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This could be the sixth wave of a pandemic – assessed prof. Andrzej Fal. He also warned that soon we can see over a dozen thousand cases of COVID-19 daily in official statistics. So far, the situation in Poland is not developing as dynamically as in European countries, and this is because »we have as many infections as we test». However, there are definitely more patients, because many of us test ourselves. It is a “gray area” of patients who simply do not exist in the statistics of the Ministry of Health.
- On Tuesday, July 5, for the first time since April, the daily statistics returned to four-digit figures (1075 to be exact).
- Since we are testing a very limited number of people, the results showing the number of new infections are not high, notes Prof. Fal in an interview with Medonet
- He also adds that looking through the prism of institutions, there are more and more patients
- In his opinion, the most likely scenario is a huge increase in the incidence
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
Tests and new cases are dependent values
Prof. Andrzej Fal, head of the Department of Allergology, Lung Diseases and Internal Diseases at the hospital of the Ministry of Interior and Administration in Warsaw, pointed out that official statistics only include those for whom doctors order tests in the IT system, which means that many patients are simply not included in the lists, for example those who perform tests from pharmacies on their own. When asked if we could be dealing with the sixth wave of the pandemic, he said, “yes, this could be the sixth wave.” He added that in a pandemic, in addition to statistics, context is also important.
– We have as many infections as we test. These are dependent values. Since we are testing a very limited number of people, the results showing the number of new infections are not high. On the other hand, if we look at our neighbors, at Europe, at the results of recent days, the number of cases is growing very quickly – emphasized prof. Halyard.
The rest of the conversation is under the video.
In France, over 200 jobs were recorded on Tuesday. new infections, and Italy and Germany registered over 100 at the same time. new cases. Meanwhile, in Poland, according to official data, we have only exceeded the ceiling of a thousand new cases per day.
The “gray zone” of the sick
Despite the fact that in the statistics in Poland, COVID-19 does not look so bad, from the point of view of medical practice, the number of patients is still growing.
– Of course, the data of large populations should be considered objective, but what I see in the facilities I have contact with is actually a significant increase in the number of people who are infected and have symptoms – most often upper respiratory tract infections – said the professor.
He noted that in such patients, after the test, it most often turns out to be COVID-19. The expert also noted that the reproduction rate above 1,3 indicates that “the infection is developmental, not involutional”.
What’s next for us?
As the expert pointed out, the most likely scenario is a huge increase in morbidity, although rather mild, which will probably not lead to an overload of the health care system, a significant increase in the number of deaths and complications.
– I think that we will have several thousand zlotys very soon. illnesses daily. Numbers in the order of 30 thousand. may appear in the fall. Let’s look at the number of tests performed in France, Germany and Italy. If we were to perform the same number of tests per million inhabitants, I think that today we would be at the level of 10. new cases – summed up prof. Halyard.
Prof. Fal warned at the same time that even a mildly past illness “may come back after a few months” in the form of complications.
According to prof. The wave of testing for COVID-19 should be more common, even if people returning to the country from directions where the disease is rapidly spreading should be tested.
– I am not talking immediately about population testing of all suspicious cases, but expanding the group. Close attention should also be paid to people returning from countries where the COVID-19 problem is much more important. These are largely our holiday goals for us, and according to the virus reports, there is a lot there, the expert noted.
Second booster dose urgently needed
Prof. Fal also pointed out that it is necessary to allow vaccination with a second booster dose as soon as possible, starting with people who, due to their profession, may be particularly at risk of infection. This is, for example, in medical professions. There are no obstacles to make such a decision now, without waiting for a recommendation from the European Medicines Agency in this matter. In contrast, new vaccines that incorporate Omicron sub-variants may simply not be available for now.
Symptoms of COVID-19 remain similar
As for the symptoms of the disease themselves, they still vary in severity and their spectrum does not change.
– We have a full spectrum of symptoms, although without the originally commonly diagnosed olfactory and taste disorders. On the other hand, cognitive disorders, fatigue syndrome that lasts a long time, covid fog, shortness of breath with reduced physical capacity and a number of others are symptoms that are all variants in the course of infection – he emphasized.
– The incidence of infections varies with different variants, for example with Omikron pneumonia, there are fewer of them than with the Alpha or Delta variants, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Virtually none of the symptoms that we know from the history of two years of the pandemic has completely disappeared – noted Prof. Halyard.
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