How to solve the problem of traffic jams and who should deal with it – in the material Trends
About the expert: Vladislav Butenko, Head of the Global Sector Urban Development, BCG.
Perhaps one of the most pressing problems in large cities today is traffic jams. Coronavirus, on the one hand, helped temporarily relieve the road systems of megacities, but on the other hand, more and more people, due to the epidemiological danger, began to avoid traveling by public transport. This somewhat undermines years of efforts to ensure that as many motorists as possible change to it. Against the backdrop of rapid urban population growth (+68% by 2050) the problem of traffic congestion can develop into a real transport collapse. Indeed, despite the active calls of eco-activists, supporters of sustainable development and the authorities, people are still in no hurry to give up their personal car, switch to car sharing or ride a bicycle to work. Everyone has their own reasons, but the comfort of personal transportation, the strength of habits and the fear of the unknown definitely play a role.
Traffic jams are not only nerve-wracking and a waste of time, they are also serious damage to the economy and the environment. In the United States alone, traffic congestion cost the country’s economy $2017 billion in 305, and the damage from air pollution caused by the traffic situation in China in 2016 is estimated by experts at $727 billion, or 6,5% of the country’s GDP. Not surprisingly, the smart cities of the future are expected to solve this problem in the first place. And here, of course, artificial intelligence and data will become decisive factors.
In the city of the future, AI and related technologies will help not only relieve traffic, but also solve a number of related tasks: optimize the use of parking spaces, find convenient routes, and monitor road safety. Sounds great, but why are we still wasting time in traffic?
Here, as in the implementation of the unmanned transport system, it’s all about economies of scale. It is very difficult to guarantee the safety and reliability of one unmanned vehicle in a city where all other vehicles are driven by people. On the other hand, if it were possible to immediately replace the entire transport of the city with unmanned vehicles, if control was provided by one centralized system, many problems would disappear by themselves.
But despite the fact that we are talking about the future, the idea of centralization and coordination of actions is of decisive importance today. City governments must become the “masters” of the urban transport ecosystem if they want to keep mobility out of chaos. By reformatting their own role in the ecosystem and ensuring the coordination of the activities of public and private players, they will be able to create more integrated transport networks. This is one of the keys to success in the transition to the cities of the future.
Since the scale, or rather the coverage of the entire urban environment, is a determining factor, the solution to the problem of mobility is beyond the capabilities of an individual company. The task of creating a complex and inclusive system that unites all players, but at the same time to do it independently of them and without their participation, contains a contradiction in its very formulation. What is needed here is not a brilliant independent player, but a skillful coordinator who will effectively synchronize the work of the entire system.
The city government as a “conductor” of the process
The transport solutions of the future will only be effective if they are integrated, and this requires that they be created in collaboration between people from different sectors.
City governments will have to work harder with private companies to take advantage of their skills, expertise and technology. On the other hand, the latter will only benefit from having such a coordinating mechanism. The all-or-nothing principle works here: you cannot solve the problem of urban mobility or ecology only on a few streets. It is necessary to act on the scale of the entire metropolis and simultaneously in several directions. This means partnership is also needed.
It has already begun, and although the prospects are quite bright, it is too early to relax. Of course, cities are already partnering with taxi aggregators and map services to control and route traffic, but the question of scale remains. In order to automate part of the traffic and learn how to manage the entire public transport system and regulatory devices (traffic lights, ceilings), the participation of a much larger number of players and an order of magnitude larger scale is required.
It is noteworthy that in this situation it may be easier to create from scratch than to transform. And we are talking not only about selected areas, but also about entire cities. On the one hand, the idea of building a city seems somewhat artificial, because cities are born as a result of complex multifaceted processes that are influenced by many factors. On the other hand, it is precisely this versatility of existing cities that does not allow us to switch to new approaches simply with the help of an appropriate order. It will create momentum at best, but the transition itself will take a lot of work.
In this regard, the main advantage of projects for the construction of “smart” cities or regions from scratch lies precisely in the centralized coordination of the entire process from the very beginning. The participation of various players here is no less important than in the transformation of existing cities, but the presence of a single control mechanism from the earliest stages gives an unconditional advantage.
Cross-border cities of the future
How successful such projects can become, we will be able to assess already in 2025. By this time, the Saudi government plans to complete the first phase of construction of Neom, a smart cross-border city that should grow in the north-west of the country, in Tabuk. The plans were announced by the Saudi crown prince at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh on October 24, 2017. According to them, all the energy needs of Neom will be provided by wind and solar energy. The city will be safe and comfortable, automation will play a huge role in it. For example, it is planned that functions such as security, logistics, home delivery and care will be provided by robots. As the city will be built from the ground up, other infrastructure and mobility innovations are also planned. But Neom is not the first and not the last of such projects. For example, the UAE authorities are also working in this direction as part of the Masdar initiative.
There are many hopes and expectations associated with the new smart cities. And what can existing megacities learn from them? The answer is centralization:
- Management
Any city, be it a small town or a huge metropolis, is a single organism. Malfunctions and failures in any of its organs can lead to negative consequences for the entire system. As mentioned earlier, authorities can act as a coordinating mechanism – the brain of the entire system. They do not try to control the steps of each involved party – all the “internal organs” of the city are themselves responsible for their work. Instead, the authorities give the system the right impetus, help it move in the right direction.
- data processing
This is one of the key factors in the successful transformation of urban infrastructure. It is not enough to simply install many sensors and store the information they collect in huge data centers. Although information is the “oil” of the XNUMXst century, it is not so simple.
Scattered big data arrays are not a magical solution that will instantly turn an overloaded, choking metropolis into a well-maintained and environmentally friendly space. Here, the winner is the one who will be able to properly dispose of the information received.
Above, we have already talked about economies of scale, the concept of “all or nothing”. It is especially relevant in relation to information. With the integration of each next block of data, the benefits that it brings grow more and more. In addition, up to a certain threshold, the data may not be of practical use at all. For example, it is impossible to set up a control system for unmanned vehicles, receiving information only from every third traffic light in the city. And how to get information from all traffic lights? Connect, involve, interest everyone who is responsible for these traffic lights.
In the context of data, centralization is also important to address issues of data security and protection. Here it will be necessary not only to combine disparate databases, but also to manage their quality and control. An equally important task will be to resolve the conflict between benefit and the need to preserve privacy.
- initiatives
This is not about giving the right impulse to the outside, but about finding those who are already moving in this direction, who have the necessary competencies and experience, as well as integrating them into the overall system. The task of the government here is to create the necessary conditions and platforms, give freedom of action and support those who can take advantage of these opportunities. Similar platforms are already being created both in Asia and in Europe (Singapore has My Transport, Dubai has S’hail, Vienna has WienMobil).
In our country, the most dynamic transformation is taking place in Moscow. The city has changed a lot in recent decades and continues to actively move forward. Probably, it is in Moscow that we will soon be able to see the concept of MaaS (Mobility-as-a-Service or “Mobility as a Service”) in action. The city is ready for it, now everything will depend on the initiatives of all actors in the field of urban mobility.
Talking about the cities of the future, many experts focus on technology and forget about the main thing – the inhabitants of the cities, those without whom the transformation would not make sense. Their health and well-being, creating conditions for their comfortable work and realization of their potential are the main priorities of any transformation.
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