“It is already certain that the fourth wave will come.” Where will it hit the hardest? The doctor says straight

In fact, it is already certain that the fourth wave will take place – admits Dr. Jerzy Karpiński, director of the Health Department of the Pomeranian Voivodship Office. In his opinion, the increases in infections will start at the turn of August and September. How are hospitals preparing for this moment? Will the health service handle it? Can the situation from the Third Wave, with the failure or even collapse of the health service, repeat itself? Dr. Karpiński explains this in an interview with Medonet.

1. Dr Jerzy Karpiński predicts that the increases in infections in the fourth wave will most likely be recorded at the turn of August and September and throughout September
2. Dr. Karpiński reminds that the fourth wave will primarily hit people who are not vaccinated against COVID-19
3. The doctor urges people who have not been vaccinated to do so as soon as possible. However, he admits that the vacation period is one of the most difficult in terms of the effectiveness of these incentives
4. The provinces with the lowest vaccination coverage will find themselves in the most difficult situation. The doctor does not rule out that in these regions the situation from the Third Wave may repeat itself
5. More information about the coronavirus on the Onet homepage.

Monika Mikołajska / Medonet: Health Minister Adam Niedzielski recently admitted that “stabilization of infections is a thing of the past” and we have more and more cases of SARS-CoV-2 week by week. What do you think will be the fourth wave? Is it already a doomed or do we still have a chance to avoid it?

Bow. med. Jerzy Karpiński, Director of the Health Department of the Pomeranian Voivodship Office: In fact, it is already certain that the fourth wave will come. Of course, we would like its strength to be as low as possible, so that what we experienced in the fall or spring would not be repeated. At the moment, it seems that this will not happen.

So it can be said that, unfortunately, we are headed for the fourth wave. What is the situation “for today”?

From a scientific and medical point of view, we know that people who are vaccinated are protected against new mutations in the coronavirus as well. The greatest attention is paid to the most severe, but there are actually about a few hundred variants of SARS-CoV-2.

When looking at the UK or Israel, many people may ask themselves: if these countries have such a large percentage of vaccinated populations (over 66% after at least the first dose), why are more and more people there suffering from COVID-19?

There is an answer to that. The 70 percent mentioned by the lady. the populations of these countries were vaccinated against the first variant of the coronavirus – before the appearance of new mutations, the effectiveness of the preparations was very high. The R index dropped to the level of approx. 0,4 – 0,6, which meant that the spread of SARS-CoV-2 was halted. For the new variants, the R-index is much higher – so the infectivity is higher and the spread of the pathogen is easier. Importantly, this applies to people who are not vaccinated against COVID-19.

And now, if in Great Britain we have approx. 70 percent. vaccinated, 30 percent remain. unprotected. It is known that these are mainly young people up to 35 years of age. It is also known that the course of COVID-19 is much more dangerous for them than in the case of the original variant of SARS-CoV-2.

We have a worse situation in terms of vaccination coverage in Poland.

Let me remind you that 30 million Poles are behind the first dose, which gives immunity at the level of 40-18%. Full immunity, which we gain after the second dose – less than 16 million. You could say half of us are not fully vaccinated yet. And this is the situation that creates the conditions for the spread of the next wave of the epidemic. That is why I am appealing, let’s use the full vaccination course, if we vaccinate ourselves with a two-dose vaccine, let’s not give up the second injection! It provides us with protection at the level of 98%, protects against severe complications of COVID-19.

Many experts emphasize that the fourth wave will primarily hit people unvaccinated against COVID-19

Yes. This is what we definitely know about the forthcoming fourth wave. It will apply to those who have not been vaccinated. One can come across information that opponents of vaccination readily pick up on, namely that people who are vaccinated also get sick. However, I would like to point out that this applies to an average of 0,6 percent. vaccinated – this is very little. Moreover, it is often affected by all sorts of diseases that weaken the immune system of these people. It also means that the vast majority of those who are vaccinated are protected. As a doctor, I would like to assure you that vaccinations are 100% effective. a scientifically proven method to prevent severe complications, hospitalization and the need to “go under a ventilator”. The consequences of such a state of affairs are often truly dramatic.

I would also like to point out that neither the WHO nor the health services of any country in the world have announced that the pandemic is over. Therefore, firstly, vaccination remains the main weapon in the fight against coronavirus, and secondly – we are still bound by the rules of the sanitary regime: distance, hand hygiene, avoiding crowds. I know people are very tired of all of this, but this is the way to safety and our own peace.

