How does the weather affect the course of the pandemic? Scientists studied Paris, New York and Rio de Janeiro

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Scientists call for temperature, humidity and wind speed data to be included in modeling the coronavirus pandemic. As the weekly Spiegel wrote, this will allow for better and longer-term planning of activities. Experts believe that the impact of weather on the course of the pandemic has been underestimated so far.

The concentration of the virus is influenced by temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, researchers at the University of Nicosia said
To find out how the weather influences the course of the pandemic, scientists calculated a variable they call the AIR index (airborne infection rate)
The authors of the study then analyzed this indicator for Paris, New York and Rio de Janeiro. The results were surprisingly accurate
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The impact of the weather on the spread of the coronavirus has not yet been thoroughly investigated. Virologist Melanie Brinkmann of the Braunschweig University of Technology quoted Spiegel on a study that said the seasonal effect is around 20 percent. Other researchers give similar values.

Dimitris Drikakis and Talib Dbouk of the University of Nicosia in Cyprus believe that the role of weather in the course of the pandemic has so far been underestimated. Scientists conducted an interesting experiment.

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First, they looked at common models used to predict the course of a pandemic. Epidemiologists use the so-called SIR model (susceptible-infected-recovered model) to calculate the spread of infectious diseases in a population. According to the researchers, the basic model is based primarily on two parameters: the rate of transmission of an infectious disease and the time it takes to recover. In the SIR model, a constant value is assumed for each of them.

“In fact, these values are dynamic,” Drikakis tells Spiegel. It affects the concentration of the virus temperature, relative humidity i wind speed. To take this into account, the researchers calculated the value of a variable they call the AIR index (airborne infection rate).

The AIR index was included in the coronavirus spread forecast model. Drikakis and Dbouk applied it in Paris, New York i Rio de Janeiro.

The results were surprising: in each of the three cities, they were able to pinpoint the period in which the second wave actually observed occurred and explain it by climatic conditions. Paris experienced an epidemic in the spring. On the other hand, during the summer period, the incidence of infections was rather low. A similar story took place in New York. In Rio, where the seasons are different due to the southern hemisphere’s location, outbreaks mostly occurred between June and October, followed by a decline in the number of infected people.

The process of Sars-CoV-2 infection was similar to that known from common respiratory diseases. Influenza viruses are also more stable at low temperatures. There is another effect: when the temperature is low, people spend more time indoors and turn on the heating. This dry, warming air has a negative effect on the mucous membranes of the upper respiratory tract. People become more prone to infections.

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Drikakis believes that more attention should be paid to the seasonality of SARS-CoV-2. He believes that weather factors make two major epidemics a year inevitable anyway. They are, in a sense, a natural phenomenon. But one could prepare for this and plan for constraints such as closures in the long term if necessary.

Others also believe that the impact of weather on the course of the pandemic has so far been underestimated. Aviation Physician Roland Quast even believes that altitude may have an impact on the infection process. In In the higher regions, the temperature drops and the air becomes drier. The director of the Aeromedical Center Germany at Stuttgart airport would like the weather forecast to help deal with the pandemic, for example. Warnings may be issued for regions where the weather is favorable for the spread of the virus.

Apart from the factors of temperature and humidity, it also plays a role UV radiation, ultraviolet radiation of sunlight. Laboratory studies have shown that the virus loses its infectivity when exposed to such radiation.

There are already weather models that talk about the conditions of the coronavirus. The Swiss company Meteomatics offers its customers worldwide data on weather, oceans, environment and climate. The forecast is based mainly on UV radiation data, but also on temperature i relative humidity. Areas where the virus particles remain in the air for more than 2,5 hours before they break down almost completely are marked in red.

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Thorsten Lehr from the University of Saarland also believes that seasonality plays an important role in the occurrence of viruses. A clinical pharmacy professor and his team are modeling the course of the pandemic. His predictions are also based on the SIR model that Drikakis and Dbouk have modified. “It’s the mother of all infection models,” says Lehr. She finds the study of these two extremely interesting. However, for better confirmation, the AIR index should be applied to more cities or regions than just three metropolises.

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Lehr and his team have already worked with weather data and incorporated it into infection models. However, after checking with the virus data actually recorded, no match was found everywhere.

However, as Spiegel points out, it would be desirable to take more account of weather data in the future. They can be a decisive factor in the course of a pandemic.

From Berlin Berenika Lemańczyk

How does the weather affect the course of the pandemic? Scientists studied Paris, New York and Rio de Janeiro

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