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How to adapt to an increasingly complex world and accelerating change? Experts recommend developing critical thinking: we tell you how not to fall for the deception and manipulation of your own brain and other people
What’s going on
The two main trends of the future are the complication and acceleration of change. World economies have reached a level at which it is impossible to develop without the introduction of new technologies. According to a Tech Pro Research survey, 70% of large companies are developing or already have a digitalization strategy.
Oxford University researchers believe that half of routine tasks will be automated in 15 to 20 years. PwC’s Global Technology, Jobs and Skills Survey confirms this prediction. More than 53% of specialists are sure that their work will become obsolete or change a lot over the next ten years, 77% of workers will have to retrain or change their profession. If it is more profitable to replace people with artificial intelligence, this will definitely be done.
According to a 2018 Fujitsu report, 68% of entrepreneurs worldwide see the future of business as human-robot collaboration. In this work, a person will remain intellectual tasks – the work of the mind, reasoning and analytics. Critical thinking helps to cope with such work and adapt to an uncertain future.
Victor Mutiev, Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Medialogy and Literature, Head of the Department of Scientific and Creative Programs of St. Petersburg State Institute of Cinematography:
“Critical thinking can work at the awareness level, at the analytical skill level, and at the professional level. Consistent mastering of these levels helps to rationalize perception, makes the surrounding reality not better, but a little clearer, and predictability is the key to psychological comfort. Critical thinking will not help you avoid risks, but it will help you identify them.”
What is critical thinking
Critical thinking is the ability to doubt incoming information and one’s beliefs, to think clearly and rationally, to look for a logical connection between facts, and to formulate strong arguments. The basis of critical thinking is the ability to reason. Critical thinkers ask questions, question ideas and statements, rather than accepting them as truth.
Test your critical thinking by solving the problem:
Some people think that applicants should attach a photo to their resume. This approach has been criticized for allegedly making it easier for more attractive people to get jobs. One study showed that this is not the case – employers, on the contrary, consider beautiful women to be dumber. The author of the study believes that this attitude is due to the “stupid blonde hypothesis” and recommends that companies apply the Belgian public sector approach of checking resumes without a name, gender and photo. So you can choose the right candidate based on his experience and skills.
Is it true that the anonymous screening approach helped eliminate discrimination in the Belgian public sector?
- It is true.
- Rather true.
- Need more information.
- Rather a lie.
- Lying.
See the end of the article for the correct answer.
The modern information flow is an endless feed of messages that mixes news, advertising, useful content, and propaganda. If you believe everything that is written and said, you can be deceived. For example, in the news they write that, according to an anonymous source, the shares of such and such a company will soon fall in price. If the news turns out to be unreliable, and you sell shares, you will lose money. All information may not be true. Critical thinking helps to recognize lies, separate facts and opinions.
Technology complicates things. Algorithms and content personalization put us in information bubbles. This is a state in which the user sees only the content that he likes.
Algorithms of social networks, search engines and applications analyze preferences, search history, location and other user data. A bubble of content appears around us that does not contradict our point of view. This is how we get into intellectual isolation.
So, journalists from the Canadian newspaper Toronto Star in the summer of 2018 checked 1,3 million words publicly spoken and written by Donald Trump in the first year and a half of his presidency. The newspaper staff found 1972 false statements and 68 untruthful words. In 928, Donald Trump made an average of three false claims per day. Such statements help politicians to get votes, but the choice of the people will be unconscious and unreasonable. If voters are not satisfied with something, they will have to deal with the consequences of the choice themselves.
How to develop critical thinking
Learning critical thinking is not easy. It’s like learning a foreign language – at first everything seems complicated and incomprehensible, but when you understand the logic, it becomes easier.
Victor Mutiev:
“In order to learn a foreign language, we are immersed in the language environment as much as possible. For example, with games, learning a language seems like an exciting adventure rather than hard work. With critical thinking techniques, the situation is more advantageous – we are already immersed in an environment in which it is extremely important to apply them. It remains to take the second step – to come up with your own algorithm for developing critical thinking skills. It can be micro-studies looking for primary sources or games to find more euphemisms in political texts and jargon in TV news. Your task is to take one aspect or technique of critical thinking and work with it in different contexts, trying to understand all its possibilities.
To develop critical thinking, practice the skill on specific cases. Question the abstracts and arguments of this article, check references to studies or the competence of experts. Then learn how to work with critical thinking tools:
- use information verification techniques;
- take into account cognitive distortions;
- do not fall for errors of argumentation;
- get out of information bubbles.
Elena Plekhova, expert on the development of critical thinking, trainer of non-formal education “ART”:
“When working with information, crawl through the text on your stomach – read carefully, listen carefully, look for logical inconsistencies, learn to recognize manipulations.”
Critical Thinking Checklist
To distinguish the truthful and important from “white noise”, information must be approached critically. “5W+H” is the basic technique for checking new data. This is a system of questions with which you should check all incoming information. The answers will help you understand how much you can trust the source and what decisions should be made based on this data.
Who
- will benefit?
- suffer?
- makes a key decision?
- will be affected the most?
- have you thought about it too?
- can give advice?
- is one of the key players?
- deserves recognition?
What are the
- Advantages and disadvantages?
- other points of view?
- alternatives?
- counterarguments?
- best/worst possible scenarios?
- most important/minor options?
- opportunities for positive change?
- obstacles to our actions?
Where
- can you experience this in real life?
- Do you encounter similar concepts and situations?
- is it most needed?
- could this be a problem?
- find more information?
- get help?
- will this work?
- are there areas for improvement?
When
- is this acceptable/unacceptable?
- will it benefit society?
- will this cause problems?
- the best time to act?
- will the result be visible?
- did it play a role in the story?
- expect changes?
- should I ask for help?
