The new coronavirus that has appeared in China is reaching more European countries. It is getting closer to Poland. What threat should we face? We asked prof. Robert Flisiak, president of the Polish Society of Epidemiologists and Doctors of Infectious Diseases.
- The longer the epidemic lasts, the more questions arise about possible scenarios for its development. Prof. Flisiak in an interview with Medonet confirms that the infection may appear in 40–70 percent people
- – It is not known how many are really infected. Data is understated – it is obvious – says the expert
- The epidemiologist also explains why the COVID-19 outbreak could have arisen in Italy
Aleksandra Lipiec, MedTvoiLokony: According to many scientists, e.g. prof. Marc Lipsitch of Harvard, the coronavirus epidemic is unmanageable. It will be banned by 40 to 70 percent of people. Is this a possible scenario?
Prof. Robert Flisiak: A scenario is possible because this happens with the flu. Only in Poland last year many more people contracted influenza than the number of all people infected with the coronavirus in the world. Even if there is a high percentage of people infected, there is little to do with it, because most people get it just like the flu. There are signs from clinical observations that the course of COVID-19 infection is usually even milder than in the case of influenza. This is evidenced by the fact that there are no catarrhal symptoms (runny nose).
What is the probability that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus will stay with us and cause infections from time to time, even if we now manage to combat the epidemic?
The strain that caused the panic under the slogan “swine flu” is still functioning normally in the environment. In this case, the same will probably happen. Society will become immune because those who have been infected will be immune to it.
Is the coronavirus reaching Poland inevitable?
The coronavirus may even be here with us. After all, we only surveyed about 100 people. Every day, tens of thousands of people have symptoms of upper respiratory tract infections. How many are infected with COVID-19, no one knows.
So the data on the number of cases are unreliable?
They are certainly understated – this is an obvious matter. The Diamond Princess ship is an epidemiological testing ground, where the mortality rate is at the level of 0,5%. The data on the passengers of the ship are the most accurate, because everyone has been examined there. In China, they have not all been investigated for certain. We do not know how many people had a mild or asymptomatic course of the infection.
The new coronavirus is spreading faster than other viruses?
It spreads quickly – we know this because we are closely watching it. But the rate is the same as any other virus that is transmitted by airborne droplets.
What could be caused by the sudden spike in the number of cases in Italy?
Regarding the outbreak of infection in Italy, Climatic conditions turned out to be favorable – temperature oscillating around 0 degrees, high air humidity. Under these conditions, all airborne diseases, including influenza-like infections, spread.
The dynamics of infections in Europe is rising, but is declining in China. Is the fact that fewer and fewer people become infected with the coronavirus in the primary focus of the disease a good sign?
This is the normal course of any epidemic. If the Chinese had not taken measures to limit the spread of the infection, the curve would have been more stretched over time, but they did so early, so the curve is tight. That is why we see that the number of new infections is decreasing day by day.
Closing cities, canceling mass events and isolating patients are solutions that should be taken by every country with a coronavirus epidemic?
Such actions limit the spread of infection and shorten the duration of an epidemic that affects the economy. They are the most desirable for both health and economic reasons. The fewer people are infected, the fewer people will be at risk of seriously contaminating the infection. But this percentage is practically the same as that of the flu. It really is those who die die of their underlying diseases, e.g., chronic cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, metabolic diseases such as diabetes. For these people, any infection can be life-threatening – whether it’s the coronavirus or the flu virus, whatever.
What is the procedure if there is a suspicion of coronavirus infection. When is quarantine necessary?
People who come from China or Italy are subject to clinical observation and medical examinations. They are advised to limit their mobility. It is not yet a complete quarantine, which is complete isolation from a healthy society. We don’t have any case of getting sick at the moment. Only when such a case is identified will those who have had contact with an infected person be quarantined. If someone goes into quarantine, it means that he was not infected at all, because no signs of the disease were detected for 14 days. Quarantine can be done at home and this should apply to the vast majority of people.
Another issue is the quarantine of medical personnel, because these are people who have a high exposure to contact with infected people. Personnel should be kept isolated to the extent that they can contain the spread of disease. He should use mechanical protection in the form of masks.
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