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Maciej Jasiński, who runs the “Fizyk Explains” website, predicts its development in Poland on the basis of data on the COVID-19 epidemic. What is his prognosis?
Predicted development of the epidemic in Poland
Maciej Jasiński, who runs the blog “Fizyk Explains”, publishes on his website predictions about the development of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus epidemic in Poland. It uses the available data and uses them to create graphs that predict how the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases will change. These predictions fit the existing data of the exponential function and the logarithmic function.
In the graphs we can find the number of active cases (cases confirmed minus deaths and recoveries). According to the data, on March 17 there was a slowdown in forecasts – fewer cases of infection were diagnosed than it would have resulted from forecasts. “If this trend continues for the next few days, it will be possible to talk about the impact of the actions taken on the development of the situation and forecasts,” Jasiński writes on the blog, but at the same time he warns against hurrayoptimism, because a smaller number of diagnosed cases may also result from a smaller number of tests carried out . Currently, they are made to people who show clear symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection.
You can read more about the prognosis of the epidemic from a mathematical point of view on the blog fizykwyjasnia.pl
How does Poland protect itself against the sudden increase in COVID-19 incidence?
Along with the increase in SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections in Poland, our government, headed by the prime minister, minister of health, minister of interior and administration, as well as the minister of education, is taking measures to reduce the risk of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.
From Thursday (March 12.03) all educational institutions and universities are closed. As a result of the epidemic emergency, cultural establishments (cinemas, theaters, museums), catering establishments and most shops were closed. The government also decided to temporarily close the country’s borders (from 15.03) and reintroduce border control. International air and rail connections have been suspended. Each person returning to the country must be quarantined for fourteen days. Failure to comply with the quarantine rules may result in a fine of up to PLN 5.
The most important information about the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus:
- GIS announcement for travelers. International calls on hold
- What does home quarantine look like when coronavirus is suspected? List of rules that must be followed
All these actions are aimed at flattening the disease curve. This concept was developed on the basis of an article in The Lancet. It assumes collective and collective effort, as well as active action to minimize the risk of mass infections in a short time.