Как
- does it correlate with similar data?
- can this affect?
- did we get this information?
- find a safe approach?
- does it help us/others?
- does it harm us/others?
- it might look like in the future?
- use it to our advantage?
Why
- This is problem?
- is it important to me/others?
- is this the best/worst case scenario?
- does it affect people?
- should people know about it?
- has it been unchanged for so long?
- did we let it happen?
Learn more about the 5W + H methodology and critical thinking training in the Trends podcast “You Can’t Write It Off”:
Cognitive distortion
Cognitive distortions are subconscious thought patterns based on faulty reasoning. Such reasoning prevents us from making informed rational decisions. For example, under the influence of cognitive bias, we may choose a new smartphone based on our memories of the presentation and commercial, rather than objective technical characteristics. Cognitive distortions are argumentative errors in our “inner speech”.
Viktor Gorbatov, philosopher, lecturer at the Free University:
“It is not enough to know a list of cognitive distortions and argumentative errors in order to counter them. Correct behavioral attitudes are needed – intellectual openness and awareness. At the same time, there is a GI Joe effect – a kind of metacognitive distortion, a tendency to consider oneself more protected from distortions simply by virtue of a theoretical acquaintance with them. Alas, this is an illusion. We need to work more with cognitive distortions, develop a habit. There is no other way.”
- Attention bias – the dependence of our perception on repetitive thoughts. We often notice what we have seen or remembered before, ignoring other options.
Example. If you have been thinking about changing jobs for a long time, then you will be more willing to pay attention to the incompetence of colleagues and the shortcomings of the company. Although in reality, performance indicators may be higher, and customers may be happier.
- Matching Emotions – the ability to recall facts and events, experiencing certain emotions. Emotional patterns evoke different meaningful associations related to our previous experiences.
Example. In the evening with a hot cup of tea, you feel calm, cozy and warm. This mood alone can evoke memories of family reunions and nights out with best friends.
- Underestimation of inaction – the tendency to underestimate the consequences of inaction, comparing it with the result of action. When choosing between action and inaction with similar consequences, people are more likely to choose inaction.
Example. Some parents refuse to vaccinate their children. They prefer the risk of complication in case of illness (inaction – do not vaccinate) to the risk of complication of vaccination (action – vaccinate the child). At the same time, the risk of getting sick is much higher than the risk of getting complications from vaccination.
- The illusion of frequency, or the phenomenon of Baader-Meinhof An illusion in which recently learned information appears to be repetitive if it reappears within a short period of time.
Example. The illusion of frequency is used by marketers to draw the attention of buyers to the company’s products. Brand logos, videos, social media ads, collaborations with popular bloggers make us subconsciously think about a sales offer in order to ultimately agree to it.
- Illusion of truth effect The tendency to trust a message after it has been repeated many times. It is easier for people to perceive familiar information than to analyze new information.
Example. Plutarch wrote that the ancient Roman politician Cato the Elder ended each of his public speeches with the words “Carthage must be destroyed”, even if the debate was about a completely different issue. His perseverance helped convince the rest of the senators to go to war at the first opportunity – and Carthage was destroyed. This cognitive distortion is often used today in propaganda and the media.
Argumentation errors
Argumentation errors are errors in logical reasoning. Arguments with errors seem convincing, but they cannot be considered correct. If you trust an opponent who uses the tricks of argumentation, you can be forced into someone else’s opinion, deceive or manipulate you. For example, in a discussion, the interlocutor may use a metaphor to explain their position, but apply the conclusions drawn in the context of the metaphor to the original problem.
Viktor Gorbatov:
“Argumentation errors and cognitive biases have much in common. I would even say that these are two sides of the same coin, although there is no unanimity among experts on this matter. For example, Kahneman and Tversky believe that cognitive distortions are most often the result of fast and unconscious heuristics. These are in their own way rational, but oversimplified cognitive processes. They are based on erroneous reasoning. For example, a hasty generalization, or post hoc ergo propter hoc (“After this, therefore, because of this.” – Trends). We can say that cognitive distortions are argumentative errors in our “internal dialogue”. They happen when we make judgments with a “quick system”.
On the other hand, the tricks of argument in relation to other people are essentially based on the cognitive distortions of these people.
The Elaboration Likelihood Model describes two ways of processing a message. The first, central, path is the conscious analysis of information, which requires significant cognitive effort. The second way is to process information using peripheral cues, such as uncritical perception of expert opinion, or following the mass effect. This is very similar to Kahneman’s “two systems”, only not for internal use, but for external use – when communicating with other people.
Blair and Johnson’s three questions about meeting the criteria for a good argument (RAS: Relevant+Acceptable+Sufficient) can be used to counter tricks:
- Relevance: does this argument go to the heart of the matter?
- Acceptability: Are we ready to accept his premises as true?
- Adequacy: Do the premises contain a sufficient basis for asserting the thesis?
Why is it important to verify information?
According to the World Economic Forum, critical thinking is one of the ten most important and in-demand skills by 2025. To solve complex ethical, economic and environmental problems in the future, you need to learn how to work with information and your own thinking now.
Elena Plekhova:
“Checking the information is important in order not to be misled and spread it further. Delusions can do real harm: sow panic, undermine trust, provoke unrest. Of course, no one can force a person who consciously accepts a delusion to check the information. This is everyone’s personal choice. It is important to understand that you can become a source of fakes and manipulations. To live in error is one responsibility, but to become a source of them is another.”
However, critical thinking is not a panacea. Not a one-stop-shop against fake news, disinformation, and fallacies of reasoning. Critical thinking creates a framework for reflection that will help you deal with uncertainty in the future.
Correct answer to the puzzle: there is no information in the text about the effectiveness of the Belgian approach, so we cannot say for sure. We need more information to draw a conclusion.