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The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has been officially in the world for six months. During that time, over 7 million people were infected and over 400 died. What did we learn about SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it causes in these six months? «The Guardian» summarized what we know to date.
- The virus has been with us for several months. And although scientists get to know it better every day, there are still many unknowns
- “After six months of living with COVID-19, the most important thing we have learned is that we will have to live a normal life, while the disease will still be around,” says Prof. Mark Woolhouse
- Experts say finding a way to protect seniors most vulnerable to infection and severe complications is one of the most important tasks facing governments around the world right now.
- Will the vaccine be the solution to the problem? Experts cool down the enthusiasm a bit – even if the vaccine is created and effective, the challenge will be to produce and deliver it to every person in the world
The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus officially appeared in China six months ago, in December 2019. Two studies from France suggest that the virus appeared in Europe even earlier – in November or December, which may suggest that the date of the first confirmed case is not the actual date of the coronavirus outbreak. The first documented case occurred in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei Province.
See also: Patient Zero from Wuhan? She had symptoms of coronavirus in December 2019
So far, over 7 million people have been infected in the world, 400 have died. The whole world had to adapt to life again. Blockades were introduced, borders were closed, the mobility of citizens was limited, economies were suspended. Six months have passed and new outbreaks of the disease keep appearing. After China, it was time for Italy and the whole of Europe, then the United States joined, now the pandemic has hit South America and Africa.
What have we managed to learn about COVID-19 and the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes it during these six months? More importantly, what questions will we have to answer in the next six months?
- Coronavirus in the world. Current statistics
Were we ready for a pandemic?
According to The Guardian, scientists emphasize that the world was badly prepared for the pandemic. Although the WHO has warned that in the coming years, Disease X may appear in the world, which has not yet been identified, but could pose a serious threat and appear at any time. Is COVID-19 Disease X? According to WHO expert Dr. Marion Koopmans, this is likely. “Coronavirus fits the first real pandemic challenge of disease X,” wrote Dr. Koopmans in the medical journal Cell.
Martin Hibberd, professor of new infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, believes that “this disease turned out to be far worse than any other pandemic we expected and planned to counteract”.
David Nabarro, professor of global health at Imperial College London and WHO expert, highlighted how much we learned about COVID-19 in those six months. “When we first saw this disease, we thought it was only affecting the upper respiratory tract,” Nabarro said. However, the more research on COVID-19, the more symptoms appear.
The virus can cause sinus disease, it can affect the lining of blood vessels, and lead to blood clots. Coronavirus infection has also been linked to extreme fatigue, kidney damage, heart attacks and strokes (especially in young people). More and more reports suggest that coronavirus infection can also be dangerous for children, although previously they seemed to pass the disease mildly. “This disease should not be underestimated,” says Nabarro.
What do we know about the course of COVID-19?
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Another specialist, Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, explains that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus will not disappear in the near future. “After six months of living with COVID-19, the most important thing we have learned is that we will have to live a normal life while the disease is still around.”
With this in mind, ways will have to be found in the coming months to stop the transmission of the disease without resorting to the same restrictions as before. As Woolhouse admits, it will not be easy.
How to protect people from risk groups?
The observations so far show that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is much more dangerous for the elderly (75+). Woolhouse explains that the chance of a person over the age of 75 will die of infection is 10 times greater than that of an infected 000-year-old. “It’s really striking.”
Problems with the effects of the disease on adults begin as they reach their 50s and increase with each passing year of life. “This means that a large proportion of our population – those over the age of 75 – need protection against the coronavirus as the consequences are very serious for them.”
But Woolhouse wonders if it is right to lock up grandchildren to save grandparents? “In a way, that’s what we’ve been doing so far,” she notes. One of Woolhouse’s ideas is to maintain strict controls and to put in place safety systems in places such as retirement homes. All staff will need to be tested for coronavirus infection.
