Grzesiowski: we act blindly, on the principle: we close it all or nothing

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This is the problem – the clash of our scientific foundations with politics, with propaganda. Probably at the moment it is still the case that decisions regarding the pandemic are made by people from PR, and not crisis management specialists – said Paweł Grzesiowski, an expert of the Supreme Medical Council on COVID-19.

Is the regionalization of restrictions the right decision? Grzesiowski: we have very late decisions here and are based on a zero-one action, that is – the entire voivodeship and not poviats, half of Poland, not selected voivodships
He added that a very high number of new infections did not concern the whole of Warmia and Mazury, but 2-3 poviats
These are still trials and tests, not a ready concept of crisis management based on indicators – said Grzesiowski when asked about the assessment of the government’s action plan
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On Radio Zet, Grzesiowski was asked whether the regionalization of pandemic management is the right thing to do. – Regionalization of pandemic management in a country as large as Poland is even a necessity. But here we have very late decisions based on zero-one action, that is – the entire voivodeship and not poviats, half of Poland, not selected voivodeships – he assessed.

In his opinion, regional management should be very precise, very deeply based on the knowledge of where the infections come from, and at the same time targeted, i.e. one that will result in a real reduction in the number of cases. According to Grzesiowski, “ignorance is the biggest problem”. – We do not have detailed data on where the infections come from, so these actions are a bit blind, we close all or nothing – he added.

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Note that Minister Niedzielski said that these decisions were made after consultation with analysts, incl. from the University of Warsaw replied that “analysts are not epidemiologists, but mathematicians. “Data has been exchanged between different teams for months, but the mathematical model is not crisis management,” he said.

When asked later on in the program whether the government had an action plan, he replied that he had the impression that “these are still trials and tests, and not a ready-made crisis management concept based on indicators”. – If that were the case, these indicators would be shared with us. Let me remind you that when the pandemic in New York broke out, a list of seven indicators was established that determined the fact that a given district would be yellow, green or red. These were the indicators also available in Poland, such as the number of tests, vacancies in the hospital, the number of hospitalizations, deaths, cases, etc., was a clear algorithm that was followed – he said.

In his opinion, there is no such management system in Poland. – The government should take care of the preparation of the pandemic management algorithm. First, a team of analysts should meet, i.e. mathematicians plus people from crisis management, but not voivodes, but specialists in mass event management, and only then, after developing a concept, it should land on the desks of politicians who are subject to various pressures, other mechanisms than just mechanisms substantive – he assessed.

In the opinion of Grzesiowski, “there is always a problem – the clash of our scientific and substantive foundations with politics, with propaganda, which in my opinion largely rules and it is probably still the case that the final decision is made by people from PR, not by people in crisis management ». Asked about the medical advice at the prime minister, he replied that he refused to comment on the matter because he doubted that the medical council had any influence on these decisions.

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Referring to yesterday’s introduction of the lockdown in Warmia and Mazury, he said that “we are introducing (lockdown-PAP) in the entire voivodship, although we know that in Warmia and Mazury, the greatest number of infections is in 2-3 poviats. We block the entire voivodship with no guarantee that it will bring the expected effect ». In Grzesiowski’s opinion, this is an old type of management – all or nothing. – This activity is not based on a thorough data analysis strategy. Something is happening in a region and we are introducing mass solutions, not very delicate – when it comes to protecting the economy and society, it is not very delicate – he emphasized.

When asked about the health minister’s estimates that the peak of infections would be at the turn of March and April, the expert replied that it was “a very bold concept, because if the British variant of the virus is present in Poland – and it is – the third wave is accelerating very quickly. ». “If we look at the British experience, it was all hell there in three weeks,” he noted.

In his opinion, “if the British variant of the virus is dominant in Poland, we will not wait until April, but in two or three weeks there will be 25. illnesses a day ». – First of all, we have to look at hard data, i.e. data on hospitalizations. If we see that there are 500 patients in hospitals a day, we know that the situation is very bad. This does not apply to the entire country, but to four or five provinces. He pointed out that Bydgoszcz, Warsaw, Gdańsk and Zielona Góra are cities where there are many new cases that end in hospitalization. “I wonder why Warmia and Masuria were subject to such a lockdown, and not Mazowsze or the district of Warsaw,” he added.

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When asked where the sudden increase in the incidence came from, he replied that it was not a sudden increase. – If we look at the hard data, the first upward trends could be noticed on January 30, that is, two weeks after the schools were launched, after the opening of shopping malls – he explained.

– I still do not know where the infections are coming from, if we look at the geographical and regional structure, large cities and metropolitan counties dominate. The high density of schools and commercial facilities, but perhaps this greater mobility of people related to the relaxation resulted in effects – he assessed.

The expert cited the results of research conducted before the opening of schools, which showed that 0,5 percent. teachers a day had coronavirus. – We know that the teachers are sowing the virus, they were not accosted and started working. As a result, several hundred infected teachers came to work. We now have 400 schools where the virus has occurred. On a national scale it is not much, but for example in Warsaw schools it is a visible problem – he said.

Author: Olga Łozińska

Grzesiowski: we act blindly, on the principle: we close it all or nothing

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