How to make plans in an era of uncertainty: Dmitry Falaleev

We continue to talk with experts, businessmen and futurists about how to make plans in a world where nothing is clear. Dmitry Falaleev, founder of the educational startup U Skillz, answered the blitz questions next.

How to make a successful business development plan for the year? What about five?

I don’t know, and I won’t believe anyone who says they know. Considering how many things have been happening in recent months that seemed fantastic to us six months ago, a startup logic with a short planning horizon, readiness for super-fast changes in everything (including plans) is the most correct, in my opinion. Well, or if you want something smarter – here is the phrase attributed to Eisenhower: “Plans are useless, planning is priceless.”

What technologies will change society the most in the next five years?

Six months ago, I would have said that there are a lot of areas that will “pull” the focus on themselves: from quantum physics to technologies related to education, financial technologies and a lot of everything else. Now it seems to me that it will be everything related to medicine, health, biology, and not even in terms of improving health (there was a good trend anyway and it will not suffer, it seems to me), but rather saving it and life. Medtech, biotech.

What skills will be in demand in your field in three to five years?

I think that plus or minus some skills will be in demand everywhere now. Everything was moving towards that, and given the pandemic, the crisis, it has become even more relevant. The ability to quickly respond and rebuild, learnability, universalism, the ability to quickly and efficiently work with information (which is more and more, and at the same time it just doesn’t become good anymore), entrepreneurial thinking (for everyone, not only for entrepreneurs). But the most important thing for me is one thing – I’m really not sure that this is a skill – critical thinking.

What types of companies will win ten years from now?

Fast – that’s for sure, with a startup mindset. This, by the way, is very funny: in recent years, corporations have been hard at play with startups (all these accelerators, agile and other imitations), and now it looks like they will have to “really” learn this. The second important “skill” for companies depends on scenarios. These will be either non-toxic, principled companies, or, conversely (I certainly hope not, but such a scenario is possible) – not burdened with principles.

How will we share information ten years from now?

In ten years, we will definitely come to communicate non-verbally. Whether an external removable device will be involved in this, or there will be something like chipping – I think we will understand in five years.

How will people make a living ten years from now? And you?

I wish I could say it’s going to be entrepreneurship for everyone – but no, I don’t know. But self-employment, freelancing will definitely develop. And I myself will definitely continue to be an entrepreneur.

In what cities will we live in 15 years? What services will flourish in them?

Again, very different scenarios are possible – just like two pills for Neo. On the one hand, the continuation of the current pre-crisis one, where everything is built around an “individual person” with the sharing of everything, with the institution of not ownership, but rather use and a huge set of social services for one person, mobile, not tied to one location both within the city and and any wider. And as a result – with a bunch of service companies for each activity. On the other hand, in some way a rollback or revision of the concept of cities of the past with a narrow set of services, and to a greater extent either basic or aimed at protective functions: police, firefighters – everything that a person most likely cannot physically provide by himself. Why is that? Because a person will build his “mini-city” to a greater extent (due to various kinds of threats) – his car, his country house, some of his “possessions”, which until recently seemed wild to us – such as bunkers (noted How did they envy those who had a country house during the pandemic?). In general, everything that only resources will allow him to rely on himself in any “incomprehensible situation” – in an epidemic, an economic crisis, with protesters taking to the streets. Sounds unfortunate, to be honest.

What will be the most valuable resource in 20 years?

Health and – this is related – time in terms of active longevity.

How to make plans in an era of uncertainty?

The simple answer, again, is no, but it’s impossible. Therefore, having plans for very short periods of time, being ready to change them as quickly and painlessly as possible. In general, read the classics of startup construction.

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