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On January 19, Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said that he had three forecasts for the course of the fifth wave of the epidemic in Poland. Currently, the one that assumes rapid growth and faster decay of the phenomenon is being implemented. According to this scenario, the peak of the wave may come at the turn of January and February. What other experts say?
- The fifth wave of the epidemic has already started in Poland, related to the highly infectious variant of Omikron
- Although official data shows that it currently accounts for just over 22 percent. all infections, however, the actual scale of the phenomenon may be completely different. As said at the beginning of January, the drug. Bartosz Fiałek, there may be even several dozen times more infections with Omikron
- Earlier this week, Pfizer chief Albert Bourla ruled that the fifth wave may be the last to involve restrictions. This is not the only possible scenario
- More information can be found on the Onet homepage
Omikron in Poland. Niedzielski: We have three scenarios
The increases in the number of coronavirus infections observed in Poland (30 586 new cases on January 19) mean, according to the Minister of Health, that we already have the fifth wave of an epidemic in Poland related to the new Omikron variant. As Adam Niedzielski said during the press conference, the Ministry of Health has three possible scenarios for the next days and weeks. According to Niedzielski, one of them is being implemented, in which we observe a rapid increase in the number of infections, followed by a faster extinction of the phenomenon. If this trend continues, the peak of the fifth wave can be expected at the turn of January and February. Niedzielski did not say what the other two scenarios look like.
Similar predictions in an interview with Medonet were presented earlier by Prof. Andrzej M. Fal, head of the Department of Allergology, Lung Diseases and Internal Diseases at the hospital of the Ministry of Interior and Administration, president of the Polish Society of Public Health.
– I would not like to be a fortuneteller, because it is not a matter of looking at a glass ball or coffee grounds, but rationalizing it, it seems that if nothing new happens in the context of restrictions, the end of January is a very likely date for the wave of Omikron infections in Poland – he said expert.
- Also check: Delta or Omikron – how to recognize which variant infected us? Tips and important note
Prof. dr hab. med. Krzysztof J. Filipiak.
– What the minister called the “post-holiday anomaly” was probably the beginning of the Omikron march in Poland. The fifth wave is already rising, and various mathematical models indicate that it will peak either in January / February or February, although there are also models that say it will last until March. So we have a hard six weeks ahead of us, with significant spikes in infections.
The difficult situation of the health care system in Poland in the fifth wave is reflected in the conversation with many experts. They emphasize that the Omikron variant is milder, but also more infectious, which can put a heavy burden on hospitals.
– I think that the health care system will be difficult for weeks and months. Undoubtedly, it will be worse or more difficult where the percentage of vaccinated people is lower, there will simply be more infections there. Not everyone wants to hear it and we have been seeing the consequences for a month and a half. Unfortunately, everything indicates that we will be watching them for a long time – predicted prof. Halyard.
According to prof. Filipiak, the fifth wave may actually slow down a bit, which would confirm the assumptions of the model discussed by Minister Niedzielski.
– The only light in the tunnel for me is, paradoxically, that the omicron wave arrives with a certain delay, just after the XNUMXth wave contamination. Perhaps, then, the cumulative immunity after the infection has just passed, plus a mediocre grafting, will help to slow down the momentum of this wave. – the expert predicted.
The rest of the text is below the video.
Pfizer chief: this could be the last wave of this kind
Earlier this week, Pfizer chief Albert Bourla told a French TV station that the pandemic could end after the fifth wave caused by the Omikron variant.
“The coronavirus will continue to circulate for many years to come, but the wave associated with the Omikron variant should be the last one that is associated with numerous limitations,” he predicted.
We asked the doctor and science popularizer Bartosz Fiałek to comment on these words. The expert emphasized that we are dealing here with “pure speculation”, because no one really knows how the coronavirus pandemic will unfold.
– Of course, it can be assumed that due to the increasing number of vaccinated people and those whose immunity will be naturally generated by COVID-19 caused by the Omikron variant, the next wave will not be as strong. That it would not cause so many hospitalizations or deaths. However, we do not know this. After the wave caused by the Omikron variant, the virus will continue to evolve. And it is possible that the pathogen’s variability will not lead to the creation of the “Omega” variant responsible for the next epidemic wave – says Fiałek.
- Editors recommend: The fifth wave has attacked. Which provinces have the most infections?
What are the possible pandemic scenarios? Two options
Bow. Bartosz Fiałek stated that the further course of the pandemic cannot be predicted with certainty. There are two possible scenarios.
– We have two scenarios. We may face an epidemic, with ups and downs, or an endemic one, with a relatively constant number of cases. The second version seems less likely, given the wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections that occur when the virus hits a less resistant population. However, as I mentioned, it is impossible to clearly predict which of these scenarios will come true. The head of Pfizer may be right. Perhaps the Omikron variant will infect so many people that, in combination with the growing number of people vaccinated, it will be possible to build a high “immune wall” in society. And then even a large number of infections will not translate into huge numbers of hospitalizations and deaths. However, it may also turn out that the head of Pfizer will be wrong and after a few months of relative peace, another pandemic wave will appear. Nobody in the world can predict this. This is pure speculation – adds Bartosz Fiałek.
Prof. Filipiak.
– It seems that COVID-19, due to excellent vaccination, in some countries will first become an endemic disease, then probably a seasonal disease, and it will stay with us forever. I do not rule out that it will require seasonal vaccinations, as we recommend seasonal flu vaccinations today. Anyway, some pharmaceutical companies are already working on a vaccine that will be both a flu vaccine and a COVID-19 vaccine. But we will see. We are still learning about this pandemic – says prof. dr hab. med. Krzysztof J. Filipiak.
Do you want to test your COVID-19 immunity after vaccination? Have you been infected and want to check your antibody levels? See the COVID-19 immunity test package, which you will perform at Diagnostics network points.
Also read:
- “Coagulation cascade”. A neurologist explains why people with COVID-19 often have strokes and strokes
- 20 symptoms of Omicron. These are the most common
- “All those who want to live should get vaccinated.” Is it enough to protect yourself from the Omicron?
- How to wear masks in winter? The rule is more important than ever. Experts observe
- The Omicron Wave is approaching. 10 things that can stop her
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