Still, our willingness to vaccinate is not the best. Why, in your opinion, Poles do not want to vaccinate, do not want to use a tool that will protect them against the virus and its consequences?

In my opinion, this is really due to a lack of knowledge. I am a doctor and I do not know, for example, mechanics – in this case I rely on the knowledge of specialists. In the case of vaccines and COVID-19 in general, it is similar – you have to trust specialists, i.e. doctors and other health care professionals. They know best how the vaccine works, how the antibody production process looks like, how long-term cellular immunity develops, etc.

Increased vaccination awareness is the only way to increase vaccination coverage. There is no other. I believe that the efforts made by doctors and scientists, including virologists, infectious diseases and epidemiologists, will pay off.

What seems most important is the clear and simple communication of knowledge about vaccines and the coronavirus itself. Explaining often difficult phenomena and mechanisms driving the epidemic.

This is. We need an accessible, simplified but reliable message. And here I see a huge role – but also a responsibility – of the state, that is the media. Another important thing, if someone has doubts, I recommend contacting a GP who will approach us individually, refer to a specific situation, explain our doubts, advise. In my opinion, such information has the greatest power.

Back to the fourth wave. You said she was certain. Is the health service preparing for the increases in infections that are expected already in the second half of August? Could there be situations that we remember from previous months, when in some hospitals there were no beds and ventilators, and ambulances circulated between facilities looking for places for patients?

In fact, increases will most likely take place at the turn of August and September and throughout September. Considering the spread of the Delta in Europe and the return of our compatriots from holidays, it is inevitable. However, specialists predict that this will be a rapid increase in the disease, which will then stop abruptly. So there will not be a situation from the spring when the number of patients continued to grow, to a scale previously unimaginable for us, which already exceeded the capabilities of health care.

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As for the Pomeranian Voivodeship, we have over a million people vaccinated with the second dose. On the other hand, it is estimated that 200-400 thousand. people have acquired passive immunity – after contracting COVID-19, i.e. for a period of about six months, they will not pose a threat. Generally, therefore, the scale of the fourth wave should not be large. The risk will also be lower in other provinces leading in the vaccination ranking.

Observing the vaccination process in Pomerania, we can see that there are poviats in which the percentage of vaccinated persons is very low, at the level of 20-30%. We will direct mobile vaccination points there. They will be located in the most convenient places for residents – the point is to reach people who had difficulties reaching the clinic or other point where they could get vaccinated. Now they will have it in place, as it were.

How about the fourth wave itself?

So far, we do not expect such a difficult situation as in spring, when every day in Pomerania there were 2,6 thousand people. sick. We expect up to several hundred cases a day, and the health service will be able to handle it. However, we are constantly appealing for people who have not been vaccinated to do so as soon as possible. The vacation period is unfortunately one of the most difficult in terms of the effectiveness of these incentives. Some people are on vacation, and some, even if they are there, do not want to waste time traveling to and from the vaccination point. Such prose of life.

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You are talking about Pomerania, which is at the forefront of vaccinated provinces. But, for example, Podkarpacie has approx. 32 percent. fully vaccinated residents, Podlasie – 36 percent. (data as of July 26).

Certainly, in regions with low vaccination coverage (that is, those occupying the last places in the «ranking» of vaccinated provinces), it will be the biggest problem. By analyzing our voivodeship, we know where the situation is the weakest in this respect, and therefore which places will probably be most heavily burdened during the fourth wave. Recently, a crisis team took place. We have informed hospitals in the most vulnerable areas to get ready for this and that everything must be ready by September. This month, like October, will give us a real picture of the scale of the fourth wave of the pandemic.

Additionally, in the infectious diseases hospital in Gdańsk, we have protection for 200-300 places. Each hospital must be ready to admit a certain number of patients. The temporary hospital itself, now demobilized, will be fully operational within two weeks if necessary. We hope that such increases will not take place, but on the other hand, I can say that we will certainly manage in this first rising wave.

When it comes to the least vaccinated voivodships, unfortunately you have to take into account that the situation from the third wave, when the health service was inefficient or even collapsed, may repeat itself.

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3. Dr. Grzesiowski on the anti-vaccine attack: from words to deeds

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