The expert realizes that the plan has gaps, because the vast majority of seniors do not live in nursing homes, but in their own homes, and it is much more difficult to maintain the sanitary regime there. Finding a way to protect seniors most vulnerable to infection and severe complications is one of the most important tasks facing governments around the world right now.
See also: Sweden increases spending on the protection of patients in nursing homes
Epidemic data testing and collection
According to the WHO, testing is the best way to see how large an epidemic is. As new virus and antibody tests develop, we should have a much better understanding of how the coronavirus appeared and spread around the world.
“Until now, we have relied heavily on mathematical models to try to understand how the virus behaves and spreads in communities. But mathematical models are only as good as the data they get, »explains Anne Johnson, professor of epidemiology at University College London.
The more accurate and better the testing, the better the data can be provided to the mathematical models. Johnson noted that asymptomatic carriers are a major concern when it comes to tracking and controlling COVID-19 transmission. «At first, we did not realize that people, unknowingly, could infect others. It was a key discovery of the last few months ». According to the expert, collecting detailed epidemiological data should be a priority in the coming months.
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Key questions about COVID-19 resistance
Six months was not enough to answer the key questions about COVID-19 resistance in people who have passed the infection. “Research suggests an increase in antibodies in the blood of patients after infection, which could be a protection against further infections,” explains Hibberd. Scientists’ estimates suggest that protection may last from six months to several years. “However, we need to know exactly how long this protection lasts, as it will have a significant impact on the development of the disease in the population.”
The longer the antibodies provide protection, the slower the disease spreads. Scientists are looking for people who become infected at an early stage to run blood tests. «Does the number of antibodies in the blood stay constant or does it start to decline after just a few months? We must find answers to these questions »adds Hibberd.
Medical care for COVID-19 patients also improved significantly during these six months. At the beginning of the pandemic, at a time of the greatest increase in new cases, the struggle to save patients in hospitals overwhelmed by critical difficulties was very hard and demanding.
“We are now much better at identifying those who will need intensive care and those who may be sick at home,” Tom Wingfield, a Liverpool School clinician from Tropical Medicine, told The Guardian.
As the pandemic progressed, Wingfield points out that many new solutions emerged, such as the ability to maintain adequate airway pressure at all times, and others that helped patients survive.
There are still many unknowns about the disease. «Many patients have blood clots and the more severe the disease is, the more likely they are to develop them. We do not yet know which patients should receive blood thinning medications from the day of arrival to help prevent clotting. We also do not know how long we should continue this treatment. We are constantly collecting data on the symptoms of the disease, ”adds Wingfield.
Zobacz:
- Many COVID-19 patients die of thrombosis
- A defective clotting mechanism is responsible for the severity of COVID-19?
- The unusual complications of COVID-19 include: strokes in young people
Vaccine and effective treatment
Despite the loud announcements and declarations of pharmaceutical companies, experts mostly believe that there is still a long way to go to obtain an effective vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. As Woolhouse puts it – the vaccine is a hope, not a strategy.
Professor Krzysztof Pyrć spoke about the progress in the work on the vaccine:
– Only at the end of the research will we know if we have the vaccine or not. We have been trying to make a coronavirus vaccine for 20 years and have not yet succeeded. However, I hope that by engaging such large resources, processing capacity and smart people, we will be able to do it.
Nabarro said in turn that we must abandon this delusional feeling that everything will resolve itself when a vaccine comes out to save us at the end of this year. “It will not happen. Even when we develop a vaccine that is safe and works, the question remains of how we get it to the 7,8 billion people on our planet. The global elimination of the disease is a very difficult process. Polio is fine, but we are still trying to get rid of, for example, measles ».
More than a vaccine, scientists see a solution in effective antiviral therapy. Several drugs and drug combinations are currently being tested that appear to be the most promising in the fight against COVID-19.
«Some of them may contribute to reducing the mortality rate from 1%. up to 0,1 percent Coupled with improved testing and a better understanding of the immune system and immune response to COVID-19, we will be in a much better position in the next six months than we are now. I hope so »concluded Hibberd.
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