How the coronavirus pandemic may affect our planet’s climate

COVID-19 is cutting CO2 emissions right now: concerts and championships are cancelled, we work more from home and use less transportation. But how will the pandemic affect our habitat in the future?

For the first time in a long time, in March 2020, the water in the canals of Venice became so transparent that you can see the fish swimming under the water. This happened after the introduction in Italy of a complete quarantine and a ban on the movement of boats on the waterways of Venice.

At the same time, a lot of false news appeared on social networks about dolphins and swans returning to Venetian waters. National Geographic quickly refuted them – the photographs with swans were taken on the island of Burano, where these birds have always lived, and the video with dolphins was filmed on the island of Sardinia, hundreds of kilometers from Venice.

Satellite imagery that captures traces of human activity — car exhaust emissions, fossil fuels burned in power plants and other industrial waste — show a striking decline in pollution levels in China and Italy and the United States since the coronavirus outbreak began.

According to the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA), between February 3 and March 1, CO emissions₂ in China decreased by at least 25%, which is associated with tough government measures to combat the spread of the virus. People began to use cars less, production volumes decreased.

China is the largest air polluter on our planet. It produces 30% of the world’s COXNUMX emissions annually₂.

According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, the number of days with “good air quality” increased by 21,5% compared to the same period last year.

The International Air Transport Association recently announced that global air travel in January, while still showing growth, posted the lowest monthly increase since April 2010. February numbers could be even lower. Aircraft are responsible for approximately 3% of total US greenhouse gas emissions and are projected to triple by 2050. Therefore, any changes in the structure of air travel can have a significant impact on air pollution.

Current changes in indicators do not occur at the system level, but are caused by unforeseen and rather sad events. The virus is now entering its second phase and is spreading beyond China to other countries. This reduces global demand for oil and threatens a general economic downturn. In the long term, this can significantly slow down the development of the green technology and renewable energy industry.

“It would be a mistake to think that a rapidly spreading virus that has already killed thousands and quarantined millions will have a significant impact on climate change,” says James Temple, energy editor at MIT Technology Review. — In world history, there have already been cases of reduced emissions due to economic crises, epidemics and wars. And every time the CO emissions₂ increased again as soon as the economy bounced back.”

James Temple lists several possible implications of the virus for long-term climate change action:

• Any restrictions on the capital market will affect the financing of the production of solar, wind and other alternative forms of energy. Discussion of new projects will be frozen for a while.
• The decline in world oil prices will reduce the competitiveness of electric vehicles.
• China is one of the main producers of solar panels, wind turbines and lithium-ion batteries, which are used for electric vehicles. Chinese companies have already experienced supply chain disruption, which has slowed down work on some renewable energy projects in other countries.
• In recent years, the topic of climate change has become a priority on the political agenda around the world, driven by a growing youth activist movement. But the economic downturn will distract people from environmental concerns as more pressing issues come to the fore: health, work, retirement savings and real estate.

Leading clean energy analyst BloombergNEF has already slashed its 2020 global solar demand forecast as politicians and corporations focus on short-term economic stimulus instead of long-term ones.

Countries are taking crisis measures to support their economies. For example, in the US, $2 trillion has been allocated for this. These funds do not include a strategic replenishment of US oil reserves, but do not include the expansion of tax incentives for renewable energy projects. Therefore, environmentalists assess these measures as balanced.

There are other long-term forecasts that may affect the state of the environment. Coronavirus is doing a forced lifestyle change experiment. An increasing number of people are working from home and reducing travel. This is a more environmentally friendly behavior than the daily commute to the office. Such a trend could change people’s attitudes towards the work process – and, as a result, affect the overall picture of human impact on the environment.

There is another view on the relationship between coronavirus and climate change processes. Many researchers today believe that it is human intervention in nature that is the cause of the spread of diseases such as Ebola, bird flu, SARS, and now COVID-19.

“We have invaded rainforests and other ecosystems where many species of animals live in their natural environment. These animals carry viruses we don’t know about, says David Quammen, author of Spread: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, in an interview with the New York Times. We cut trees, kill animals, sell them in the markets. We are destroying ecosystems and shaking off viruses from their natural hosts. Then viruses need a new carrier. And often we become it.

Pathogens are transmitted from animals to humans. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that three-quarters of new human diseases originate in animals.

“Pathogens don’t respect species boundaries,” says environmental researcher Thomas Gillespie, assistant professor of environmental science at Emory University.

“People create conditions for the spread of disease by reducing the natural barriers between humans and animals in which the virus naturally circulates,” says Gillespie. “I am not at all surprised by the coronavirus outbreak. Most pathogens are yet to be discovered. We are at the very tip of the iceberg.”

There is also good news. The coronavirus pandemic has become a reason for strengthening bans on the capture and sale of wild animals in China at the state level. The measures were introduced temporarily until the end of 2020 in China, the UN conference on biodiversity. Conservationists suggest that this conference could lead to fundamental changes in wildlife laws, and participating countries will commit themselves to protecting animals, similar to the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

The material is being updated.

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