Is this the peak of the wave or will infections keep coming? Prof. Filipiak: “it’s a bit like reading tea leaves”

Today, the health ministry informed that last week there were almost 25. patients with COVID-19 and as many as 109 deaths. Is this the climax of the current wave of infections announced by Minister Adam Niedzielski for mid-August? – It seems that the peak of the summer wave of diseases is passing right now, but it is all a bit like reading coffee grounds – comments prof. dr hab. med. Krzysztof J. Filipiak, cardiologist, clinical pharmacologist, co-author of the first Polish textbook on COVID-19, rector of the Medical University of Maria Skłodowskiej-Curie in Warsaw.

1. The number of infections and deaths is increasing week by week. While in June there were 1-2 thousand infections. per week, and deaths around 17-20, today it is 25 thousand. cases and over 100 victims of coronavirus in a similar period
2. According to prof. Filipiak, these numbers are underestimated, and there are probably 10 or 20 times more infections
3. The expert notes that the coronavirus is not a seasonal pathogen and we should no longer talk about spring, summer or autumn waves – increases become independent of the seasons
4. The professor is also concerned that no one controls the epidemiological situation. – If the percentage of positive tests is over 30%, it simply means that no one has control over the infections and everything is just a contribution to substantively poor press conferences – he says
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Are we at the peak of the infection wave?

The weekly report of infections and deaths shows that 19 people were entered into the official COVID-24 registry in the last seven days. 918 infected. This is a lot for the summer season and the period of functioning not in the state of an epidemic, but “only” of an epidemic threat, but – according to experts – and so much less than in real terms.

– Some experts believe that the current data on infections of 5-6 thousand per day should be multiplied by at least ten. I know of those who suggest multiplying this number by 20. Whatever It just doesn’t make sense to refer to the number of infections, different models, with such an embarrassingly low level of testing – evaluates prof. Filipiak.

The expert points out that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is not seasonal in nature, as we are used to thinking about pathogens that cause symptoms of respiratory infections.

SARS-CoV-2 is not a seasonal virus

— What we used to call the “spring wave” or “autumn wave” is actually a sequence of large waves of infections following one another, new variants of immunity escaping and an overlapping of immunity – extremely short after illness and a little longer, about six months after current vaccines, she notes, adding that this is worrying.

– Since we had a large wave of diseases in April, it means that in October we will get infected again, if we do not get vaccinated additionally.

The rest of the text below the video.

Is another wave of covid infections waiting for us in the fall?

When asked about the forecast for the coming weeks, prof. Filipiak recommends vigilance and humility, especially since, in his opinion, the official data has nothing to do with reality.

– Perhaps the dynamics of the incidence increase is slightly slowing down now, but I would not fall into the tone of the imminent transition of the wave as represented by the representatives of the Ministry of Health. Tests, vaccinations, masks are still important, wherever they are needed, hygiene and protection with oral antiviral drugs, which we still do not have in Poland. If the percentage of positive tests is over 30%, it simply means that no one has control over the infections and everything is just a contribution to substantively poor press conferences – he sums up.

So what should we expect in the fall?

— Whatever autumn may look like, we can do one thing: get vaccinated as soon as possible. Let’s not wait for dedicated, new vaccines, designed more for omicron variants. Also, current vaccines are still effective in reducing the risk of death, hospitalization and severity of infection. We can already see it when, with a possible real 60 infections, we have only a dozen deaths – the expert notes, adding that a second booster will also be a good reinforcement, which should be available to everyone, regardless of age.