How will the epidemic develop in the fall and winter season? There are three scenarios

The first days of October brought record increases in COVID-19 incidence. On October 4, the number of people infected with the coronavirus in Poland exceeded 100. Everyone wonders what awaits us in autumn and winter, when the threat is even greater? PAS scientists developed three possible scenarios: more and less optimistic and pessimistic. What could happen?

1. On October 4, the number of infected people in our country exceeded the limit of 100 thousand.
2. Scientists of the Polish Academy of Sciences: how the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland develops in the fall and winter season depends on three factors: the role of children and adolescents in spreading the virus, the degree of adherence to recommendations, the efficiency of the testing and isolation system or quarantine
3. On their basis, the scientists of the Polish Academy of Sciences developed three possible scenarios: the more and less optimistic and the pessimistic one
4. Scientists from the Polish Academy of Sciences: the pandemic is a medical, social and economic tragedy, but it is also a lesson for all of us
5. For more up-to-date information on the coronavirus epidemic, visit the TvoiLokony home page

«Last bell for behavior change, people need to shake off»

On October 1, the Minister of Health spoke about the escalation of the epidemic, two days later, the spokesman of the Ministry, Wojciech Andrusiewicz, commenting on the record increase in infections from Saturday (over 2,3 thousand) said: “Unfortunately, in the coming days and weeks we have to get used to these results”.

Experts are concerned about the development of the situation in the context of autumn and the upcoming winter: – From October, we are threatened by three plagues: COVID-19, flu and smog. This mixture can be very dangerous. We will not survive a large flood of patients – warned in an interview with Medonet, a specialist in lung diseases and internal diseases, Dr. hab. Tadeusz M. Zielonka.

1. «Since March, we have lived in one plague. Three of us have been threatening us since October ». A pulmonologist explains how smog affects the risk of COVID-19

– It is only the beginning of the second wave of the epidemic, and there is already a shortage of places in hospitals; it can only get worse. This is the last call for a change in behavior, people must shake off – alarms Dr. Ernest Kuchar (from PAP).

Fall-winter season and COVID-19. What could happen? Three scenarios

Possible scenarios for the development of the epidemic in Poland were developed by scientists of the Polish Academy of Sciences. These are described in the document: Understanding COVID-19. Development of the COVID-19 team at the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences ». There are three scenarios: more and less optimistic and pessimistic.

How the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland develops in the fall and winter season depends on three factors:

1. the role of children and adolescents in spreading the virus (this issue is still not settled; scientists note that children are more asymptomatic and some studies indicate that they are less often a source of infection for adults, on the other hand, outbreaks in groups of children and transmission from the child to other household members)
2. the degree of compliance with the recommendations of wearing masks, respiratory hygiene, hand hygiene and maintaining social distance also in workplaces
3. the efficiency of the testing and isolation system or quarantine

When writing about the risks in the fall and winter season, scientists note that after the summer restrictions were relaxed, the incidence of COVID-19 shows an upward trend, and the R index is at the level of 1,3.

Recall that this indicator shows how many people can be infected by one patient with COVID-19 infection. If it is more than 1, it means that one patient infects more than one person, and thus the epidemic is still developing. When the R-factor is below 1, it is a sign that the epidemic is dying out and fewer and fewer people are getting infected from each other.

1. What is the R index in Poland?

According to the researchers, in the autumn we can expect an increase in the R index, which will be associated with more frequent stay of people in closed rooms and the opening of school facilities. «Increased dynamics is one of the threats in the coming season: with R above 1,5, the epidemic will exceed the health protection capacity this year»- we read in the report.

COVID-19 in Poland. Optimistic scenario

The optimistic scenario assumes a low infectivity of children and more urgent adherence to recommendations. If this happens, the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections will not increase. According to the researchers, a constant effective reproductive rate of <1,1 can then be assumed.

“Compliance with the recommendations for distancing also reduces the incidence of flu, so fewer people with symptoms that may indicate COVID-19 and require testing, and thus – ensuring the efficiency of the testing and quarantine system” – explained the researchers from the Polish Academy of Sciences

COVID-19 in Poland. Less optimistic scenario

This model still assumes low infectivity in children, but less urgent adherence. If this works, then outbreaks of local disease outbreaks are to be expected, as is the case today, the researchers write.

Some outbreaks can be extinguished, but in the case of larger ones, detected with delay, numerous secondary, secondary and secondary illnesses occur, and local transmission is preserved at a higher level.

The increased number of cases, even with a stabilized dynamics, means a greater burden on public health services and the risk of system failure. In turn, exceeding the capacity of the testing system causes delays in the diagnosis of outbreaks, limiting the effectiveness of local anti-epidemic measures.

COVID-19 in Poland. Pessimistic scenario

This variant assumes an infectivity of children similar to that of adults, as is the case with influenza, and non-compliance with the recommendations for distancing and wearing protective masks.

If the first assumption is correct, “within a few weeks from the beginning of the school year, outbreaks can be expected in educational institutions, especially in areas where an increased incidence is already observed, and the cases are not related to the identified outbreak”.

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The second risk is the lack of masks or their incorrect use and failure to maintain an appropriate social distance. Scientists point out that this may be favored by the fact that, due to weather conditions, we will be more often in closed spaces in the autumn and winter season. Under such conditions, the risk of transmission is much higher.

“In this scenario, the capabilities of the Sanitary Inspection would most likely be quickly exceeded, resulting in a rapid increase in the number of cases” – warn the scientists of the Polish Academy of Sciences.

What can we do? Recommendations of scientists of the Polish Academy of Sciences

After seven months of exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, we already know that infection with this respiratory coronavirus most often occurs in a situation of longer (typically over 15 minutes) and close (distance less than 2 m) contact with an already infected person in a closed room – they remind scientists in development.

We can therefore reduce the risk of infection by shortening the contact time, maintaining the recommended distance (at least 2 m), not raising your voice during the conversation, wearing a face mask (covering the mouth and nose). It is also important to wash your hands frequently and avoid touching your face.

In closed rooms, the above sanitary rules should be strictly applied – scientists emphasize.

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Even in the event of meetings in the open air, you should not forget to keep your distance and, if this is not possible, to put on a mask. In regions with high COVID-19 prevalence, “you should definitely avoid religious (mass) or family ceremonies (weddings or pompous name days, birthdays or anniversaries), public events (sports matches, concerts, theater performances) that attract a lot of people and during which it is impossible to comply with the appropriate sanitary recommendations. During such gatherings, one should refrain from direct greetings, goodbyes, other cordial gestures, hugging, hugging, etc.

«The threat of infection with SARS-CoV-2 should prompt us to vaccinate against seasonal flu and pneumococci»- scientists of the Polish Academy of Sciences write. Simultaneous infection with influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2 is particularly dangerous. Vaccination against pneumococci largely prevents complications from COVID-19.

“The pandemic is a medical, social and economic tragedy, but it is also a lesson for all of us” – sum up scientists from the Polish Academy of Sciences.

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