At what age do you need to get married / get married in order to definitely stay together for many years? Results of a special sociological study.
To calculate the optimal age for marriage (which in this case means the lowest chance of divorce), sociologist Nicholas Wolfinger of the University of Utah (USA) analyzed data from the American National Family Dynamics Study for 2006-2010 and 2011-2013.
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The analysis showed an interesting pattern: the probability of divorce in people who married at the age of a little less than or a little over 30 years old was noticeably lower than for those who married earlier or later. Dynamics persisted even after adjusting for gender, ethnicity, parental family structure, age at the time of the survey, education level, religious beliefs, sexual history, and city size.
There are several explanations for this phenomenon. People between the ages of 28 and 32 are usually already quite capable of understanding whether they are really capable of getting along and getting along with a partner, in contrast to younger people who are often blinded by raging hormones. They have already decided on a career choice and managed to “acquire” various responsibilities, their financial situation usually allows, if not to fully support a partner, then at least support him if necessary.
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On the other hand, their worldview is still relatively flexible, they can afford to adjust their lifestyle and habits if married life so requires. They also most often do not yet have “baggage” in the form of former spouses and children from previous marriages.
“It can be assumed that it is precisely those people who are not predisposed to a successful married life who delay the conclusion of the first marriage up to 32 years and longer. The same goes for their potential partners,” says Nicholas Wulfinger.
However, not everyone agrees with the conclusions of the scientist. Sociologist Philip Cohen (Philip Cohen) from the University of Maryland (USA) used data from another major sociological study and came to different conclusions. He does not dispute the increased likelihood of early marriages failing, but he believes that the conclusion that marriages that are too late are more likely to end in divorce is unfounded.
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According to Cohen, marriages between the ages of 35 and 39 do break up a little more often (although if they don’t break up in the first 5 years, the likelihood of divorce in the future is no higher than in earlier marriages), but the difference is quite small. In this model, marriages between the ages of 45 and 49 are the least likely to end in divorce. Cohen also analyzed the relationship of divorce with education level and found that women who received at least a bachelor’s degree are significantly less likely to get divorced. It is noteworthy that they are the most likely to enter into their first marriage between the ages of 27 and 33, so the effect found by Nicholas Wulfinger may be more related to education than age.
In summary, Philip Cohen recommends that young women under 20 focus on pursuing higher education. They are likely to marry later and have children, but this does not increase the risk of divorce, and if the marriage does fall apart, education will help them provide for themselves.
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