. Afelt recalls what was the situation in previous waves when the infectivity of the coronavirus was lower. – We have clearly seen that during the wave of infections in agglomerations, the percentage of the infected population was between 18 and 22 percent. If the virus entered a less-populated but well-connected and connected community, 40-60% of the virus was infected in a short time. population.

– Currently, we are in a situation where the virus has a transmissivity almost equal to the pox virus – one of the most infectious viruses we know (one person can infect 10-12 more – editor’s note) – emphasizes Dr. Afelt. – Moreover, aerosols with coronavirus particles exhaled by a sick person float in the air, not subject to gravity as easily as heavier saliva droplets. It means that risk is posed by all closed rooms, loud talking / shouting to each other from a short distance without a mask, singing together, etc. The effect may be such that the vast majority of us can become infected in a short time – he estimates.

The unvaccinated play roulette with Omicron

If we are vaccinated, we will come into contact with the virus with a relatively dry foot. – Few exceptions may be people who have a predisposition to seriously ill – notes the researcher. This is because more and more data say that these are genetically determined issues.

1. Also read: They can live with someone with COVID-19 and never get infected. Why? Scientists know several reasons

People who are not vaccinated against COVID-19 are in a completely different position. – They are virtually defenseless against the coronavirus – admits Aneta Afelt. – They play a kind of roulette with him: I will get sick, I will not get sick, the infection will pass easily, or maybe very hard, maybe hospitalization will be necessary, maybe a respirator? This is a lottery, moreover – it is biological selection – he says directly. – We started this process at our own request, giving up vaccination and ignoring the rules of the sanitary regime.

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